Carlos Alcaraz has reached the last weekend of the Erste Bank Open without dropping a set, and he expects that to change on Saturday. “I will be ready for a battle physically,” the Spaniard said of his semifinal against Daniil Medvedev. “I will be ready for long rallies, and I will have to do a lot of things during the match, and I will have to do them perfectly.”

Beyond Medvedev lies a possible Sunday final against Alexander Zverev, who will become world No. 1 on Monday. Alcaraz, a wild card and seed No. 2 in Vienna, will not look that far ahead. “I’ve got to play tomorrow, against someone who’s playing great tennis,” he said. “Sascha has to win (agaisnt De Minaur, editor’s note). There are still a few steps he has to make, and I have to make, for the final.”

Alcaraz has studied the problem. “His style is pretty tough to play against: long rallies, long matches,” he said. “Right now, after two, three games, the ball becomes really fluffy, and it’s really difficult to generate power on the ball. I think he’s going to take advantage of it.”

Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 6-3, but Medvedev won the most recent meeting, a 6-3, 7-6 (3) victory in the Indian Wells semifinals in March, when Alcaraz was world No. 1.

Medvedev, the hottest player on Tour

Medvedev, seeded No. 3, is the hottest player on the tour. He won the Almaty title last Sunday and arrives on a seven-match winning streak. Since Sept. 26 he is 18-2, with five semifinals in five weeks, and his quarterfinal win in Vienna sealed his seventh ATP Finals qualification in eight years. He leads the tour with 41 hard-court wins this season and won the Vienna title in 2022.

The Spaniard is 14-0 at ATP 500 level this season and 24-0 since losing the 2025 Barcelona final to Holger Rune. On Saturday he bids for the 37th tour-level final of his career and the third indoors.

Number one? You don’t feel you’re the best player in the world. It’s just a ranking.

Zverev’s path runs through Alex de Minaur. The German leads their head-to-head 9-4, and the Australian is 0-8 against him outside team events. But de Minaur is unbeaten indoors this season at 9-0 after his win in Rotterdam, and he beat Zverev at the Laver Cup in September, 2-6, 7-6 (5), 11-9 in a match tiebreak.

A Zverev-Alcaraz final would be the meeting of the season’s two most decorated players outside Jannik Sinner. Zverev leads the tour with 65 wins and won Roland-Garros and the US Open this year. Alcaraz opened the year by winning the Australian Open, becoming the youngest man to complete the Career Grand Slam, at 22. On his way to that title, he beat Zverev in the semifinals, 6-4, 7-6 (5), 6-7 (3), 6-7 (4), 7-5. Alcaraz leads their rivalry 7-6. Their only meeting in Vienna went the other way: Zverev won the 2021 semifinal 6-3, 6-3 and went on to take the title.

Alcaraz knows exactly what Zverev is about to inherit. He first reached No. 1 in September 2022, at 19, and spent 66 weeks there. “You don’t feel special, to be honest,” he said. “You don’t feel you’re the best player in the world. It’s just a ranking.” He admits that reaching the top left him searching for motivation in the weeks that followed. He expects no such dip from the German. “I’m pretty sure Sascha will be motivated for the next tournaments,” he said.

If Medvedev wins instead, Zverev would face the opponent who has troubled him most: Medvedev leads their head-to-head 14-8.