Between 2008 and 2017, Michael Van Gerwen and Phil Taylor won eight of the ten European Championships between them. In the 2020s, there have been five different winners, and three of these winners have been the biggest shocks the tournament has ever produced, from Ross Smith winning as a 100/1 outsider to Ritchie Edhouse winning the tournament and never coming close to qualifying for it again.

With the tournament kicking off this Thursday in Dortmund, there are a multitude of names that could produce a similar-scale upset following another unpredictable year on the European Tour. So, with all three shock winners not having won a televised PDC title before their European Championship win, what are the numbers behind how to win your first title?

The Three Shocks at a Glance 

	Ross Smith 2022	Edhouse 2024	Van Veen 2025
Seed	27	20	10
World Ranking Before	28	39	10
Pre-Tournament Odds	100/1	200/1	14/1
12-Month Average Before	92.76	92.26	97.76
Tournament Average	98.35	97.45	100.19
Field Average	94.65	93.89	95.23
Final	11–8 vs Michael Smith	11–3 vs Wattimena	11–10 vs Humphries
World Ranking a Year Later	16	28	3

Ross Smith, 2022

In 2022, Ross Smith was ranked 28th in the world and had only won one PDC title, being a Players Championship in 2021. Smudger was far from accomplished in the PDC, hovering in the top 32 and not yet landing himself on any big stage as a truly elite name. Averaging 92.76 going into the tournament and seeded 27th, Smith just about made it to Dortmund, earning £16,000 and not winning a single European Tour event.

The Dover man had little reason to think he could win this title, and his first-round draw of Joe Cullen was a tough contest which he surprisingly passed with flying colours. Winning 6-4 to start his campaign, he averaged 101.63 and continued this tonne-plus average form into his second round, beating Dmitri Van Den Bergh 10-8 with an average of 100.75. On the surface, this makes it look like if a player averages 100+, they will win the European Championship.

It wasn’t that black and white for Smith, as his game was built on finishing. With his 2022 checkout percentage being 35.52%, the key flaw in his game during the early parts of 2022 was finishing. Always a big 180 hitter, the 37-year-old finished at 48.48% across the tournament. The rest of his run didn’t get much easier, beating 2020 Champion Peter Wright in the quarter-final with a 95 average, 10-8; in all the games he played, the leg difference was no larger than three. The story of doubles had its main chapter against the Scotsman, with Smith completely outscored by Wright by a first-nine difference of 8.5, meaning the doubles had to bail out Smith.

Ross Smith checked out 45.45% of his doubles, and Wright checked out just 27.59%, meaning the Scotsman on average needed 2 visits to a double whilst Smith just one; the fundamental reason for his win. His semi-final game followed a similar pattern but to a lesser extent, beating Dobey 11-9, whilst his first nine was 6.14 points lower than the Geordies’. To win, Smith relied on missed doubles rather than producing great doubles of his own, with Dobey hitting just 26.47% of his doubles whilst Smith hit a par 40.74%. Winning by two legs in the game defined by doubles, his composure was such a huge quality, seen with his 130 finish in the first-round match against Cullen, to get one foot closer to victory.

The final was against Michael Smith, who was world number four then, and he won the World Championship the following January. Beating Bully Boy 11-8 with averages of 101.32 to 100.47, the game was a high-quality affair, but Smith was the deserved winner.

Over the tournament, Smith averaged 98.35 whilst the field average was 94.65, considerably outperforming his peers to pick up the title over the weekend. “I think I’m dreaming; I have to pinch myself. It hasn’t sunk in; it probably won’t do for weeks. I’ve never even won a Euro Tour, never mind a TV tournament,” he told Live Darts after he won the title, using this £120,000 prize money to boost his career.

His mindset, demonstrated in this quote, though, shows a player who didn’t expect to win but simultaneously produced averages to show it wasn’t a fluke, playing 5.59 points above his 12-month level. A year after this, he was world number 16, and now he comes into Dortmund seeded 1 and looks to repeat this success again. For players like Cristo Reyes, Niko Springer and Cameron Menzies, who can produce the same level as Smith did in 2022, they can all use this as the blueprint to win their first major title, or at the very least go far.

