Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Texas surges to No. 5 as Week 10 hype falls flat

Most of last weekend's heavyweight showdowns were duds, paving the way for the Longhorns' climb

College football is an unpredictable sport. Think of all the hype about Week 10 that began in the offseason. It was set up to be one of the biggest weekends of not just the 2026 season, but perhaps of the last few years. And even though the tilt between Oregon and Ohio State didn't have quite the stakes as we imagined before the year began, it was replaced by a surprise top-15 battle between Kentucky and Tennessee.

Then Saturday finally showed up, and it was mostly a dud. The Holy War between BYU and Utah was a lot of fun, and Miami battled back and made things interesting against Notre Dame in the end, but by and large, there wasn't much excitement.

There were seven games between ranked teams on Saturday, and the average margin of victory was 17.6 points. There were as many one-score games (two) as there were 4+ score games.

Meanwhile, there have been weekends this season when there aren't "marquee" matchups, but everything goes off the rails. It's a reminder that none of us know anything about this sport, no matter how much of it we watch. At the end of the day, it's going to do what it wants, and all you can do is wait to see what happens.

And, of course, adjust your power ratings accordingly.

1
The Bulldogs stepped onto the field, punched Ole Miss in the face, and just continued punching Ole Miss in the face for 3.5 hours. It was a remarkable performance, and one that reminded me of the dominant Georgia squads of not-so-long ago. It also got me to wonder if Gunner Stockton isn't the best Heisman value bet on the board right now. CJ Carr is the favorite after beating Miami, but nobody seems all that enthused about it. What if Gunner and the Dawgs win out? Notre Dame won't be in any more spotlight games. Georgia will be in at least three. Last Week: 1 \| Title Odds: +245
2
I didn't really punish the Hurricanes at all following the loss to Notre Dame. They were missing their best player, Malachi Toney, and it was evident early on that they were struggling to adapt to life without their easy button on offense. Once they figured things out, they made a game of it and nearly tied it late. Should these two meet again, on a neutral field, I'd have Miami favored just slightly over the Irish. Last Week: 2 \| Title Odds: +800
3
If Notre Dame misses the playoff, something went horrifically wrong. Their final three games are Boston College, SMU and Syracuse. The SMU game is in South Bend, and using my ratings, they'd be favored by 17 or 17.5. The focus for this team going forward should be getting healthy and doing everything possible to avoid further injuries, particularly on defense. Last Week: 3 \| Title Odds: +400
4
My problems with Alabama's ranking by the CFP last week weren't how high they were ranked. I mean, I have them at No. 4 in my power ratings. I clearly believe Bama's pretty good. No, the problem was the gap between them and Tennessee, based on their head-to-head and the committee's process for reaching its final ranking. I believe it's a flawed process. I do not believe Alabama is a flawed team. When Keelon Russell plays well, it's an extremely dangerous one, too. Last Week: 4 \| Title Odds: +680
5
Rare is the game when Texas looks to be a dominant squad for 60 minutes, but while there are so many things I want to nitpick about this team, the fact of the matter is they've won the big games. They are battle-tested, and even if I don't believe this is the best team in the country, it's a team that has proven it knows how to win when it isn't playing all that well. As I look around at the current landscape of this sport, that seems like a valuable trait to have. Last Week: 9 \| Title Odds: +1050
6
