The Orioles could use either of the Cubs free-agent outfielders – Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ – in their everyday lineup next season. I’d take both. Or either. Let’s start there.

And with their all powerful and knowing new “GM” Jared Banner being a real hotshot with Chicago's organization, and with him talking a big game about all the winning the Orioles are going to be doing (when not utterly kowtowing to his new bosses, especially THE BIG BOSS Catie Grigg), it’s fair to consider perhaps he could help get one of them to Baltimore, no? And this is a fascinating study with both candidates basically the exact same age and both playing corner outfield in the same ballparks for the same team.

Of course, they’re not going to get identical contracts, and Banner went on a media crusade this week to soft landing spots to peddle the evils of free agency in general. And we know his private equity billionaires aren’t really interested in bringing a winner here by their words and actions. But it’s very much worth assessing – in a very limited free-agent market- which of these two really makes the most sense, and which they would reasonably procure after proven baseball failure Mike Elias absolutely whiffed trading to Taylor Ward to try to fill left field last year (Suzuki would be in RF and Happ would be LF).

What Do the Numbers Say?

We love the comparison tool over at Stathead (baseballreference.com), and here is what Happ and Suzuki have done the last five seasons with the Cubs as both head to their age 32 seasons https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/WmeGT:

Player   G   PA      HR    RBI    SB   SO      BA  OBP  SLG  OPS

Happ   775   3288   110   389   46   810    .245 .343 .429 .772

Suzuki 675 2899 113  382   39   719    .269 .351 .472 .823

Suzuki is coming off his best defensive season and Happ has been a regular Gold Glove guy. Suzuki is faster and might age a little better but he is also plying the less demanding position. I think Happ could handle left field in Camden Yards – eve after Mike and Sig bragged about butchering it twice – for at least a year or two … but not sure about the duration of the contract.

Of course, we would gravitate to the guy putting the ball in play more with Suzuki, with the higher average and the better on base, but he is also a right-handed power bat, and that’s been a problem for many a former slugger at OPCY (including Taylor Ward).

I love the fact that Happ is a switch hitter, they badly need that with what could be a glut of right-handed power bats depending on whether Elias can ever do the right thing and trade some of those guys (we have a plan for that).

Show Me The Money

Suzuki is getting way more hype this offseason and maybe the media is just off, but he seems like the hotter guy by far. He is showing up in top five free agents from guys we respect like Kiley McDaniel and a bunch we don’t respect who get used mercilessly by teams and agents. There seems to be a consensus regardless.

We continue to see projections for Suzuki around 4-5 years are roughly $23M-$25M a season.

And Happ is coming in around 3-4 years, at around $15M-$17M.

(And full disclosure, if they are only going to do one thing in the outfield and it’s not trading for Byron Buxton, then I’d rather try Daulton Varsho in centerfield for one year around $16M than either of these two. But that’s a different conversation).

Can they get Happ for 3/$50M? Given that right now Pete Alonso is the only real contract for an everyday hitter in the entire franchise (Samuel Basallo’s contract extension is peanuts and Gunnar Henderson is an arbitration guy) this is absolutely something even this ridiculous ownership group should be able to stomach.

Conclusion

Suzuki will hit more homers, but the ballpark is a real factor in Baltimore. They should get on base about the same, I love Happ’s walk rate; but he will also strikeout more. But the fact he bats from both sides, can handle left, and will come at half the price, resonates.

Don’t get it twisted – Suzuki is the better ball player, with higher upside. But the Orioles will have to outbid more suitors and that deal might be wrapped up quickly. That’s not how Elias operates and even the Pete Alonso deal came after he was on the market for a while (Dec. 11). I honestly believe CF is such a need the Varsho thing appeals to me, but of these two options give me Happ at this price point.

These owners are not going to spend to get out of bad contract or buy their way out of injuries (hence why Tyler O’Neill is still here) and they need a more proven glove after years of AAA fielding in the outfield and while Suzuki really improved last year it was shaky before that. So give me Happ of these two.

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