Quarterback is the most important position in football. It can also be the trickiest position for NFL front offices to navigate. By its very nature, even league-average QBs rise to the top their team's payroll. There are 13 NFL QBs making north of $50 million annually, with more strong candidates coming down the pipeline.

Good-not-great quarterbacks on a rookie contract can be one of the best bargains in the league. Good-not-great quarterbacks on their first extension, however, can quickly become an anchor that weighs down progress. The Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans are all at a similar crossroads.

Broncos will 'wait and see' with Bo Nix

Bo Nix's third NFL season is off to a brutal start. The alarm bells are starting to sound in Denver, as Nix ranks dead last in air yards per attempt through six weeks. Is he still shaking off the rust from offseason ankle surgery? Have NFL teams "figured him out," so to speak? It's unclear what exactly the problem is, but Nix — who led the league in completions and led Denver to the AFC Championship Game as an NFL sophomore — now faces uncertainty around his future.

The Broncos could affirm their confidence in Nix and hand him a long-term extension next summer. Sean Payton has been Nix's biggest cheerleader since the team selected him 12th overall in 2024, well before consensus mandated. Or, Denver may notice the changing tides and adjust accordingly.

According to ESPN's Jeff Legwold: "If [Nix's] play doesn't improve dramatically, the most likely scenario would be the Broncos exercising the contract's fifth-year option next spring, then taking a wait-and-see approach into the 2027 season."

He compares that approach to Carolina and Houston with Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, respectively (more on them shortly). Next season is the final guaranteed year of Nix's rookie contract, with a club option in 2028. The Broncos can keep Nix under wraps, on the cheap, for two more years. That would alleviate the ill effects of subpar performance, as it allows Denver to spend elsewhere. It could also frustrate Nix, however. Most NFL "stars" don't like to dawdle in contract limbo. This league is so physically demanding; financial security is held at a premium.

If Nix continues to perform like this — in a manner "almost disrespectful to the quarterback position," to quote former NFL QB Ryan Fitzpatrick — then his feelings on the matter will be secondary to the correct business decision for Denver. This Broncos team has an incredibly high floor on the strength of its defense. That strength takes a hit as soon as Nix signs an extension, which will force cost cuts. If the Broncos aren't sold on Nix as the man to get them across the finish line, well, it makes sense to install contingency plans. The 2027 NFL Draft happens to include a wealth of lauded QB prospects.

CJ Stroud's future hinges on the remainder of Texans season

The Texans were a popular underdog pick to win it all coming into the season. After an 0-4 start, however, CJ Stroud was fully under the microscope. Stroud has a year on Bo Nix and is thus a year ahead of him on the same track. The Texans picked up his fifth-year option for 2027; despite rumors of a $50 million-plus annual extension, he's currently making $11.5 million, with nothing in the way of long-term security.

The biggest difference between Stroud and Nix is that Stroud is a legitimate NFL quarterback. That is mild hyperbole; Nix has his positive traits and he led Denver to 14 wins last season, which necessitates a certain base level competence. That said, Stroud was a top-10 quarterback as a rookie. He finished eighth in MVP voting that season, in fact. The last couple years have supplied more questions than answers, but Stroud is a level above Nix at this point.

Stroud can struggle with accuracy, especially under pressure, but he's a sharp processor who keeps a lid on turnovers. He also can layer his passes deep and short, in a way Nix simply cannot (or does not). Stroud is fairly agile in and out of the pocket; he has flashes where he looks like the superstar we were all promised upon his debut. Through six starts this season, despite the team's overall struggles, Stroud has five starts with 250-plus passing yards. He has thrown nine touchdowns with only one interception. He's playing well.

The Texans are somehow in an even tougher spot than Denver as a result. Stroud has the talent to pay off a major extension, but he has yet to prove himself on the level of truly elite quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love or even Jalen Hurts pre-Eagles collapse; that would be the $50 million-plus crowd. Stroud's horrendous postseason track record is the real stinker. It's a small sample size — he's only 25 years old — but Stroud has consistently hit a wall in the playoffs. That makes the calculus difficult for the Houston front office.

At the end of the day, here's the rub: Rookie quarterbacks are a complete shot in the dark. Even No. 1 picks can bomb. It happens more than you'd like. The Texans are also benefitted by an elite (or potentially elite) defense, with real talent at the skill positions on offense, too. Stroud has proven himself enough, in my book, to get that big-money contract — assuming Houston can turn its season around. If Houston can keep it below $50 million annually, hedging against Stroud's mixed reputation, even better.

Can the Panthers trust Bryce Young's ascent?

The Carolina Panthers are quietly 3-2, with a clear path to winning the NFC South and hosting a playoff game for the second straight season. Bryce Young, after three years of uncertainty, has finally blossomed into a quarterback worthy of his No. 1 pick designation. Young might receive MVP votes at his current pace. He has the sixth-highest PFF grade among NFL quarterbacks this season, with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions; he has 1,549 passing yards with a 60.2 percent completion rate.

This Carolina offense ranks seventh in estimated points added per play (00.6) and eighth on passes (0.15). The Panthers benefit from a weak division, no doubt, but there's something real and sustainable about their success right now. Young with a real O-line and a competent wide receiver room, as it turns out, is a damn solid quarterback.

There will always be discourse around Young and Stroud specifically as the top picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Realistically, Carolina made the "wrong" choice, insofar as Stroud has fewer limitations and a better arm. That said, Young is quick savvy in his own right, with the ability to really sling it when his 5-foot-10 frame isn't mobbed by a collapsing pass rush. He's also nimble outside the pocket, able to deliver slick throws on the move to compensate for his diminutive stature.

Given his success this season, Carolina will have a tough time abandoning the Young experiment. His fifth-year option is already picked up, so technically the Panthers have another year to determine their final course of action. More realistically, Young is up for a shiny new contract extension this summer, just like Stroud. He's probably not worthy of the $50 million-plus club, so Carolina should negotiate hard. That said, less than a year ago, even Panthers fans probably agreed that their odds of finding a true franchise quarterback were better with a touted rookie. That narrative has flipped. Young feels much too productive and entrenched under head coach Dave Canales to hand over the offense to an unknown.

Could Carolina decide to let Young's contract expire in 2027 and pursue a cheap, replacement-level free agent, a la the Vikings with Kyler Murray this past offseason? Sure. There's merit to the idea, especially since the Panthers still need to stock up at the skill positions. Then again, Young is 25 years old and he's on a clear growth trajectory. So, at the end of the day, he should probably get an extension from the Panthers. Ideally, it's a shorter, cheaper extension that maintains optionality, but do not count on it if his current production holds.

Other important QB decisions around the league

Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett skipped OTAs this summer when the Cardinals refused to extend his contract. In the end, he returned on a reworked one-year, $15.5 million deal. The Cardinals are a scrappy 2-4 and Brissett is one of the more dependable journeyman quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's not the long-term answer. If he does return next season, it will probably be on another one-year deal to serve as the placeholder for Carson Beck or a 2027 first-round pick.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

After an Achilles injury cut his 2025 campaign short, Daniel Jones failed to land his desired long-term extension with Indianapolis. Instead, he signed a two-year, $88 million deal, with an out after this season. Given his struggles and the Colts' overall underperformance — plus seismic changes to the front office — there's a good chance Indy moves on next summer, leaving Jones to search for a job on the free agent market.