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It’s finally time for the College Football Playoff selection committee to meet and rank teams. Soon we’ll know just how much they weigh résumé vs. eye test, how they try to make sense of this chaotic season so far and which teams are firmly in the hunt for a bid and which ones have work to do before Selection Sunday.
With all that in mind, it’s time to examine just what the impact of the results from the past weekend will have by entering The Eliminator—where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where the field stands after Week 9.
Zero teams (0% of the bracket)
34 teams, 25% of FBS
104 teams, 75% of FBS
The ACC tiebreakers get complicated given the mix of programs playing an uneven amount of games and the fact that outside analytics will potentially be used. That’s why SMU remains theoretically alive despite this weekend’s inexplicable loss to Syracuse and how Dabo Swinney is still in a position to say, I told you so, to many people if he can sneak into the CFP. As things stand, we’re on course for a rematch between Miami and Wake Forest that will go a long way in the league potentially garnering multiple bids.
The big news out of the Big 12 was commissioner Brett Yormark is set to exit early next year, but the conference hosted some of the biggest CFP intrigue. The Cowboys were the big loser as their CFP dreams once again took a hit with a wild, last-second loss to Iowa State—though that’s just their second in conference and they can still make it to Arlington, Texas, to play for the auto-bid in the conference title game as it stands. The same holds true for Arizona even if it needs more help with head-to-head results not in its favor against either Texas Tech or BYU. Things will become a little more straightforward after Saturday’s Holy War, but there’s intrigue throughout the Big 12 footprint.
There are 10 programs with two or fewer losses in the conference standings so the Big Ten isn’t quite thinning out like you would expect at this point in the season. That said, there’s a clear pecking order with UCLA, Indiana and Ohio State, followed by a chasing pack of teams with USC and Minnesota. Head-to-head tiebreakers will mean a lot, which is why the Trojans can still believe in a trip to Indianapolis for the league championship game given who remains on the docket. The potential for the league to get more than three teams is a stretch depending on how the committee rankings look on Tuesday night, with plenty of hopes hinging on Ohio State looking improved.
The poor, poor Cornhuskers appear to be cursed. How else do you explain holding the halftime lead in all eight games but entering November at just 5–3 overall? The way they lost to Washington in a dreadful game mostly played between the 30-yard lines will go down in history as quite the low point even if, as Matt Rhule said afterward, they nearly pulled out a win with only seven points.
The field is crowded in the SEC as teams jockey for a conference title game trip to Atlanta, but the league seems well positioned for plenty of at-large CFP bids. The question is who might be able to close the year strong as there are several games (including LSU-Alabama, Texas-Missouri and Tennessee-Kentucky this weekend) that are shaping up as must-wins for teams flirting with a second or third loss. If anybody can place a 9–3 team into the bracket, it will almost certainly be the SEC, but the nature of the uneven schedules and teams beating each other up means it will be part of a difficult decision ahead for the committee.
Though the Fighting Irish eventually dispatched Navy over the weekend, it was pretty disastrous for their playoff strength of schedule overall. BYU looked uneven for the second straight game, upcoming opponent SMU lost a winnable contest at Syracuse and Wisconsin was blown out just after notching its biggest win of the year. Is it possible they go 10–2 and get left out of the CFP for a second straight year if they lose to Miami? Yes because they may not have a Top 25 win.
A nearly disastrous weekend for the Pac-12 was the American’s to gain as all three of their top contenders for the league title grew a step closer to snagging the Group of 6 bid. Memphis looked like it was supposed to in a blowout of Army after two straight games where it didn’t put its opponents away. North Texas won yet another shootout, this time against FAU. UTSA remains the favorite given its home field advantage, but you really can’t rule out any of these teams to make the playoff entering November.
It was a historic weekend for the Lobos as they received their first-ever Top 25 ranking in the AP poll and saw Boise State falter enough to open the door to the Mountain West favorites to get a CFP bid. It will be interesting to see if the committee also ends up ranking New Mexico somewhere in the Top 25. The Lobos certainly have a case with the nation’s top scoring defense and a remarkable +17 turnover margin.
The swings of emotions on the blue turf were incredible if you were a neutral and heart palpitation–inducing if you were a supporter. First the Broncos dedicated a Kellen Moore statue and then raced out to a big lead against Texas State, only to give it all back and stare at a devastating loss. Then starting quarterback Maddux Madsen went down with a knee injury and was later seen on crutches, only for his backup to come in and lead a thrilling comeback. Either way, the team remains alive for the CFP, even if it may have given plenty of hope to teams in other conferences.
Even with two losses, the Beavers were a potential CFP team, but a third with both Boise State and Texas State still to play is not going to be in the cards. Oregon State remains alive to win the Pac-12, but failing to get stops and turning the ball over so much in that road trip to Fresno State was always going to spell the end of their faint playoff hopes.
The Dukes have to be just kicking themselves as it sure felt like everything was aligning for a return to the playoff two weeks ago. Then the school announced a move to the American and nothing has been the same since. That includes their second straight overtime loss in league play to go from CFP contender to needing a little help in order to even make it to the Sun Belt title game.
PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.
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