ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum believes Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, not quarterback Arch Manning, carries the heaviest burden into Saturday’s game between No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 19 Texas, warning a third straight loss could turn the fan base on him.

Finebaum made the case Friday on ESPN’s “Get Up,” saying that “if Texas loses this game, Sarkisian is the one with the bull’s-eye on his back.” Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Austin.

Why is Sarkisian under more pressure?

Finebaum told ESPN host Mike Greenberg the weekend carries more weight for the sixth-year Texas coach than for his quarterback.

“As big a game as this is for Arch Manning, and I think when it’s over he’ll have a better idea, this is an even bigger game for Sarkisian,” Finebaum said. “Arch Manning can figure out what he wants to do.”

The coach doesn’t have that flexibility, according to Finebaum. “Sarkisian may not have any runway left because that’s how quickly this fan base will turn on him,” he said.

Finebaum still picked Texas to win, the only “Get Up” analyst to do so. But a loss would give the Longhorns three regular-season losses for a second straight year and their first three-game losing streak since Sarkisian’s 5-7 debut in 2021.

Finebaum’s criticism of Sarkisian builds

In the preseason, Finebaum picked Texas to win the SEC and said “I do think this is Sarkisian’s year.”

On Oct. 14, he called the former USC and Washington coach’s claim that Manning would draw praise if his name were Joe Smith “complete hogwash.” After the Florida loss, Finebaum told host Matt Barrie his headline for the first half of the season was “Steve Sarkisian flops again.”

Sarkisian is 52-22 at Texas with College Football Playoff semifinal trips after the 2023 and 2024 seasons. But the 2025 team opened No. 1 in the AP poll and finished 10-3 outside the Playoff, and this year’s group lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and Florida in its last two games after beating then-No. 1 Ohio State in September.

The offense Sarkisian calls ranks 93rd nationally in yards per game, and Texas entered the Florida game with the SEC’s worst three-and-out rate at nearly 29%.

How does Texas look entering Saturday?

Manning remains the starter, but redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. is taking more first-team reps this week. Asked about Manning after the Florida loss, Sarkisian said “everything means everything.”

Manning has completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Lacey, the 2024 Alabama Mr. Football, is 7-of-8 for 63 yards in two appearances.

Texas also expects to be without edge rusher Colin Simmons, the nation’s sack leader with 10.5, because of a high-ankle sprain. Ole Miss (5-1) arrives off a 31-3 win over Missouri behind quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.

SEC Network analyst Greg McElroy picked the Rebels this week, and ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit said Texas lost its margin for error with the Florida loss.