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The Los Angeles Dodgers have long been seen as the face of the impending lockout in Major League Baseball due to increased spending in recent seasons.
Many around the baseball world pointed to LA and their back-to-back championships as "ruining baseball" and two reasons too many as to why MLB should finally join the other major sports leagues of North America and implement a salary cap.
After the Dodgers were swept in the National League Championship Series by the Milwaukee Brewers — who have the eighth-lowest payroll in baseball — the same people calling for the Dodgers ruining the sport watched five World Series games where Milwaukee took down the Tampa Bay Rays, the owners of the third-lowest payroll in MLB.
There was no shortage of momentum regarding a lockout throughout the 2026 campaign, and MLB and the MLB Players' Association are now working against the clock of the current collective bargaining agreement's expiration date of Nov. 30, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
The last proposal from the owners before the conclusion of the 2026 season came at the end of July, featuring a 50-50 split on baseball revenue between owners and players, along with a hard salary cap of $245.3 million and floor of $171.2 million.
Another proposal from the owners arrived in the aftermath of the season that would implement the new salary cap and floor in 2028 (instead of 2027), and increase the would-be cap by $13 million as well as the floor by $9 million.
MLB spokesman Glen Caplin provided the latest on what the new proposal implicates.
“We recognize that clubs will need a full offseason to prepare to operate within the cap and floor system,” Caplin said. “Therefore, with this offseason already underway, we proposed today to begin the cap and floor system in 2028. This proposal would allow a smoother transition into the cap and floor system without delaying key player benefits, including earlier free agency, a $1 million minimum salary, a 30% increase to the pre-arbitration bonus pool, and transactional reform that will reduce roster churn."
The MLBPA quickly rejected this offer, citing that owners “continue to propose blowing up the current system and replacing it with one designed to line their pockets and increase their franchise values.”
The Players also took issue with other factors, such as massive reduction in player compensation, elimination of fundamental player rights, gutting of domestic and international amateur entry systems and the replacement of market-based fundamentals that harms the middle class and pits players against other players.
MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams suggested that the vague language for what "baseball revenue" entails may have been a glaring reason to reject the proposal since total revenue would directly impact what the players and league will end up splitting. That being said, it isn't just player benefits and pre-arbitration bonus pools that don't come with a concrete number, but the salary cap and floor figures presented are merely projections of where MLB should be when the new CBA is implemented.
With the proposed salary cap and floor, 12 clubs would have to increase spending compared to their 2026 payroll while the Los Angeles Dodgers would be one of eight that need to decrease payroll.
The Dodgers will almost certainly have to change their approach moving forward in some way. LA spent over $339 million in total payroll last season, and would have to cut that significantly to fit under the proposed ceiling of $258.2 million in the future.
Whether or not there's a salary cap, there will likely be some sort of payroll restrictions.
Money isn't the only issue that comes with a potential lockout, though.
From a player development standpoint, one of the brightest young stars on the roster may suffer the most from a potential lockout.
Josue De Paula quickly emerged as a threat on offense, hitting .303 in 124 Double-A games which earned him a promotion straight to the majors in September. In 31 major league at-bats, he hit .313 with an OPS of 1.081.
Despite the Dodgers' stagnant offense in the postseason, he was sparingly used in October due to his inability to play defense and the Dodgers not wanting his defensive debut to be in the most crucial moments of the season.
In the event of a lockout, De Paula (and the other Dodgers players on the 40-man roster) would be barred from communicating with team coaches and officials until it's over.
The Athletic's Katie Woo discussed via Reddit how that could impact his potential to be a starting outfielder next season.
"In a normal offseason, I'd be more encouraged that he could take significant steps forward," Woo wrote. "But once the CBA expires, the Dodgers are prohibited from working with him, and he is prohibited from working out at any team facility. That's going to present a major roadblock, no matter how committed De Paula is to improve."
If a new deal is not reached by Dec. 1, De Paula will be left to his own devices to get into defensive shape.
While the Dodgers trust his work ethic, they won't be able to be with him in his improvement. That could make it difficult to trust he'll be in a good spot to be the everyday left fielder come next season.
The last MLB lockout to feature the cancellation of games was the 1994 players' strike that led into the 1995 campaign. With around 50 regular season games to go, players started the 232-day work stoppage that halted the regular season on Aug. 12 and officially cancelled the World Series for the first time since 1904.
Ironically, the owners were pushing for a salary cap, but the National Labor Relations Board ruled that they were bargaining in bad faith, leading US District Judge Sonia Sotomayor to issue a preliminary injunction to restore the season in March of 1995. After missing the most important part of the 1994 campaign, the 1995 season featured 144 regular season games.
While there have been lockouts since then, there has not been the cancellation of any games aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
The two sides will likely need to reach an agreement by March to avoid the cancellation of games this year.
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