Last week was not only an incredible weekend of college football, but also an important reminder for all of us that we don't know anything. It doesn't matter how much time you spend following this sport. How deeply you study it, nor how much ball you know. At the end of the day, it's a game played by two teams of young men between the ages of 18 and 23 with an oblong ball that will bounce in random directions once it hits the ground.

Sometimes one of those young men will run into his teammate's backside and drop the oblong ball, which will bounce into the waiting arms of the other team, and the next thing you know they're kicking it through a pair of uprights to win the game.

It's great. I can't get enough of it. Would I have had enough of, though, is losing picks in this column. I may as well have been a top-10 team myself last week because I went 2-4, which is the third straight week I've gone 2-4. I was Brandon Marsh's left pinky toe away from being 3-3, which still wouldn't have been good, but would've felt so much better than 3-3.

But I cannot wallow in it. I must keep my head held high and soldier through while all of you yell at me. However, while I don't mind being yelled at, I must remind you that you could just do the opposite of what I tell you. If you'd been doing it all season, I'd be your hero right now.

Games of the Week

No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas: The vibes in Austin are low. It is never a good sign when your head coach has to repeatedly tell everybody that, no, he is not benching the starting quarterback, while also telling you that the starting quarterback needs to play better. What this tells you is that the coach sees the same thing you see. The QB isn't playing well. At the same time, the coach is telling you he doesn't have much faith in any of his other options to play better than the current starter.

That's the position Texas is in, and if you want to blame Steve Sarkisian for his playcalling or his offense, go for it. However, I must tell you, whether you like the plays or not, when you watch the tape, the plays are there. The QB just isn't making them. Now you're trying to avoid a three-game losing streak that would destroy your conference title hopes for good and put your playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.

And you're trying to avoid it against the team with the guy who might be the best QB in the country, in Trinidad Chambliss. It's not hard to figure out which team has the better QB in this matchup!

If you're Texas, you'd hope that your defense is the deciding factor here, and it could be. The problem is you won't have Colin Simmons, who has been the best player on your defense by quite a bit. Texas' defense ranks 18th nationally in pressure rate and 11th in sack rate, which is great. Colin Simmons has accounted for 22.6% of your pressures and 55.3% of your sacks. His pressure rate of 20.3% leads your team by miles. How do you replace him? How does the rest of your defense, which benefits from Simmons being the focal point of "we have to stop this guy," adjust to having more attention sent their way? We don't know. We'll find out this week.

On the other side, defense had been Ole Miss' primary concern for its first four games, but things have changed considerably since coming off their bye. The defense has been great against Vanderbilt and Missouri, and last week the Rebels became the first team all season to stuff Missouri's rushing attack. They also stuffed Vandy's. I like their chances of doing the same to a Texas rushing attack that's struggled all season.

If they do, that puts the pressure on Arch Manning to lead the way. How confident are you that he can do it? Confident enough to believe he can outduel Trinidad Chambliss? I'm not. The Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) at DraftKings

No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah: This game has the potential to be a late-night banger, as two of the Big 12's best will be going at it. Both of these offenses have gotten off to incredible starts to the season, but my read on this game has me fading them both a little.

We'll start with a Utah team that hasn't looked nearly as good overall the last two weeks. The Utes' offense has sputtered a bit here lately, which has me wondering if, now that there's more tape out on it, teams have figured out better ways to slow it down. Also, I can't ignore the schedule the Utes have played so far. According to FPI, their current SOS ranks 101st in the country, which is the lowest in the Big 12. Houston is easily the best team the Utes will have faced so far.

On the flip side, while Houston has played a more difficult slate, I can't forget how this offense looked on the road against Texas Tech earlier in the season. In five games against other FBS opponents, the Cougars' offense has averaged 3.37 points per possession. Against Texas Tech, it averaged 2.36. It's only one game, but that's a difference that's tough to ignore. And that Tech game was on the road, just like this one.

It's a bit scary to bet against both of these offenses, but I believe they'll struggle more than we've seen so far, and 56.5 is a pretty critical number. The Pick: Under 56.5 (-104) at Fanduel

Lock of the Week

No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina: The Vols scored a huge win over Alabama last week that launches them right back into the SEC and CFP conversation. They're 6-1 this season with an iffy QB situation, and the reason is their elite defense. So much for the theory that Jim Knowles needs a season for his defense to bed in and get ready!

