Andrea Kimi Antonelli is off to Brazil for his first race as the new F1 champion at the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, but our F1 experts are not unanimously backing him to get the win.

Mercedes gem Antonelli became the youngest-ever F1 champion last time out at the Mexico City Grand Prix, as the 20-year-old secured P3 at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez to open an unassailable lead atop the standings.

With that in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers have offered their predictions for the 2026 Sao Paulo GP – from who could rival Antonelli for the race win to the biggest surprise…

Which driver is the favourite to score pole position for the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Max Verstappen: “Qualifying for the Sao Paulo Grand Prix will go one of two ways depending on the weather, with a 60% chance of rain interrupting the session. If Q3 stays dry, then Andrea Kimi Antonelli will put his Mercedes W17 on pole at Interlagos. But if enough rain falls during Q3, then expect Red Bull racer Max Verstappen to score pole by more than 0.5s.”

Sean Fisher – Max Verstappen: “There is no denying that Red Bull driver Max Verstappen is on a hot streak, and he is usually extremely quick in Brazil. With rain forecast too, I think that only adds to Verstappen’s chances.”

Ashley Hambly – Kimi Antonelli: “I’m predicting nothing but dominance from Kimi Antonelli this weekend in Brazil, now that he has finally clinched the world title. While there wasn’t much pressure before, there certainly isn’t any now. He’ll take a lot of confidence into this weekend, and kick it off with a pole position on Saturday afternoon.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Lewis Hamilton: “Can lightning strike twice? I think so. The Ferrari SF-26 is more than capable of battling at the front, as Lewis Hamilton proved in Mexico. Interlagos is also one of his strongest tracks, so I back him to lead the charge again for the Prancing Horse.”

David Comerford – George Russell: “I don’t think George Russell will emulate what we saw from Nico Rosberg in 2015 and win every race after his teammate’s coronation, because Mercedes no longer have a dominant package.

“However, I think he has a good chance this weekend on the circuit where he took his first race victory in Formula 1. Mercedes’ power unit advantage should also make the difference, so I’ll back him for pole and the win.”

Who will win the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, and who will join on the podium in Brazil?

Kyle Archer – Antonelli, Hamilton, Verstappen: “The Mexico City Grand Prix podium will be one of the defining images of the season, as Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton lifted Andrea Kimi Antonelli onto their shoulders after he joined them in the F1 drivers’ champion club.

“Now, F1 heads on to Brazil, and the same trio of drivers will reach the rostrum in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix – albeit with Hamilton finishing ahead of Verstappen, like he should have in Mexico City were it not for his first lap duel with Charles Leclerc letting the Red Bull racer in.”

Sean Fisher – Verstappen, Antonelli, Hamilton: “If Max Verstappen starts on pole like I predicted, I can only see him winning the Sao Paulo GP on Sunday.

“It will be a special day for newly-crowned champion Kimi Antonelli, who will be paying homage to his idol Ayrton Senna with a unique helmet design, and I anticipate another podium for the young Italian.

“Lewis Hamilton has also found some form with his Ferrari, and the track layout of Interlagos should suit their aero strengths.”

Ashley Hambly – Antonelli, Hamilton, Verstappen: “Newly-crowned 2026 F1 world champion Kimi Antonelli initially showcased his skill set at Interlagos last year, through his clinching of a second podium in the sport. He’s come a long way in the year since, and will certainly have earmarked the top step of the Interlagos rostrum this week as one that he’ll want to stand on.

“Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen will be difficult foes to get the better of, but I don’t quite think the Ferrari SF-26 or the Red Bull RB22 will have the same level of pace as the Mercedes W17.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Verstappen, Hamilton, Russell: “Max Verstappen versus Lewis Hamilton round two, but with the same outcome as Mexico. I’m excited to see what will hopefully be an entertaining battle between these two, on a track that they both love. George Russell is also strong at Interlagos, so I’m going with the rogue shout of him grabbing a much-needed P3.”

David Comerford – Russell, Verstappen, Norris: “Max Verstappen will finish the Sao Paulo GP in second place behind George Russell, continuing the former’s impressive run of podiums. Lando Norris will also get McLaren back in the top three after a five-race drought.”

Who will be the biggest surprise at the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Fernando Alonso: “Two-time F1 champion Fernando Alonso has shown enough times that he is still very competitive when Aston Martin (and engine partner Honda) can give him a competitive car. So, on that basis, it would not be that surprising to see Alonso impress at the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix given that Interlagos’ layout could play into their strengths. But Aston Martin are flying to Brazil on the back of a double DNF thanks to Honda in Mexico.”

Sean Fisher – Isack Hadjar: “It has been a difficult (and frustrating) few weeks for Isack Hadjar, but he has a good record at Interlagos after qualifying in P5 there last year with Racing Bulls as a rookie. So, after his P9 finish in Mexico City, I’m expecting a strong response in Sao Paulo.”

Ashley Hambly – Aston Martin: “Silverstone-based Aston Martin were tipped for a strong showing in Mexico City, before Honda’s engine came back to bite them once again and scuppered the efforts of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll after just a handful of laps.

“Still, the fight for P9 in the constructors’ championship is still alive, and Interlagos could be a good opportunity for Aston Martin to capitalise on Williams’ struggles.”

David Comerford – George Russell: “George Russell was described as ‘distraught’ after the Mexico City Grand Prix, and he’s generally been pretty anonymous since his last win in Baku. But I think Russell will look like a different driver this weekend after pressing reset and dominate the Sao Paulo GP weekend.”