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Technically, no team is a lock to make the College Football Playoff just yet. But if any team has a right to feel good about where they stand ahead of the selection committee's first ranking reveal this coming Tuesday evening, it's the Miami Hurricanes, who remain unbeaten and No. 1 in the country after surviving a scare at UNC on Saturday night. Even with a trip to Notre Dame looming, the Canes likely have bought themselves enough margin for error to pencil them into the final 12-team field.
But who else should feel comfortable, and who needs to worry after even more strange results in Week 9? To answer that question, we've broken down the remaining viable CFP contenders into confidence tiers.
Miami has had some close games this year, not the least of which was Saturday as the Hurricanes escaped Chapel Hill with a 38-35 win against the Tar Heels.
With Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney Heisman Trophy favorites and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. coming back from being banged up to be a major part of the win, the Hurricanes have the offense needed to compete. While their defense is less competent, they've been able to outscore teams so far and should continue to do so. Even if Miami losses at Notre Dame next weekend, it's hard to see a second loss on the schedule, and a second loss in the ACC title game wouldn't doom them. This is why they are in the top tier and the team I am most confident has already punched their ticket to the CFP.
People took notice of UCLA after their win at Oregon, and their last remaining challenge will be the rivalry game to finish the season against USC. With the easy schedule upcoming featuring Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan, the Bruins to be locked into the Playoff, as even losing to the Trojans will mean just one loss. And the committee will not leave out a one-loss Big Ten team.
LSU will be a challenge for Alabama; the Tigers and Crimson Tide always play thrillers, and this will be no different. But if Kalen DeBoer and Co. survive their trip to Baton Rouge, their remaining schedule is Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn — hardly a murderer’s row. And a two-loss Alabama team is not going to be left out; even if they make the SEC Championship Game and lose, we saw last season that the committee won't hold it against them.
Notre Dame had two big games this season: BYU and Miami. They lost the first two weeks ago, and if they lose the second at home this coming Saturday, they have no footing to stand on if they miss the CFP again. That said, if the Irish knock off Miami in South Bend, they'll be Playoff locks. And even still, a two-loss Notre Dame might well sneak in as an at-large given their standing and the chaos around them.
One ugly loss is not going to ruin Texas Tech's season. Saturday nearly did, though, as the Red Raiders trailed for much of the game against Arizona. Had they lost there, the chances of making the conference title game would have been minimal, and they would almost certainly have been out of the Playoff picture. But the comeback win over the Wildcats has Tech sitting pretty; a trip to Oklahoma State still looms, but their next real challenge should not be until they face their conference title game opponent, likely either BYU or Utah. Either would be a solid resume win, while a loss probably wouldn't drop them out of the bracket entirely.
The only remaining undefeated team in the Big 12, if the Utes can beat BYU in the Holy War this Saturday, they have all but locked up a Playoff berth. But if the Cougars come to Salt Lake City and hand Morgan Scalley his first loss as Utah coach, things will get interesting. Utah had begun to wobble a bit, but they made sure this week that they were not the second team in a row to travel to Cincinnati and lose. The Utes scored 42 points in the first half and cruised the rest of the way; this was the game the Utes needed coming into the BYU showdown, and if they win, they could move up to the top tier next week.
The Broncos are the only Group of Six school on this list, and it is for good reason. Boise State has already beaten Memphis, their only loss has come to a solid Oregon team and their biggest challenger in the Pac-12, Oregon State, just lost their second game of the season on Saturday to Fresno State. James Madison also now has two losses and Boise, unless they lose an upcoming game in surprising fashion, looks to be all but locked in as the highest-ranked G6. The strange way this season has gone is the only reason they are not in tier one already.
Like Boise State, the only reason Georgia is not in the top tier is the strange way this season has been playing out. Of all the teams not in tier one, the Bulldogs are the closest to being there, and they might be the best team in the country. Other than their loss to Auburn, they have been dismantling opponents routinely — and if they do the same to Ole Miss on Saturday, they will be a lock to make it to the Playoff. We just can't put them in pen yet, as we saw what happened the last time the Dawgs tried to slow down Trinidad Chambliss.
BYU has one of the best wins in the country against Notre Dame, which will give them room for error in the eyes of the committee. But The Holy War is here, and their opponent, Utah, has yet to take a loss. Neither BYU nor Utah will play Texas Tech in the regular season, so if all three finish with one loss, it will come down to tiebreakers — which, by Big 12 standards, means it might be Iowa State and West Virginia in the championship game somehow.
If BYU misses out on the title game after losing to Utah this week, they will be out. If they can win and overcome a bad loss to UCF, their chances of getting in are pretty good. They are in this tier only because Texas Tech and Utah have easier paths to making it.
