Keith Thurman is already spinning Vergil Ortiz Jr. as a more manageable problem than Sebastian Fundora, which tells you everything about how veteran fighters rationalize dangerous matchups.

Thurman is betting that a drop in incoming punches equates to breathing room. Trading Fundora’s exhausting, awkward flurries for Ortiz’s firepower is a terrible bargain.

Fundora drowned Thurman in non-stop punches, but Ortiz does not need triple-digit punch outputs to ruin someone’s night. He sits down on every single delivery, cuts off escape routes, and forces opponents into survival mode.

“Virgil might be holding back his volume, but his power is going to be more intense,” Thurman told MillCity Boxing. “So, once again, it’s dangerous.”

Thurman talking about Ortiz holding back volume sounds like wishful thinking from a fighter trying to talk himself into believing he will get space to operate. He even tries to compare the transition to his past fights against Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia. Porter brought a relentless dogfight, while Garcia offered pauses between exchanges that allowed Thurman to reset his feet.

“I think he’s going to be easier to match the volume, the two-punch combos, the three-punch combos,” Thurman said.

The fatal flaw in that logic is simple: Garcia let fighters off the hook. Ortiz hunts. Those quiet moments Thurman thinks he will exploit between short combinations will not be rest periods. They will be traps where Ortiz walks him into the ropes and forces him to backpedal under heavy artillery.

At 37, Thurman’s legs look gone compared to his prime. He used to circle the perimeter, plant his feet, fire a quick combination, and skip out of range before anyone could touch him. Against Fundora, he had no snap left to hold his ground, which is why he spent from rounds 3 to 6 of that fight purely in track-and-field mode.

If Thurman refuses to sit down on his shots, Ortiz Jr. will walk through him. A dangerous puncher only respects what is coming back at him. The moment Ortiz Jr. realizes Thurman is strictly on his bicycle and throwing nothing to deter him, he will pin his ears back, cut off the ring, and trap Thurman on the ropes. Without pop on his punches to gain Ortiz’s respect, running just delays the inevitable while draining Thurman’s dwindling gas tank.

The threat of a referee stoppage is very real here. Against Fundora, Thurman reached a point where he was offering zero offensive resistance, and ringside officials will step in every time if a guy looks like target practice and shows no intention of fighting back.