Florida enters Saturday’s rivalry matchup with Georgia as a double-digit underdog, but ESPN’s Bill Connelly sees a realistic path for the Gators to make things uncomfortable.

Connelly included No. 3 Georgia among the teams on upset alert in his Week 9 preview, pointing to Florida’s ability to create turnovers and Jadan Baugh’s physical running style as two factors that could give the Gators a chance.

Georgia enters the matchup as a 12.5-point favorite, while Connelly’s SP+ projects the Bulldogs to win by 16.5 points and ESPN’s FPI has Georgia by 13. Even so, Connelly identified a specific formula Florida could follow to keep the game close.

“The Dawgs’ tackling has been pretty mediocre by their standards,” Connelly wrote, adding that Florida’s upset script “starts with Jadan Baugh racking up yards after contact.”

That could play directly into one of Florida’s biggest strengths. Baugh has been the centerpiece of the Gators’ rushing attack, and his ability to create extra yardage after contact could become even more important against a Georgia defense that Connelly believes has been less reliable as a tackling unit than usual.

Turnovers could be just as important. Georgia has fumbled six times over its past two games, and Connelly wrote that Florida’s defense probably needs to create takeaways to compensate for a unit that ranks 97th nationally in points allowed per drive.

The Bulldogs have otherwise been superior in most statistical categories and have recently rediscovered their explosiveness. Georgia has produced gains of at least 20 yards on 10.5% of its offensive snaps, which ranks second nationally, according to Connelly.

Florida also enters Saturday with a quarterback question. Tramell Jones Jr. led the Gators to a 27-24 win at Texas while Aaron Philo was unavailable, but the latter is reportedly set to start on Saturday.

Connelly believes Florida needs enough offense to push the game into a range where a few turnovers or explosive plays could swing the result.

“If they can get their point total into the mid-20s,” Connelly wrote, “they’ll give themselves an upset chance.”

Florida has already shown an ability to produce unexpected results this season with wins over Ole Miss and Texas. Knocking off Georgia would easily become the biggest of the bunch.