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Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Who Wins and Why for Week 9

How the positional groups match up between Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a pick on the game's final outcome.

Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is tackled against the Bears after a reception. | USA TODAY Sports

Maybe it's simply being in the same building with Cris Collinsworth. Or maybe it's the Cody Parkey curse.

There must be some supernatural or paranormal explanation for this aversion the Bears seem to have to playing on Sunday Night Football. Maybe they just don't like the Carrie Underwood song, "Waiting All Day for Sunday Night."

The last time the Bears won on Sunday Night Football, they had Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack as their tag team inside-out pass rushers instead of Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons. They had Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback and he was throwing a touchdown pass to backup tackle Bradley Sowell, a play former coach Matt Nagy called "Santa's Sleigh." The game was their 15-6 victory over Jared Goff and the L.A. Rams.

Since then it's been 11 straight Sunday Night Football defeats. It's 12 if you count the loss to open the 2019 NFL season, which was also on NBC and worked by the Sunday Night Football announcers. However, that game was played on a Thursday night and not Sunday.

The list includes three obligatory losses to the Packers and two postseason losses. The loss that started the streak was the double-doink game in the 2018 playoffs.

Bears SNF losing streak

  • Jan. 18, 2026: Rams 20, Bears 17 OT* (home)
  • Dec. 28, 2025: 49ers 42, Bears 38 (road)
  • Sept. 15, 2024: Texans 19, Bears 13 (road)
  • Oct. 29, 2023: Chargers 30, Bears 13 (road)
  • Sept. 18, 2022: Packers 27, Bears 10 (road)
  • Dec. 12, 2021: Packers 45, Bears 30 (road)
  • Sept. 12, 2021: Rams 34, Bears 14 (road)
  • Nov. 29, 2020: Packers 41, Bears 25 (road)
  • Dec. 22, 2019 Chiefs 26, Bears 3 (home)
  • Nov. 17, 2019: Rams 17, Bears 7 (road)
  • Jan. 6, 2019: Eagles 16, Bears 15 (home)*

Can they end the streak? In fairness to coach Ben Johnson, only two of the losses belong to him. Both were scintillating games. Besides the Rams playoff loss, they also had the wild 42-38 game at San Francisco last season that many deemed the most exciting game of the regular season.

They've often found themselves overmatched in these games and that explains much of the streak -- at least they were overmatched prior to Johnson.

The Bears will try to end their long losing streak on SNF against the Buccaneers and this time they're favorites Sunday on the lakefront. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Buccaneers run defense

Defensive lineman Vita Vea, linebacker Alex Anzalone, and linebacker YaYa Diaby have helped the Bucs surge to No. 1 against the run and no team has run for 100 yards on them since the season opener. The 3.6 yards a carry they allow is fourth best and accomplished with numerous 7- or 8-man boxes. The Bears have been gradually increasing their rushing yards over the past three games, all wins. But they obviously miss Kyle Monangai as they're overworking D'Andre Swift. Another negative factor for the Bears' second-ranked running attack is Theo Benedet's shoulder injury that could leave them starting Ozzy Trapilo before they would really like him taking a lot of reps. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Buccaneers pass defense

Caleb Williams has thrown just one interception on the year and has six TD passes but he's completing just 53.6% on third downs despite being at 70.6% for the year. Williams has found his big 3 with regularity: Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, and Kalif Raymond sneaks in to damage opponents. The Bucs are ninth against the pass but No. 1 in interceptions with Anzalone leading the with three picks. The Bucs' pass rush gets a lot of credit but they're only 21st in sacks per game and 29th in press percentage despite blitzing the eighth most times per Pro Football Reference. Edge to Bears

Buccaneers running vs. Bears run defense

The Bears have pulled themselves up into 11th in yards allowed per rush and third in run defense and prior to last week it was because opponents had to give up on the run to keep pace with their high-scoring offense. Now, with Jeffery Simmons on board, the run defense looks more legit. Bucs' Bucky Irving is a fun runner to watch but not the biggest guy at 5-10, 195. Averaging 5.0 yards a carry is impressive and credit their improved offensive line here. Irving cracked 100 yards in three of the last four games. Curiously, though, two of the opponents are 30th or worst stopping the run and the best one was 18th. Is it a running game good only against weaker teams? No Edge

Buccaneers passing vs. Bears pass defense

Normally Baker Mayfield would be someone to fear but he's playing with an injured thumb and has thrown only 14 passes since returning from the injury, completing none last week. When the Buccaneers do complete passes, they're for shorter yardage. Mayfield averages only 6.2 yards per attempt. Chris Godwin is averaging only 9.0 yards a catch. The Bears' pass defense needs to pick up its half of the rush-and-cover combo with Simmons and Montez Sweat terrorizing QBs. Linebacker T.J. Edwards had an outstanding game last week in pass defense. Edge Bears

Special teams

Tampa Bay returner Tez Johnson is at a solid 10.4 for punt returns and the team averages 27.4 on kicks, while kicker Chase McLaughlin hasn't missed a field goal or extra point. The Bears are eighth in covering punts but this could be an opportunity for Kalif Raymond because Tampa Bay is allowing 13.5 yards per return, 29th in the league. The Buccaneers are better covering kicks, ranking eighth but the Bears are even better at third with a 23.0-yard average. No Edge

Coaching

Todd Bowles has been respected for his defense for a long time in the league and has consistently had his team in the playoff hunt in a poor division. Tampa Bay's offense has had plenty of problems, although coordinator Zac Robinson has found something with his line's blocking schemes now. Ben Johnson's record against Bowles in Detroit was 1-1 and in neither game did his offense explode, but Tampa Bay's offense didn't either. Dennis Allen's ability to scheme up a front to shut down the Buccaneers on first and second down could be a key. The Buccaneers would have problems in third-and-long or medium facing the NFL's best third-down defense. No Edge

Intangibles

It's all favoring Tampa Bay with the Bears operating on a short work week, and with the Sunday Night Football jinx working against Chicago (12 straight losses). Teams operating with an edge in preparation time this year are 29-9. Edge to Buccaneers

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 6 (over/under 46 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 26, Buccaneers 19

Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 2-6 (Overall 3-5, 3-5 over/under)

Key to Bears win: Holding Tampa Bay to 7 yards or less on the first two downs, and avoiding interceptions. It's been turnovers that have lifted the Buccaneers in their last two games.

Bears and Buccaneers betting trends

  • Tampa Bay is 2-4 when it's the betting underdog this season
  • The Bears are 6-2 against the spread this season
  • Tampa Bay is 3-4-1 against the spread this season
  • Tampa Bay was a 6 1/2-point underdog once this season and covered
  • The Bears covered and won their last three games and it's been over the total in all three
  • The home team has won the last six games in this series
  • The Bears are 8-0 in their last eight games when they had 350 yards the previous game. They had 363 Monday night
  • It's been under the total in five of Tampa Bay's last six on the road
  • The Bears have gone 4-0 ATS when facing teams with a losing record
  • The Bears have covered in their last four November games

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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