Trying to predict a Springbok team lineup under coach Rassie Erasmus is almost impossible, and he didn’t disappoint this week by naming his best squad for a clash against an injury-decimated Italy.

With Tests against France and Ireland to come in the final stages of the inaugural Nations Championship, the general feeling was that Italy would offer the most logical opportunity to experiment with new combinations.

But Erasmus has laid out his stall early, going with the bulk of the team that beat the All Blacks 3-1 in the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry (RGR) series.

There are six uncapped players in the 37-man touring group in Italy, and none was selected. It’s clear that they are there to learn and absorb the team culture and come to grips with the Test match environment.

Naturally, social media has made the most of the Boks going full strength for what, on paper, looks like their easiest match of a tricky month on northern fields.

“What did Italy say to Rassie to upset him so much?” is the general gist of the comments. A full-strength Bok team must have come as a slight surprise to Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada, who has the opposite problem, missing 17 players through injury.

But as always with Erasmus, there is method behind the seemingly baffling madness.

Japanese contingent

The simplest explanation is that Erasmus might be treating this bloc of games in a similar way to the RGR series, where he largely stuck to his “core” big-game players.

With four games in four consecutive weekends to come, which is what the RGR demanded, there will surely be some rotation, possibly for game three against Ireland.

Erasmus also has a swathe of Japanese-based players in the squad, who have not had a game since the RGR ended on 12 September.

They need playing time again, and Italy presents a great opportunity, against strong opponents, to allow the likes of Malcolm Marx to blow out some cobwebs.

Erasmus has selected 10 Japanese-based players in the match day 23, underlining that thought process.

Another factor is that the Boks, after the high of the RGR success, have been stewing over a chastening loss to the Wallabies in Perth six weeks ago.

Erasmus made wholesale changes for that game, expecting players who had little or no opportunity in the RGR to step up, but they imploded miserably, losing 42-38.

The residual effects of that setback are still permeating through the ranks.

Although Erasmus spoke at length about his team selection, he didn’t give too much away on his thought processes for the entire tour, choosing to focus on Italy.

“We have three challenging matches ahead if we want to advance to the last game of the finals weekend, so our next three matches are going to be vital to lay a strong foundation for the tour,” Erasmus said.

“Fortunately, some of the Japan-based players were able to travel to Italy earlier than the rest of the squad, so they have been working with some of the coaching staff for a few days already.

“They are fully in the swing of things, while we had our first training session on Monday afternoon, so everyone is now on the same page.”

Rigid, but fluid?

The Boks under Erasmus are generally rigid in their team selections, with players knowing, internally, who will play when.

It is not uncommon for players to know, before departing on tour, which games they will be part of, injury permitting.

But Erasmus has also occasionally changed tack on gut feel, as he did between Auckland and Wellington against the All Blacks in 2025.

After losing 24-17 at Eden Park, he rejigged the team dramatically, veering from the original plan.

Even his assistant coaches were unsure that it was the right tactic, but they fell into line quickly and in a few hours, the entire squad had bought into the new plan.

The result was a record 43-10 win over the All Blacks.

For now, there is a plan in place for this tour that will be clear to the players, which begins with this strong team chosen to earn a maximum five log points and boost the Boks’ overall points difference.

The Nations Championship standings have the Boks leading the Southern Hemisphere standings with a maximum 15 log points. The All Blacks are on the same, but with an inferior points difference. Both teams won all three matches in July, and ironically, both could end the six-match phase with six wins and still not make the final.

“With the majority of the squad having played together for most of the season, we are confident that the players who participated in the United Rugby Championship and French Top 14 will ease into things seamlessly this week at training,” Erasmus said.

“The fact that they are battle hardened after a few tough matches, will offer us a good balance with fresh players raring to go and others who come off a few challenging matches for their franchises and clubs.”

The only player in the group who will make his first appearance in the green and gold jersey this season is lock Salmaan Moerat.

He missed the first leg of the Nations Championship and the RGR due to neck and toe injuries.

Moerat and Ruan Nortjé form the second-row partnership, which features the front row of Ox Nché, Thomas du Toit and Malcolm Marx.

Captain Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese will pack down behind them in the loose trio.

The Bok backline is equally settled, with halfbacks Morné van den Berg and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu starting together as they did in Baltimore in the fourth RGR match.

The experienced midfield pairing of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel will extend their record partnership to 49 games.

Ethan Hooker, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse form an exciting back three.

Erasmus opted for a 6/2 split between forwards and backs among the reserves.

Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp and Wilco Louw will serve as the back-up front row, with Lood de Jager providing lock cover.

Cameron Hanekom and Paul de Villiers complete the forward complement, while Grant Williams and Manie Libbok will provide backline support. DM