Indiana might need to be in tier two, but after seeing the way they have played in their biggest games this season, it's clear that they are not nearly as good as 2025 — and their close calls may finally bite them down the stretch. Tight wins against Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota are combined with a loss to Ohio State to show the vulnerability of the Hoosiers. If they play the way they did this past Saturday against USC next weekend, they have a chance for a second loss. Defending champs or not, if you flop in your two biggest games of the season, both at home, you don’t deserve to get in.
Who would have thought that Kentucky would be anywhere on this list in their first season under Will Stein? Well, except for Stein himself, who has made this team not only exciting but also dang good. If the Wildcats can pull off a win against Tennessee this week and take care of Florida as well, they have a strong resume for an at-large bid. It would leave their only loss coming against Alabama, which is also in contention for the Playoff. Picking up another loss would probably be fatal, but don't count the Cats out.
LSU has lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky already; neither are bad losses, but it is more than Lane Kiffin had envisioned, especially going into a tough game against Alabama on Saturday. If the Tigers can defeat the Tide, they will immediately move into the second tier of this list. But if they lose, their hopes of a Playoff run in year one under Kiffin are all but over — especially with another challenging game coming next week against Texas. This is a hot team, but there's no margin for error left.
Maybe Ohio State deserves to be in a higher tier. If they had beaten USC, they would be. Unfortunately, they looked bad in their first game without Julian Sayin, and it was not just because of him. The whole team looked like they were struggling on offense and defense, in a way they haven't really in the Ryan Day era.
This does not bode well for the Buckeyes fans, who also had problems with the coaching decisions of Ryan Day in this game — including taking a full five minutes off the clock with his team down by 15 points in the fourth quarter. The injury to Sayin may have been the catalyst, but Ohio State is in trouble, and if they don’t win against Oregon on Saturday, the preseason favorites to win the national championship will be watching the CFP from home.
Ole Miss has struggled at times. They had a wonderful win against LSU, only to follow it with a dismantling at the hands of Florida. Then they lost another bad game against Texas before going out this week and taking care of Auburn. The last time Georgia came to Oxford in 2024, Ole Miss won in an icy mix. This year, Georgia looks much better, and if the Rebels don't pull off another upset, they will be out of the Playoff chase with three double-digit losses to their three best opponents.
Tennessee have their win over Alabama, but they also have losses to Texas and South Carolina on the resume. If they lose this week against Kentucky, their chances are shot. If the Volunteers can pull off a victory over the upstart Wildcats, there is still a chance they can make it as an at-large team, setting up a potential play-in game against LSU down the line.
Texas is doing their best impression of Jekyll and Hyde; they can defeat Ohio State one week, and then lose to Florida the next. The Longhorns will go as Arch Manning goes, and it is his inconsistency which gives me the most pause with this team. Star wideout Cam Coleman has yet to prove he was worth the $2 million NIL deal he got in the offseason, either, and transfer running back Hollywood Smothers has dealt with injuries all season. If Texas can beat Missouri this week and then defeat LSU the next, there is a good chance they will make the Playoff. But those are two big ifs, so let’s see them get through them first.
Iowa has only lost to Ohio State and Minnesota. The Buckeyes, despite their loss to USC, will remain a top-10 team, and Minnesota just took Indiana to overtime after trading 60-yard field goals in the final minute. The Hawkeyes defense under Phil Parker is always going to be a challenge for opponents, and if the offense can find anything, there is a chance for Iowa to win out and get an at-large berth with two losses. Next week's trip to Northwestern won't be easy, though.
Missouri has a loss to Mississippi State already, which looked good at the time but does not age well now. Their win against Florida is aging in the same manner after Saturday. But a game this week against Texas will be the key: If the Tigers can defeat the Longhorns, it will go a long way toward boosting their chances. You have to think Mizzou needs to win out to have a shot, and that's tough given the rugged remaining schedule.
I know, it is shocking to say. It is even more shocking to think that a win against Northwestern will be seen as a good one, but this is the 2026 season we are living in.
Oregon has lost Dante Moore for the rest of the season but Dylan Raiola was able to come in on Saturday and lead the Ducks to a solid win. This ascension will only continue if they can go to Columbus on Saturday and beat an Ohio State squad coming off a loss to USC and playing with a backup quarterback. Don't count them out yet, even with three losses; they still have a path to the Big Ten title game.
This would not have been a thought last week after USC scored just seven points in an ugly loss to a Wisconsin team that was just shut out by Iowa on Saturday. After finding a way to defeat Ohio State in a rainstorm, though, the Trojans are back in the mix. But they will only remain so if they can go east of the Mississippi River once again and finally show that they can compete, as they travel to take on Indiana for their next contest.
This is my team in the ACC, as mentioned before. I love the Deacs and Jake Dickert is a great coach.
The only loss Wake Forest has on the season so far is a 33-20 defeat to Miami. Given their soft schedule, though, the only way this team will make it in is if the selection committee gives the ACC two spots — which might be challenging. But if they do, this is the team that will get it, especially if their two losses both come in respectable fashion against the Canes.
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