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4 Predictions for Baylor's Must Win Matchup Against Kansas

Aranda is on thin ice, can he save his job again?

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baylor stands at 4-2 as they head to Lawrence, Kansas, to play the Jayhawks in David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. The Bears are winners of 14 straight against Kansas, but the Jayhawks smell blood in the water for their homecoming game.

Here are four predictions for the must win road game:

Klanderman neutralizes the Kansas attack

Sep 6, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baylor's defense has been nails in the first half of the season. On top of that, there are few people in the country that know the Jayhawk offense better than Baylor's defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman.

Klanderman is undefeated against his old in-state rival and has held them to less than 300 yards on several occasions. Kansas runs a motion-heavy offense and averages 32 points per game this season, but I doubt the Jayhawks can even get half of that mark in their homecoming showcase.

Baylor wins, but the offense still sputters

Time after time, head coach Dave Aranda is coaching for his job, and he gets through by the skin of his teeth. Baylor on the road versus Kansas has that storyline written all over it.

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears have outscored the Jayhawks 648-176 in the last 14 meetups, but this one doesn't have the feel of the typical offensive masterclass that previous Baylor teams put up against Kansas.

I think the Bears win this one by multiple scores, but yet again, it will be thanks to the defense, not an overpowering offense.

Baylor's run game gets on track

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Ryelan Morris | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears never got the running backs going against TCU. The first down, two-yard run plays put unnecessary pressure on Lagway, who also struggled to find his groove in the loss.

The Jayhawks have not had an impressive defensive front thus far, allowing over 170 rush yards per game. Baylor will likely try to get the ground game back on track against an opposing D-line that they can exploit.

Baylor forces multiple fumbles

Kansas has had a relatively strong offense to start the season, but ball security has been a reocurring issue. They average over 1.5 turnovers per game.

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes running back JaQuail Smith (23) carries the ball ahead of Baylor Bears linebacker Garrick Ponder (13) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Guys like Garrick Ponder have been punching the ball out all season long for the Bears and will look to dial up the aggressiveness against the Jayhawks, who already struggle.

The defense was great for Baylor last game, but another turnover or two would have given Lagway a shorter field to potentially put more points on the board. I expect Baylor to win the turnover margin by one or better on Saturday.

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