Winning on Doubles: Ross Smith’s 2022 Run

Round	Opponent	Score	Smith Average	Smith Checkout
First Round	Joe Cullen	6–4	101.63	75.00%
Second Round	Dimitri Van den Bergh	10–8	100.75	50.00%
Quarter-Final	Peter Wright	10–8	95.00	45.45%
Semi-Final	Chris Dobey	11–9	95.27	40.74%
Final	Michael Smith	11–8	101.32	50.00%

Ritchie Edhouse, 2024

If Smith’s 2022 run was an underdog story that defined a breakthrough moment, Edhouse’s is a complete Cinderella story that completely shattered the bookmakers' expectations. Enjoying a solid 2024 that saw him seeded 20th and ranked 39th in the world, Paddy Power ranked him at 200/1 as an outsider for the title, and he was given little respect by the media. Good results and bad performances are often separate, but Edhouse was definitely proof that they can be together, with a far-from-staggering 92.26 average and 101.56 in the first nine going into Dortmund, which meant, on paper, he was statistically outclassed by his first-round opponent, Gian Van Veen.

But tangible results can produce much more momentum than knowing you’ve played well despite a loss, with Edhouse thrashing the Dutchman 6-1 and averaging 109.48, his highest on TV to date. With a first nine of 121.52, the Enfield man flew out on stage and didn’t give The Giant time to breathe in one of the European Championships' most dominant displays.

For a man whose only PDC titles had been on the Challenge Tour, this display alone would have left him happy to fly home the next day. Beating Michael Smith in the next round in a last-leg decider 10-9, Edhouse produced a decent performance, averaging 96.15, still 3.89 points higher than his 2024 average. Peak sports performance is about peaking at the right time, using your training in moderation to dictate your peak and achieve it when the highest reward is on the line. Edhouse utilised this and even in the Quarter-Final, averaged 103.91 in a comfortable 10-5 win against 2015 finalist Gary Anderson.

Gary Anderson’s 2015 campaign was more successful than Edhouse had ever been, but Madhouse came into this tournament as a free hit, and it showed. Winning the semi-finals 11-5 against Luke Woodhouse, the draw was finally kind to Edhouse in the last two stages of the tournament against uncomplaining players.

This almost got the worst out of Edhouse, with the Englishman dropping to a 95.03 average against Woody, showing signs of his 2024 form. Over the tournament, Edhouse’s peak stresses how important it is to overperform at a TV major: averaging 97.45 over the tournament, he outperformed the field average by 3.56 points. If Edhouse came into the tournament and averaged his 2024 figure of 92.26, he would have been 1.63 points below the field average.

Therefore, this range between his 2024 average and his European Championship average of 5.19 demonstrates the difference between never winning a PDC tour title and winning a PDC TV major.

Edhouse against Wattimena in the final was a final nobody expected, and it produced a result no one expected. The third most one-sided final in the history of the tournament, Edhouse beat the Dutchman 11-3 to secure the trophy, with averages of 90.55 to 84.64. That is the lowest winning average in a European Championship final, and it was all due to checkouts from Wattiemna.

Hitting three from 29, Edhouse was given the keys to the trophy, and his post-match reaction showed it, stating, “I’m on cloud nine at the moment. I’ve got a bit of grit in my game now. I might have rolled over previously, but now I have the belief, and my confidence went up throughout the game."

However, this breakthrough didn't last too long. Two years later, he hasn’t qualified for this tournament since, and it seemed to be a flash in the pan. With the money coming off Edhouse’s ranking next year, he will sit on the wrong side of the top 50, in a worse position than he was in 2024. A blueprint on how to win the tournament, but far from a guide on how to follow up winning a TV title.

