One of the toughest decisions for the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason will be about first baseman Jake Bauers. The club will have to consider extending a qualifying offer, valued at $23.15 million, before he hits free agency.

The 31-year-old is coming off a breakout campaign in 2026, in which he slashed .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and a 143 wRC+. He was a key middle-of-the-order bat for a 103-win Brewers club that dominated their way to a World Series championship.

That alone should create a fairly sizeable market for Bauers. And the Brewers could capitalize on that situation and potentially get a draft pick out of it.

Why the Brewers Could Extend the Qualifying Offer to Jake Bauers

Even though Bauers has a pretty meager track record before 2026, it's hard to replace the production he put in the lineup. Milwaukee's potential heir apparent at first base might be prospect Andrew Fischer, but he's not a realistic factor for 2027.

The qualifying offer is essentially a one-year, $23.15 million contract. The Brewers should have some windfall from their World Series championship and increase their payroll to keep this window alive. If Bauers accepts the qualifying offer, he's their everyday first baseman in 2027.

The Brewers would be happy to bring back a first baseman who was in the top 10 percent in xwOBA (.373), average exit velocity (92.1 MPH), Barrel% (14.0%), and Hard-Hit rate (51.9%). Those metrics indicate that Bauers was one of the most impactful bats on a rate basis.

The decision for the Brewers to extend the qualifying offer, and for Bauers to accept or decline it, will happen before the CBA expires. The qualifying offer system could be drastically different once negotiations come to an end. But it also doesn't mean the club shouldn't try every avenue possible to strengthen their club.

Given the underlying metrics support Bauers' 2026 season, he should have a fairly robust market. Whether it's enough to break $50 million and net the Brewers a potential first rounder is up in the air, and the qualifying offer will impact that.

Why the Brewers Might Not Extend Jake Bauers a Qualifying Offer

Alluding to Bauers' track record, it is a risky bet to give someone $23.15 million after a career year. If the Brewers are comfortable with just getting a second-round pick back, then the decision is less difficult.

Before his breakout, Bauers had a career .672 OPS and was worth -1.2 bWAR over 613 games. His tantalizing skill set as a hitter had him bouncing around multiple clubs before he found more sustained success in Milwaukee.

His track record before and with the Brewers will likely factor into the club's projections for 2027. They have some internal value metrics that could decide how well he'll perform in his Age-31 season. If that metric says that the $23.15 million is risky, they'll elect to let him reach free agency and get nothing in return.

Verdict: Yes

The club was willing to give a riskier player, Brandon Woodruff, a qualifying offer. With the current qualifying offer system in place, it almost seems like a given the Brewers will do the same with Bauers. The compensation they would get for losing him is something out of their control anyway.

The Brewers have nothing to lose by extending Bauers a qualifying offer. If the system changes in the next CBA, that's something unforeseen and not necessarily a punishment. If it's relatively the same, Milwaukee could get a relatively high draft selection in the 2027 MLB Draft or retain a borderline All-Star-level player.

The Brewers should field a higher payroll in 2027. One use for their new spending power would be to extend the qualifying offer to Bauers and try to re-sign him in free agency.