On a down-to-down basis, LSU was better than Alabama in some respects. The problem is LSU can't avoid making mistakes at crucial moments, and they struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. It wasn't just an issue against Bama. The 4.59 points per red-zone possession rank 48th nationally and 11th among the teams in this top 12, ahead of only Indiana (4.50). It matters. A lot. Last Week: 6 \| Title Odds: +2200
7
The Hoosiers had last week off, and while they climb a spot here, it's more about Ohio State plummeting down my ranking than anything Indiana did. In fact, I have legitimate concerns about this Indiana team, as I'm sure most everyone does. The Hoosiers haven't scored more than 23 points in a game since putting up 47 on Rutgers in Week 5. Hopefully the bye came at the right time, and they look sharper this week against USC. If not, I'll have some thinking to do about how I rate them. Last Week: 8 \| Title Odds: +1050
8
It wasn't always pretty, but Utah got the job done against BYU on Saturday to put itself in a tremendous position in the Big 12 race, as well as the playoff hunt. This is not a team I consider capable of bringing home the national title. I don't believe it's good enough overall to win three games against elite competition. But it can win a game, and maybe two if it gets the right matchups. Last Week: 10 \| Title Odds: +2600
9
My decision to stick with Oregon in the top 12 all season, despite the struggles, looks to have been the correct one. While the Ducks are not the team we expected before the season, they're also a much different team than the one we saw for the first half of the season. Dylan Raiola is settling in, and the offense is doing a much better job of figuring out ways to get its best players the ball. Defensively, they've been terrific, and Dan Lanning, as evidenced by the fake punt against Ohio State, is showing no sign of coaching scared despite what little margin for error this team has. I'm telling you, the idea of Oregon in the playoff seems crazy given how the season has gone, but it's more likely than you think. Last Week: 11 \| Title Odds: +5800
10
I am not nearly as confident in Ohio State's ability to stay in the top 12 as I was with Oregon. They remain here for at least one more week, though, but I have docked their overall rating yet again. The Buckeyes lack the typical game-changing talent on offense that we've seen in years past, aside from Jeremiah Smith. Now defenses are focusing solely on him and forcing Luke Fahey to figure out how to beat them in other ways, and Fahey just can't figure it out. Meanwhile, the defense is wearing down because it's on the field a lot more, and it knows it has to be damn near perfect to keep this team in the game. It's just a mess all around. Last Week: 5 \| Title Odds: +7000
11
The 34-6 final score was slightly misleading because, even though Kentucky never led or looked like a real threat to take the lead, it wasn't until late that the Vols' offense was able to take advantage of some short fields and pile on the points. My thoughts about this team haven't changed much at all. The defense will keep them in every damn game. Whether they win will depend on whether the offense can run the ball and put some points on the board. It'll be hard to win a national title that way, but I wouldn't be excited about facing this team in the first round. Either at home or in Knoxville. Last Week: 12 \| Title Odds: +3700
12
Yep! We talk a lot about teams that benefit from brand bias, and how some teams are treated differently, and Wake Forest is a textbook example this season. I'm convinced nobody on the selection committee has watched a down of the Demon Deacons this season, and their only relationship with them is in the little stat boxes on their computer screens. But even those boxes should be enough to let you know this isn't just a team benefiting from a schedule! It's played a more difficult schedule than UCLA, Utah and Texas Tech! And it's killing teams! It's a good football team, and it deserves far more respect from the committee than it's likely to receive. Last Week: NR \| Title Odds: +6500

