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The NFL’s overpaid QB problem
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did something historic on Sunday afternoon: Winning a game where the quarterback was utterly inconsequential. It was the first time since 1974 that a team won a game when the team didn’t complete a single pass, as Baker Mayfield’s job was tantamount to a server, carrying a meal from the pass to a customer.

Tampa won because of its run game. Not every team can rely on getting over 300 yards on the ground, or flourishing in horrible conditions — but the Mayfield’s complete lack of impact underscored a larger issue we’re seeing around the league right now, which is that the vast majority of quarterbacks are being woefully overpaid for a lack of impact.

There are 13 quarterbacks currently in the league who account for a $30M cap hit or more on their respective teams. The vast majority of those players have been incredibly mediocre this season, to the point where they’re really not worth the money being spent on them. Not only are these players perfoming poorly, but the investment made in both direct cash and player support make them detrimental to their organizations.

  • Justin Herbert ($46.4M): The Chargers are 0-7. Herbert leads the NFL with 10 interceptions
  • Dak Prescott ($44.6M): The Cowboys are 3-5. Prescott has led one game-winning drive
  • Deshaun Watson ($40.6M): The Browns are 5-3, no thanks to Watson who is 16th in passing yards
  • Baker Mayfield ($34M): The Buccaneers are 3-5. Mayfield didn’t complete a single pass
  • Jalen Hurts ($31.9M): The Eagles are 2-6. Jalen Hurts is injured, but prior to that Philly was struggling

Beyond these five players, we could argue that Joe Burrow and the Bengals aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, needing overtime against the hopeless Titans and struggling in the AFC North. The same can be said for Lamar Jackson’s endless injury issues, Jordan Love’s inability to routinely control a game, or Sam Darnold’s inconsistency. Time, and time, and time again, we’re seeing big-name, marquee quarterbacks struggling to adapt to a new NFL that is placing a greater emphasis on running the ball, controlling through defense, and designing specific blitz packages with the express purpose of disrupting quarterbacks.

There should be the expectation that when a single player on a 53-man roster is being paid upwards of 10% of a team’s salary cap, they would be able to mitigate some of that disruption, but it just isn’t happening. You’re out of luck unless you have a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, or a QB on a rookie contract — it’s just that simple. The issue as we move forwar is that there’s no way to turn back the clock, and this should be of real concern for NFL teams moving forward.

One of the biggest reasons that front offices around the league are still mad at the Browns for their ludicrous fully guaranteed Watson contract is that it set the market for quarterback contracts moving forward. Agents rubbed their palms like Birdman knowing someone was dumb enough to fully guarantee a deal, and that led to every QB wanting a large chunk of their money guaranteed. Also, by eclipsing the $40M mark per season as a guy who wasn’t a Top 3 quarterback, it gave every agent the argument to push their clients into the stratosphere.

Without the Watson contract, we don’t see a guy like Herbert signing a $262.5M deal. The idea of Matthew Stafford demanding $55M on a one-year deal doesn’t happen, and perhaps that could have meant funds for other positions so the team wasn’t 4-4 right now. What we have is a twofold problem: Quarterbacks are demanding more money than ever before, while also having a less dramatic impact than at any point in the last 20 years.

There is no correlation right now between overall team success and stellar QB performance. We are past the era of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees carrying teams by themselves — while also struggling in a “greed is good” era, where QBs are happy to demand as much money as possible, regardless of whether it makes a team weaker or not as a result. Unquestionably, every player deserves to “get theirs,” but that logic rings hollow when a guy like Baker Mayfield is making $34M this season and doing absolutely nothing, while the two running backs who actually won the game for Tampa Bay are earning a combined $8.1M while rushing for 310 yards.

The NFL is in dire need of a salary reset at quarterback. I’m not advocating that these guys go back to making $10M a season, because they’re still the most important players on the field, but lord knows we shouldn’t be living in an era where quarterbacks are making as much as 10 to 15 times their teammates combined while not really affecting the game.

At this point the only thing that can change the tide is if we see a running back-style change to how teams approach the position. Instead of drafting a QB high, then hoping to saddle the team to them for the next decade — perhaps the better approach is for teams to look at the quarterback as expendable. Draft one, play them during the rookie deal, then move on. We saw this happen to running backs, and as a result the cream rose to the top and the only guys getting those major contracts were transformative players.

It’s time we treat QBs the same way.

Now for the winners and losers of Week 8 in the NFL.

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers aren’t a great football team, but they are really benefiting from the fact the AFC North is collapsing around them. Yes, the Bengals won — but only narrowly over the Titans, the worst team in football. The Steelers proved they’re dramatically better than the Browns, and the Ravens have nobody who can throw a football anymore.

Ultimately the mood in the AFC North transformed from “this is anyone’s division,” to “Pittsburgh is going to run away with this.” It’s another year where it feels like the Steelers will make the playoffs, then get bounced early — and we look back wondering, “how did that run even happen?” There’s value in simply outlasting everyone else, and Pittsburgh are the kings of it.

Loser: Any team needing a quarterback right now

The NFL’s two purple teams are in dire need of quarterback help, and it’s difficult to see where it will come from. Kyler Murray is cooked, showing almost nothing in the Vikings’ loss to Detroit. The big issue with Murray is that he just can’t consistently move the ball downfield, and has a tendency to get tunnel vision on his tight ends. The Minnesota offense is godawful, and they have to find a passer who can actually string together some drives.

Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson for the season with a thumb injury, and now Tyler Huntley has turf toe. It’s all bad, and with Joe Fagono AND Skylar Thompson hurt there is literally nobody else who can throw the ball.

The news is so bad for teams looking for quarterbacks. Where is the help coming from? Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, is someone going to try to re-tread Kenny Pickett again? The cupboards are empty in the NFL right now for a quality fill-in QB to get you through the end of the season.

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have had a comically easy schedule, with a host of floundering teams — then their only losses coming to the Broncos and Texans, who are somewhat competent. Still, you can only play the teams that show up on your schedule.

We have an AFC South which is such a wretched dumpster fire that Jacksonville will cruise to the playoffs, but inside that we have Trevor Lawrence making a legitimate MVP-caliber campaign that’s worth watching, and a defense that is incredibly stingy, and able to consistently give the team a chance.

I truly have no idea whether this team is a contender or a pretender, but they’re definitely someone to watch.

I have no idea what happened here. Over the span of this season we have seen the most dramatic pumpkin-ification of a quarterback, maybe ever. Here was a guy who was once seen as the league’s next elite passer due to his accuracy and decision-making, and now he’s transformed into a dude who sits on the bench having an existential crisis at the end of games.

This isn’t just an offense problem or an injury problem, because Herbert is playing atrocious football. Both of his interceptions came on plays where he simply totally overlooked the coverage and didn’t know where he was throwing, with the second being against a vanilla, base Cover-2 — something every QB should be able to diagnose.

Herbert is a mess right now, and I don’t know if the Chargers could trade him if they tried for another better than a mid-round pick.

Atlanta walked into this week being in prime position to take over the NFC South, and the Falcon’d it. The conditions were horrible, don’t get me wrong, but Atlanta didn’t do themselves any favors by simply getting outmuscled by a Buccaneers team that didn’t even need to throw the ball.

It takes some legendary defensive ineptitude to know exactly what the opponent is going to do on every snap (run the ball), and still have absolutely no way of stopping it.

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