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Whoa! The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season were released on Tuesday night and it delivered absolute shockwaves throughout the sport. Yes, there were some expected results, with the Miami Hurricanes being ranked No. 1 and Georgia right behind them at No. 2. But Notre Dame coming in at No. 11, Ohio State right behind them at No. 12 and even Alabama vaulting all the way up to No. 5? I don't think anyone saw that coming.
With the CFP rankings differing so substantially from the AP Top 25, we have to recalibrate what these teams in the playoff field and on the bubble now have before them and what this all means. First, let's look at the full Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings; then we'll dive into the ramifications for Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State and many other would-be CFP contenders.
Notre Dame, far and away, are the biggest losers of the first CFP rankings release. The Fighting Irish were heading into their huge Week 10 matchup with Miami in South Bend ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25. But the selection committee sees the Irish differently, ranking them at No. 11. And that has substantial meaning for both the game against the Hurricanes and moving forward.
Essentially what the CFP selection committee is telling us is that, if Notre Dame loses to Miami, they're not going to be participating in the College Football Playoff. It's really that simple. We knew that Notre Dame's schedule this season was, on the whole, one of the softest among potential contenders with only matchups against BYU and Miami looming large. Well, they lost at BYU and now have the Miami game left to prove themselves.
If they don't beat Miami, Notre Dame's best win will end up being either SMU (assuming they win that matchup in Week 12) or a neutral-site victory over Wisconsin. That's not a viable CFP resumé, especially without the benefit of playing in a conference championship game. But while the Irish's AP ranking may have given them hope of going 10-2 with losses to BYU and Miami and still getting in, it doesn't seem like the College Football Playoff selection committee feels the same.
The Alabama Crimson Tide saw one of the biggest boosts in the CFP rankings from the AP Top 25, the inverse of Notre Dame. The committee is clearly valuing the wins over South Carolina and Kentucky — ranked No. 21 and No. 6, respectively — quite highly, while honoring that head-to-head win over a Wildcats team with a better record and not calibrating (or so it seems) for the fact that the Crimson Tide lost to Georgia and followed that up by getting blown out by Tennessee.
Regardless of how the committee arrived at this ranking, though, the fact of the matter is that Alabama is now sitting pretty. While some of their SEC cohorts face a gauntlet down the stretch, the Crimson Tide have a soft landing through the remainder of the season. Their final three games are at Vanderbilt, vs. Chattanooga and home for the Iron Bowl. However, it's the LSU game this week that once looked like a potential CFP elimination game for the Tide.
It still might be if Bama loses, depending on how Kentucky and South Carolina finish their respective seasons and if those wins hold up for the Crimson Tide. However, the fact that they're being ranked as the No. 5 team in the CFP right now means that they have far more margin for error than expected and that they are firmly in line to be a three-loss team that makes the playoff.
Ohio State has precisely no margin for error after being ranked as the first team out of the 12-team field (the No. 12-ranked team pushed out by the Group of Six champion, Boise State in these rankings). Selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek explained that the loss to USC was eye-opening because the Buckeyes simply didn't look like the same team with Luke Fahey in at quarterback for injured Julian Sayin.
Now, the Buckeyes still only have one loss in the Big Ten, which could give them the opportunity to make it to Indianapolis and play for a conference championship. At the same time, though, another loss over their final four games against Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and rival Michigan puts that in jeopardy. And more importantly, if they look like they did with Fahey against the Trojans in that loss or even in wins, that's not going to win them many points in the eyes of the committee.
We talked after the USC loss how the Buckeyes' hopes for the College Football Playoff were on thin ice. The committee bore that out with these initial rankings. Not only are they no longer in the field right now, but a message was sent to say that, pretty plainly, Ohio State will not be making it into the bracket as a three-loss team barring winning the Big Ten title.
In a very similar vein to Alabama, Texas has to be feeling quite good. The strength of their signature wins over Ole Miss, Ohio State and Tennessee are clearly buoying the Longhorns in the committee's eyes right now, despite their two losses not being of the highest quality — especially the one to Oklahoma. However, with a gauntlet still ahead for the Longhorns, being ranked No. 7 seemingly gives them the opportunity to slip up against a ranked opponent, handle business against another and still boast a resumé good enough to get them into the field.
UCLA being ranked No. 8 was a bit perplexing to me. Yes, they are akin to the 2024 iteration of Indiana in terms of their strength of schedule, which probably has a lot to do with their ranking. At the same time, though, they do have a win over Oregon, a ranked team, and are one of three undefeated teams remaining. Perhaps more importantly, this is also a team that has passed the eye test, completely dominating opponents. However, what their ranking says is that wasn't enough. If they want to make it into the playoff, they likely have to win out, with maybe a loss to USC being the only exception to that if the Bruins don't win the Big Ten.
Make no mistake, the LSU resumé to this point isn't anything to write home about. They've lost the two most difficult games on the schedule to this point, Ole Miss and Kentucky. However, they have a window of opportunity remaining as they face Alabama and Texas at home and Tennessee on the road before facing Arkansas. Being ranked 14th likely means that the Tigers, despite not taking a bad loss this year and looking dominant at times, might not get into the field if they were to go 2-1 over that stretch to finish the year at 9-3. They might have to win out, depending on what other chaos transpires in the SEC and in the Top 12 of the CFP rankings.
Wake Forest being ranked No. 16 is egregious. Yes, I know that they haven't played the most daunting schedule to this point, but the Demon Deacons' one loss on the year was a highly competitive effort against the No. 1-ranked team in the College Football Playoff rankings, Miami. That has to count for something and this team has also mowed over almost everyone else in their path. But regardless of my opinions on where they should've been ranked, the committee is clearly sending a signal that the ACC, barring Wake upending Miami in a rematch, is likely going to be a one-bid league, even if Wake wins out.
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