1
The Bulldogs stepped onto the field, punched Ole Miss in the face, and just continued punching Ole Miss in the face for 3.5 hours. It was a remarkable performance, and one that reminded me of the dominant Georgia squads of not-so-long ago. It also got me to wonder if Gunner Stockton isn't the best Heisman value bet on the board right now. CJ Carr is the favorite after beating Miami, but nobody seems all that enthused about it. What if Gunner and the Dawgs win out? Notre Dame won't be in any more spotlight games. Georgia will be in at least three. Last Week: 1 \| Title Odds: +245
2
I didn't really punish the Hurricanes at all following the loss to Notre Dame. They were missing their best player, Malachi Toney, and it was evident early on that they were struggling to adapt to life without their easy button on offense. Once they figured things out, they made a game of it and nearly tied it late. Should these two meet again, on a neutral field, I'd have Miami favored just slightly over the Irish. Last Week: 2 \| Title Odds: +800
3
If Notre Dame misses the playoff, something went horrifically wrong. Their final three games are Boston College, SMU and Syracuse. The SMU game is in South Bend, and using my ratings, they'd be favored by 17 or 17.5. The focus for this team going forward should be getting healthy and doing everything possible to avoid further injuries, particularly on defense. Last Week: 3 \| Title Odds: +400
4
My problems with Alabama's ranking by the CFP last week weren't how high they were ranked. I mean, I have them at No. 4 in my power ratings. I clearly believe Bama's pretty good. No, the problem was the gap between them and Tennessee, based on their head-to-head and the committee's process for reaching its final ranking. I believe it's a flawed process. I do not believe Alabama is a flawed team. When Keelon Russell plays well, it's an extremely dangerous one, too. Last Week: 4 \| Title Odds: +680
5
Rare is the game when Texas looks to be a dominant squad for 60 minutes, but while there are so many things I want to nitpick about this team, the fact of the matter is they've won the big games. They are battle-tested, and even if I don't believe this is the best team in the country, it's a team that has proven it knows how to win when it isn't playing all that well. As I look around at the current landscape of this sport, that seems like a valuable trait to have. Last Week: 9 \| Title Odds: +1050
6
On a down-to-down basis, LSU was better than Alabama in some respects. The problem is LSU can't avoid making mistakes at crucial moments, and they struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. It wasn't just an issue against Bama. The 4.59 points per red-zone possession rank 48th nationally and 11th among the teams in this top 12, ahead of only Indiana (4.50). It matters. A lot. Last Week: 6 \| Title Odds: +2200
7
The Hoosiers had last week off, and while they climb a spot here, it's more about Ohio State plummeting down my ranking than anything Indiana did. In fact, I have legitimate concerns about this Indiana team, as I'm sure most everyone does. The Hoosiers haven't scored more than 23 points in a game since putting up 47 on Rutgers in Week 5. Hopefully the bye came at the right time, and they look sharper this week against USC. If not, I'll have some thinking to do about how I rate them. Last Week: 8 \| Title Odds: +1050
8
It wasn't always pretty, but Utah got the job done against BYU on Saturday to put itself in a tremendous position in the Big 12 race, as well as the playoff hunt. This is not a team I consider capable of bringing home the national title. I don't believe it's good enough overall to win three games against elite competition. But it can win a game, and maybe two if it gets the right matchups. Last Week: 10 \| Title Odds: +2600
9
My decision to stick with Oregon in the top 12 all season, despite the struggles, looks to have been the correct one. While the Ducks are not the team we expected before the season, they're also a much different team than the one we saw for the first half of the season. Dylan Raiola is settling in, and the offense is doing a much better job of figuring out ways to get its best players the ball. Defensively, they've been terrific, and Dan Lanning, as evidenced by the fake punt against Ohio State, is showing no sign of coaching scared despite what little margin for error this team has. I'm telling you, the idea of Oregon in the playoff seems crazy given how the season has gone, but it's more likely than you think. Last Week: 11 \| Title Odds: +5800
10
I am not nearly as confident in Ohio State's ability to stay in the top 12 as I was with Oregon. They remain here for at least one more week, though, but I have docked their overall rating yet again. The Buckeyes lack the typical game-changing talent on offense that we've seen in years past, aside from Jeremiah Smith. Now defenses are focusing solely on him and forcing Luke Fahey to figure out how to beat them in other ways, and Fahey just can't figure it out. Meanwhile, the defense is wearing down because it's on the field a lot more, and it knows it has to be damn near perfect to keep this team in the game. It's just a mess all around. Last Week: 5 \| Title Odds: +7000
11
The 34-6 final score was slightly misleading because, even though Kentucky never led or looked like a real threat to take the lead, it wasn't until late that the Vols' offense was able to take advantage of some short fields and pile on the points. My thoughts about this team haven't changed much at all. The defense will keep them in every damn game. Whether they win will depend on whether the offense can run the ball and put some points on the board. It'll be hard to win a national title that way, but I wouldn't be excited about facing this team in the first round. Either at home or in Knoxville. Last Week: 12 \| Title Odds: +3700
12
Yep! We talk a lot about teams that benefit from brand bias, and how some teams are treated differently, and Wake Forest is a textbook example this season. I'm convinced nobody on the selection committee has watched a down of the Demon Deacons this season, and their only relationship with them is in the little stat boxes on their computer screens. But even those boxes should be enough to let you know this isn't just a team benefiting from a schedule! It's played a more difficult schedule than UCLA, Utah and Texas Tech! And it's killing teams! It's a good football team, and it deserves far more respect from the committee than it's likely to receive. Last Week: NR \| Title Odds: +6500

Most of last weekend's heavyweight showdowns were duds, paving the way for the Longhorns' climb

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