The Bears, at 6-2 and rising in numerous power rankings, look nothing like the team of many preseason predictions.

Those would be the regressionists.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell was the guy at the front of the parade, when he practically wrote a book on the reasons the Bears were tops for regression.

"I wouldn't be shocked if Williams takes another step forward and the offense follows in kind," Barnwell wrote. "With real concerns about the defense and a guarantee that the Bears won't be quite as lucky with turnovers and special teams work late in games, though, I'm not sure even an improved offense can get Chicago to 11 wins this season."

He also labeled the Broncos and Jaguars top regression candidates. Whoops.

"I want to make these fans extremely proud to be a Bears fan."

Caleb Williams joins @notthefakeSVP and is welcomed by a crowd of Bears fans following their win on the road against the Seahawks 😤 pic.twitter.com/ntWXe10y2w

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 3, 2026

Even Yahoo Sports veteran Frank Schwab joined the dog pile, and when it all came down he used the excuse many others did and pointed at last year's turnover differential, along with the narrow Bears wins of 2025 and the tougher 2026 schedule.

"Williams still had accuracy issues last season, but showed significant growth and it's reasonable to think there's a big leap coming," Schwab wrote. "If he was an MVP candidate in his third season, it wouldn't be a surprise. But plenty of regression indicators are not kind to the Bears.

"Start with turnover differential. The Bears were +22 last season, five better than any other team and nine better than third place. That's likely unsustainable."

What the turnover truthers failed to realize, but many who have watched the NFL have, is you don't play last season over again. The team has changed. Other teams changed. They haven't had to stage miracle comebacks every week this season because they improved in Year 2 under Ben Johnson. This should have been expected.

Bears have not started 6-2 or better through eight games since 2012, when they started 7-1, finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs. #BearDown pic.twitter.com/JsyQuiagFX

— Anthony Ramirez (1-6) (6-2) (89-73) (@Talkin2Tony) November 3, 2026

Pro Football Focus usually finds a way to put all of its analytical numbers in the wrong category and they did with the Bears. Mark Chichester of PFF slated Williams one of the QBs who should take a step back in 2026 and sidekick Bradley Locker cited some other reasons many skipped over for calling the Bears regression candidates.

"At the same time, the Bears suffered a big loss up the middle when center Drew Dalman retired — and replacement Garrett Bradbury has never earned above a 68.0 overall PFF grade in any season," Locker wrote in an article naming the Bears one of three teams who'll take a step back. "Likewise, the team’s receiver room is counting heavily on inconsistent talents like Rome Odunze and Kalif Raymond, who each earned a sub-73.0 PFF receiving grade last season."

Bears regression in 2026-27 is going to hit like a truck🤯

• 11 wins, but only a +26 point differential

• Expected record was just 9.1–7.9

• NFL-best +22 turnover margin, even if they remain good at taking the ball away and get like a +10 thats still 12 less possessions… pic.twitter.com/LprPTILEsZ

— Carson Caldwell (@caldwellcorner_) July 27, 2026

Basing everything on PFF grading isn't advisable and besides that, he must not have been watching Dalman's play near the end of last season. It tailed off. Bradbury has been rock solid and even an upgrade over the way Dalman played from December on last season. Odunze is now coming into his own, finally entirely healthy. Raymond has been a godsend.

They all should have been reading what Jonathan Jones wrote for The Athletic and considered this. He read and heard everything being said about regression. He did get the Panthers right, but let's face it, anyone could have told him they were only in the playoffs last year because the rest of the NFC South was rot.

"History does say that leading the league in takeaways in consecutive years is difficult," Jones wrote. "And repeating six fourth-quarter comeback victories (seven if you count the playoffs) probably isn’t realistic. But what if the Bears don’t put themselves in that position in the first place?"

Why would a better team need to stage such wild comebacks? The Bears clearly were and are better than last year. Jones found a Bears source who didn't want to be named and gave their take on the regression through turnover and schedule comments.

“I think it’s lazy,” this Bears source told him. “You see interceptions and say, ‘You can’t do that again.’ Fourth-quarter comebacks and say, ‘They can’t come back.’ And you’re ignoring all the space in between that can be improved.

“We use it for fuel more than anything.”

“If I was the Chicago Bears, I would take Jayden Daniels.”

- Dan Orlovsky on February 29th 2024
pic.twitter.com/wGMnhl02ua

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 19, 2025

It's very apparent they are using it as fuel, as a 6-2 record going into the Tampa Bay game Sunday night says. Even frequent Williams critic Dan Orlovsky had to admit this week what's obvious.

"This is an incredibly scary football team right now," Orlovsky said.

He had ESPN cohort Mina Kimes saying maybe only Josh Allen is better than Williams now. And she based Allen's edge on mobility, even though she had to admit it's not exactly a Williams weakness,.

"This is an incredibly scary football team right now. ... I think it was a very clear message sent to the NFL."

–@danorlovsky7 on Caleb Williams and the Bears 😤 pic.twitter.com/OOF3O58SqA

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 3, 2026

It was Orlovsky a week ago who was criticizing the Bears for not trading to get DeForest Buckner, who is 3 years older than Jeffery Simmons and doesn't stop the run anywhere near as well as he used to, let alone as well as Simmons does.

The Bears have taken names and remember what was said before the season. Williams even brought this up when he was interviewed by Scott Van Pelt on Monday night's ESPN postgame show.

"Oh yeah, we hear," Williams said about the negative turn predicted for the team before the season.

Here’s a FUN FACT

When Dan Orlovsky rants about how you shouldn’t pair a first time Offensive HC like Ben Johnson with a young QB like Caleb in his Y2….

And how it seems most likely to fail (cherry picking his examples to make the argument)

And how a defensive coach may be… pic.twitter.com/4bZlzV4HJt

— Kirsten Tanis (@Kirsten_Tanis1) January 21, 2025

Can they continue their roll now that the focus is going from regression to Super Bowl. He said the focus always has been not getting ahead of themselves.

"That's my focus each week," Williams told Van Pelt. "Being at my best focus on being where my feet are at and finding ways to make sure the team is there with me and we're not focused on what everybody says on the outside noise because we were supposedly the No. 1 regression team and now everybody is going to jump om the train to the other side."

There's room on their train for everyone, maybe even Barnwell if he wants. It's a train being fueled by a chip on their shoulder.

Dan Orlovsky Can’t Believe The Bears Didn’t Attempt To Trade For Deforest Buckner:

“And then honestly, one of my big takeaways in how does Chicago not make this move?” pic.twitter.com/xCOAZfdGMC

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) October 27, 2026