As the 2026 college football season nears the end of October, what many analysts previously thought were givens about the playoff bracket are being disproven.

That was true of one first-time College Football Playoff contender from a year ago that had high hopes of returning to the national championship field in 2026.

Big 12 hopeful takes a dive

Coming into this season, there was some legitimate concern from analysts that the Texas Tech defense maybe lost a little too much on that stellar defense from a year ago.

Last weekend, after watching the Red Raiders not make enough tackles to avoid a surprise upset loss at unranked Cincinnati, and now that criticism has been warranted.

Going into that game, the rush defense, in particular, was considered one of the very best in the country, ranking No. 5 in FBS in total production. But it couldn’t stop the Bearcats ground attack from gaining momentum and ultimately icing the game.

As a result, the reigning Big 12 champions saw their chance of repeating as College Football Playoff hopefuls saw a massive drop.

Texas Tech was the second-largest faller in the latest playoff projection odds calculated by the College Football Power Index, with a 33 percent decline from week to week, down to just 34 percent, according to ESPN Insights.

What happens this week could define their season

Coming out of that loss, the Red Raiders suddenly have their backs against the wall this week as they return home against resurgent Big 12 hopeful, No. 22 ranked Arizona.

Both are locked in a three-way tie along with BYU for the second-place position in the conference standings, and the winner will have one massive tiebreaker on their side.

Texas Tech losing that game, combined with Arizona and Utah or BYU winning down the stretch would keep the reigning Big 12 champs out of the playoff field this year.

Group of Six contender sees hopes slip away

While the Red Raiders saw the second-biggest drop in the playoff race, a one-time Group of Six hopeful were victims of the largest fall.

James Madison had played itself to a 7-0 record and was moving into contention alongside Boise State as the best non-power team in the playoff conversation.

But an overtime loss to Appalachian State the last time out instead resulted in the Dukes’ odds of making the field dip 38 percent, to just 7.6 percent.

Boise State saw its chances increase to 47 percent as a result of the James Madison loss and its own sixth-straight win of the season.