The Lowest Winning Average

Metric	Edhouse	Wattimena
Average	90.55	84.64
First Nine	99.64	98.00
Checkout %	45.83% (11/24)	10.34% (3/29)
Legs Won Throwing Second	71.43%	14.29%
180s	5	3
Highest Checkout	144	56

Gian Van Veen, 2025

Of the three champions, Van Veen’s title was the least surprising and the most significant. Twelve months after Edhouse had dismantled him 6-1 on the opening night, The Giant arrived in Dortmund seeded 10th, ranked 10th in the world and priced at 14/1 by Paddy Power, a short price next to the 100/1 and 200/1 of the two champions before him. The numbers explained why.

Averaging 97.76 over the previous 12 months with a 105.57 first nine, Van Veen was already scoring at an elite level, and his 46.64% checkout percentage was the best in the world at the time. What he lacked was silverware, with a Players Championship in 2025 and two World Youth Championships, the only titles to his name. Beating Damon Heta 6-3 with a 98.73 average, he settled into the tournament before producing the best performance of any of the three runs in this article.

Thrashing Ryan Searle 10-2 with a 109.92 average and a 118.31 first nine, Van Veen won all six legs on his own throw and averaged 117.28 against the throw, giving Heavy Metal no route back into the game. A 10-5 win over Ryan Joyce, averaging 101.40, kept the momentum going before the semi-final against Michael van Gerwen showed a different side to his game. Outscored on the first nine, 100.45 to 106.30, and averaging just 93.76, Van Veen won 11-9 by doing what Smith had done in 2022, checking out at 55% while the three-time world champion hit just 33.33% of his doubles.

Where Edhouse won his final on doubles, Van Veen won his on scoring. Facing Luke Humphries, the world number one and the heavy favourite, Van Veen averaged 101.00 to Cool Hand’s 95.24 and led on the first nine by over eight points, 110.87 to 102.63. Yet Humphries checked out at 45.45% to Van Veen’s 39.29%, keeping the final level until the very last leg.

Winning 11-10, the Dutchman secured his first major title. “I will never forget this moment, and it’s phenomenal to win my first major title in Germany. What a night!” Averaging 100.19 across the tournament, 4.96 points above the field average of 95.23 and the highest of the three champions, Van Veen played only 2.43 points above his 12-month level, the smallest jump of the three, and that is exactly why his title has lasted.

Smith and Edhouse needed the week of their lives, while Van Veen needed his usual level and a little more. What followed proves it, with a World Championship final and a World Matchplay semi-final in 2026, and a rise to world number three a year later. Edhouse’s title stood alone. Van Veen’s launched a career, and he arrives on Thursday as the defending champion, facing the question of whether he can win a second.

From 6-1 Down to Champion: Van Veen’s 2025 run

Round	Opponent	Score	Van Veen Average	First Nine
First Round	Damon Heta	6–3	98.73	104.22
Second Round	Ryan Searle	10–2	109.92	118.31
Quarter-Final	Ryan Joyce	10–5	101.40	111.40
Semi-Final	Michael van Gerwen	11–9	93.76	100.45
Final	Luke Humphries	11–10	101.00	110.87

The Blueprint

Three champions produced three very different runs, but the numbers tell the same story. All three averaged well above their 12-month level in Dortmund, Smith by 5.59 points, Edhouse by 5.19 and Van Veen by 2.43, and all three outperformed the field by between 3.56 and 4.96 points.

The bigger pattern sits at the end of legs. Smith checked out at 48.48% against a 12-month figure of 35.52%, Edhouse at 44.86% against 39.02%, and Van Veen at 48.98% against an already elite 46.64%. Remarkably, each of them won exactly 48 legs across the five rounds.

The European Championship has rewarded the player having the best week rather than the best year, and the format plays its part, with a first-to-six opening round leaving any seed exposed before the longer rounds reward whoever has found their rhythm. That makes the 2026 field more open than the seedings suggest.

Chris Dobey arrives as the 23rd seed with a 97.33 average, the third-highest of the 13 Englishmen in the field, while Reyes, Springer and Menzies all have the level to follow Smith’s blueprint. Smith himself returns to the Westfalenhalle, where he won as the 27th seed in 2022, this time as the number one seed. If history repeats itself, the name lifting the trophy on Sunday may not be one the bookmakers are talking about on Thursday.