However, while defense travels, you need to score points too. George MacIntyre will be starting for Tennessee again, and it's not as if he's been lighting the world on fire in place of Faizon Brandon. He's thrown 3 interceptions to 1 touchdown as the starter, and didn't look great on the road against Arkansas. This road environment and this South Carolina defense should pose a greater challenge. The Vols will look to run the ball, but South Carolina's rush defense has been strong. The weakness is in pass defense, and I don't know that the Vols are strong enough in that area to challenge it.

Then there are the other factors. This is college football, and you do have to wonder about a possible letdown for Tennessee here. We've seen it time and again where a team picks up a huge rivalry win and then gets caught with its pants down the next weekend. Also, Tennessee has won at South Carolina only once in its last four trips, and that win came during the COVID season. Finally, South Carolina is coming off a bye. So while Tennessee was giving everything it had to shut down Alabama last week, South Carolina was home preparing for Tennessee. While it's not a large sample, home teams coming off a bye are 11-6 ATS this season against teams that played the previous week. The Pick: South Carolina -2.5 (-108) at FanDuel

Over of the Week

San Diego State at Colorado State: You know how when a quarterback is struggling, a coach will call some easy completions to start the game to build confidence? Maybe a pop pass or a bubble screen. Well, this play is my equivalent of that one.

Taking overs in Colorado State games has been a great idea in 2026. Not only are they 6-0 on the season, but they're going over the listed total by an average of 21 points per game. And if you're wondering if Jim Mora Jr. firing his defensive coordinator mid-game a few weeks ago has fixed anything, it hasn't. This Colorado State defense remains terrible.

It ranks dead last nationally in success rate, explosive play rate, EPA per play, yards per play and negative play rate. The stats where it isn't dead last typically aren't higher than 115th nationally. It's just straight up bad. So bad that even a San Diego State offense that's been pretty ineffective this season should find some success against it, and even if it doesn't, we do have some insurance because San Diego State's defense stinks too!

All those stats I listed for Colorado State? The Aztecs rank outside the top 100 in all of them except explosive play rate. They don't allow a lot of big plays, just a lot of regular ones. The Pick: Over 63.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Team Total of the Week

No. 15 Iowa at Minnesota: It may not be the biggest game on the schedule this week, but it's my favorite game of the weekend because my favorite rivalry trophy is on the line. The Floyd of Rosedale is up for grabs, and both these teams want that beautiful bronze pig. Who will win it? Well, Iowa's the favorite, but I'm not overly confident in picking a side.

What I am confident in, though, is that Minnesota will have a tough time moving the ball. Yes, the Gophers have already picked up a rivalry win against Michigan and a road win against Washington, but the offense has not been overly impressive. In four games against Power Four competition, the Gophers are averaging only 1.47 points per possession and have struggled to run the ball. Their 32.0% rushing success rate ranks 66th among 68 Power Four teams, and their -0.27 EPA per rush ranks 68th.

This year's Iowa defense hasn't been the same as we're used to. It doesn't have a particularly impressive pass rush, nor is it forcing turnovers at the same clip we're accustomed to, but it's done a fantastic job of stopping the run. If Iowa's able to do that here and force Minnesota to rely on its passing attack on third down, I don't know how successful the Gophers will be. Plus, as I write this, while the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 70s at game time, it's supposed to be windy in Minneapolis this weekend. That won't help with Minnesota's passing attack or its ability to kick field goals. The Pick: Minnesota Team Total u16.5 (+100) at FanDuel

Upset of the Week

No. 2 BYU at UCF: I've been pretty conservative with my upset picks this season, typically going after teams that aren't big underdogs. It hasn't worked. So why not go for something a little riskier? An upset that many may not see coming? Again, last week reminded us all that we know nothing and that we should expect the unexpected. So what would be more unexpected this week than the same BYU team that pulled off one of the biggest wins in program history following it up by going on the road and losing to a 3-3 UCF team?

I'm here to tell you it's more likely than you realize. First of all, there's the letdown potential after that Notre Dame win. Now you're traveling to Orlando, where the Knights have been pretty feisty under Scott Frost. The Knights are 8-2 at home since the start of last season and are coming off a bye. They've had extra time to prepare for this game. Also, weather could be a serious factor. It's expected to be humid with a chance of rain and 20mph winds with gusts up to 30mph. We have seen weather be a neutralizing factor plenty of times before. It's one of the reasons we've seen the total in the game drop a couple of points since it was posted. The Pick: UCF (+210) at DraftKings