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Can UCF football spring upset against No. 2 BYU? Score predictions, scouting report
Nov 29, 2025; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) throws over the reach of UCF Knights defensive end Malachi Lawrence (51) during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

ORLANDO — After a week of rest, UCF's football team prepares for its biggest test in 2026.

Fresh off their bye week, the Knights (3-3, 1-2) host BYU (6-0, 3-0), ranked No. 2 in The Associated Press' Top 25 and No. 3 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 24. The Cougars, who snapped Notre Dame's 16-game winning streak last weekend in a 28-24 thriller, are the highest-ranked opponent to visit the Acrisure Bounce House.

"The motivation and drive is that we're right there," UCF offensive tackle Preston Cushman said. "We're going in and we're going against top-25 teams, and we're rolling them up for the first three quarters. And then it just goes downhill after that. … We're going to play the No. 2 team in the nation this week, another Big 12 opponent, so we're excited for the opportunity. We're right there on so many levels (to) just playing a complete game like we talk about all the time."

The Knights have a 6-6 home record against nationally ranked opponents since opening their on-campus stadium in 2007, but an 0-3 mark against consensus top-10 teams. Scott Frost oversaw two of those victories in back-to-back weeks near the conclusion of the 2017 campaign — against longtime American Conference rivals South Florida and Memphis.

"It's homecoming. It's the Big 12. Everybody's pretty close," Frost said. "I think BYU's the best of the bunch. There are some arguments to be made for other teams, too, but I think they've done a really good job. They're big and long and physical. They've got a really good quarterback. There are no holes. There are solid players everywhere, and they know what they're doing; they're well-coached.

"It's an awesome opportunity for us on homecoming to go shoot our shot, and I think our kids will be excited," Frost said.

Can the Knights spring a landmark upset, or will the Cougars continue rolling toward the College Football Playoff? The News-Journal's trio of Chris Boyle, Chris Vinel and Ken Willis dive deep into the matchup and provide their predictions.

UCF vs. BYU tale of the tape

UCF traded blows with both Houston and Oklahoma State before the bye, leading the former 17-0 in the third quarter and trailing the latter 27-21 in the early stages of the fourth. However, the Knights' road losing streak reached a dozen games dating back to 2024.

The Knights sit 99th in the nation, and bottom of the Big 12, in total offense at 354.8 yards per game. BYU is the fourth top-15 run defense they will face across the opening two months — and Baylor, next week's opponent, is ninth, for good measure.

Duke Watson leads the team with 483 yards on the ground and three touchdowns. Josh Derry caught a touchdown in each of UCF's last two games, recording 18 receptions for 185 yards.

Oct 3, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; UCF Knights running back Duke Watson (26) runs with the ball during the first quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Defensively, the Knights have generated 11 takeaways, resulting in a +4 turnover margin on the year. Redshirt senior safety Demari Henderson is among the conference's leaders in passes defended (six) and interceptions (two). Isaiah Nixon tops the team in sacks (2.5), and Jeffson Lafontant leads in tackles for loss (5.5).

Bear Bachmeier will pose a major threat to the Knights' defense as a passer and runner. He averaged 209.5 yards per game through the air and 47.3 on the ground, in addition to contributing 15 total touchdowns.

True freshman Legend Glasker ranks ninth among Big 12 receivers in yards (444) and fourth in yards per reception (18.5). BYU's offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the conference (three).

Cade Uluave pressured Notre Dame's CJ Carr relentlessly on last weekend's final drive; he leads the Cougars with 35 tackles and snagged one of the unit's six picks. Tausili Akana has 6.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks, and safety Faletau Satuala fills the stat sheet with 28 tackles, two TFLs, two pass breakups, one pick and one QB hurry.

UCF vs. BYU scouting report: What we're watching

Oct 17, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA;  Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) celebrates with offensive line Bruce Mitchell (63) after scoring a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first halfat LaVell Edwards Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

All of the elements of a classic college football letdown are in place — an emotional high after a signature win, a cross-country flight across multiple time zones, a hostile crowd celebrating homecoming, an opponent rested and prepared from a bye week, etc.

The Cougars deserve the benefit of the doubt, considering their remarkable consistency over the last two-and-a-half seasons. But it's worth mentioning they trailed UCF 14-0 after the first quarter in Provo, Utah, last November — not that Sitake needs any reminders.

"Their record could definitely be different right now," Sitake said. "They are maybe a couple plays from being undefeated, even. I've been really impressed with how their team's playing. … It's going to be a tough game. We're expecting their best. We've got to make sure that our best shows up, and we (stay) humble and stay hungry."

Earlier this month, the Knights held Houston quarterback Conner Weigman in check through the air, limiting him to a 54% completion percentage and no touchdowns. He did rush for three scores, though. And Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker carved up the UCF defense for 304 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Overall, the Knights rank 105th in the country in passing yards allowed per game (236.8).

With backup QB Keyone Jenkins likely getting another start and going against the nation's 13th-ranked scoring defense, UCF can't afford for Bachmeier and Co. to post a crooked number.

It might not be smart to bet against guys named Bear Bachmeier and Legend Glasker, but you have to respect the power of letdowns.

Also, while UCF's road losing streak is hard to ignore, it's not like the Knights didn't put a scare into quality opponents in their two most recent losses away from home. They played well right up until they didn't, but home crowds magically bring better energy and staying power.

UCF vs. BYU injury updates

Oct 10, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA;  UCF Knights quarterback Keyone Jenkins (12) behind the line during the first half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Tuesday that UCF starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III will not start Saturday, still recovering from the hamstring injury he suffered Sept. 12 at Pittsburgh. He was officially listed as questionable on the Big 12's first availability reported released Wednesday.

"I think he's making really good progress," Frost said. "He looks good. He's doing a lot of things. I want to make sure he's ready to go if we put him out there. That position, you might not have to run for 10 plays, and then you've got to run away from some really big guys trying to get you."

Keyone Jenkins has started the last four games, leading the Knights to a 2-2 record. He has completed 70.3% of his passes for 803 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.

UCF has already ruled out running back Taevion Swint, wide receiver Caleb Rollerson, linebacker Lewis Carter and offensive linemen Owen Spell and Tyler Gibson. Slot receiver Duane Thomas Jr., who has missed each of the first six games, is questionable along with center Jacob Maiava.

BYU has just one absence, but it's a significant one — reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, who is expected to miss several more weeks with an ankle injury. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound senior rushed 22 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns in last year's win over the Knights.

UCF vs. BYU score predictions, picks

UCF football schedule 2026

  • Oct. 17: Open

  • Oct. 24: UCF vs. BYU* | 3:30 p.m. | Fox

  • Oct. 30: UCF vs. Baylor* | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

  • Nov. 7: UCF at Kansas* | TBD

  • Nov. 14: UCF vs. Arizona State* | TBD

  • Nov. 20: UCF vs. Iowa State* | 6 p.m. | FS1

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