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Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 8 results

The latest round of bowl projections surfaced following Week 8 action in the Big 12 Conference.

BYU may have lost to UCF last week, but projections still put them in the College Football Playoff picture. Utah is also a consensus playoff selection, though projections differ on which Big 12 team will be top-seeded.

ESPN released its updated projections after Week 7, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. According to ESPN, this is the first week BYU and Utah are projected to win a playoff game. One analyst projects Utah reaching the semifinals against Miami but not the national championship game. CBS projects BYU to lose in the first round and Utah to lose to Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. USA TODAY Sports projects BYU to win in the first round but lose to Georgia in the Peach Bowl.

Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado, TCU and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game.

Oct 17, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA;  Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders against the game against the Utah Utes at Folsom Field.  Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado is the only Big 12 team that hasn't won a conference game. They are currently on a five-game losing streak after starting the year 2-0. The Buffaloes need to win four of their final five games to become bowl-eligible, and all their final opponents have winning records, starting with Kansas State this Saturday. It seems highly unlikely they'll go to a bowl game, which raises bigger questions for the program.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oct 24, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA;  Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire stands on the field with his team during a stop in play against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

The general consensus is that Texas Tech will land in the Alamo Bowl after last week's loss to Cincinnati. Their defense, once seen as their strength, proved to be their Achilles' heel against the Bearcats. The Red Raiders have played in the Alamo Bowl three times, losing two, both to Iowa. However, they won their last Alamo Bowl appearance in 2010.

UCF Knights

Oct 10, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA;  UCF Knights huddle during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

After their upset win over BYU, they'll likely make a bowl game for the first time since 2023. They need only two more wins, and they still have to play Kansas and Colorado, two of the Big 12's worst teams. UCF has played in only 15 bowl games and has never played in the Armed Forces Bowl or First Responder Bowl. However, they have played in the Liberty Bowl twice, winning in 2010 and losing in 2007.

Baylor Bears

Oct 24, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) is tackled by Kansas Jayhawks cornerback Lennie Brown III (17) during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Even though they are 4-3, I am starting to wonder if Baylor will even reach six wins and become bowl-eligible. They lost their last two games against TCU and Kansas, games they should have won. Now they face UCF, who just beat BYU, and Iowa State before finishing their season against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. Their game this Saturday against the Knights might be a must-win if they are going to make a bowl game.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Oct 24, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham against the Kansas State Wildcats in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Sitting at 4-3, they could make a bowl game for the third year in a row. However, they need to take care of business with two more wins. Their best chances at a win are against Colorado and UCF. If they lose either, they will need a win against BYU, Oklahoma State, or Arizona. Regardless, the Sun Devils likely won't have more than six wins this year.

Houston Cougars

Oct 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA;  Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman (1) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

With two losses in the Big 12, Houston's chances of making the Big 12 Championship are effectively gone. However, they are still a strong candidate for the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Seeing the Cougars' defense face SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has over 2,000 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes, would make for an interesting bowl matchup.

BYU Cougars

Oct 9, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA;  BYU Cougars wide reciever Jojo Phillips (13) runs the ball during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at LaVell Edwards Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Despite their ugly loss to UCF, BYU is still in the playoff picture, and some analysts even project them to win in the first round. Their loss to the Knights seems more like a fluke than anything, given how sloppy they played and their unsportsmanlike penalties. Every team has a bad game sometimes, but they will need to be on their game in a few weeks when they face Utah.

Oct 24, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Jacob Knuth (7) against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Their conference record is poor, but Kansas State is undefeated outside of the Big 12. They need only two more wins to become bowl-eligible, and they still have Colorado, TCU and Iowa State on their schedule. They made four straight bowl games from 2021 to 2024 before falling short of bowl eligibility in 2025, so any bowl game would help the program.

Utah Utes

Oct 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA;  Utah Utes running back Wayshawn Parker (1) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Cougars at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Utah is the top team in the Big 12 after beating Houston, while BYU and Texas Tech lost. They still have to play BYU, which could be a Big 12 Championship preview. Unless they suffer a surprising loss or two, the Utes seem like a sure thing to make the playoffs for the first time in the CFP era.

Arizona Wildcats

Oct 24, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA;  Arizona Wildcats linebacker Dash Fifita (0) celebrates during the third quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at Casino Del Sol Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

At 6-1, the Wildcats are already bowl-eligible. They have played in the Sun Bowl three times, but are still looking for their first win. They defeated BYU in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl, so that may be their preferred bowl game. If Arizona wins out, they could reach the Big 12 Championship, which would open the door to making the playoffs.

Oct 24, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA;  Cincinnati Bearcats wide receiver Larenzo Fenner (2) gestures a first down after making a catch against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

After their surprise win over Texas Tech, Cincinnati is one win away from bowl eligibility. The consensus is that they will play Michigan in the Cactus Bowl. They have never played in the Cactus Bowl before and have never faced the Wolverines in a bowl game. In fact, they've played Michigan only once, in 2017, and lost. This would be an interesting matchup, especially since Michigan's quarterback change. The Bearcats have lost their last four bowl games and are looking for their first win since 2019.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA;  West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver DJ Epps (2) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Milan Puskar Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

West Virginia needs just one more win to get into a bowl game, most likely against Kansas. The Mountaineers seem most likely to end up in the Independence Bowl, but have a history in the Liberty Bowl. They have played in that bowl game three times, but have won only once, back in 2020 against Army. Watching them play Missouri would also be a fun game.

OSU players run on the field before an NCAA football game between the Oklahoma State University (OSU) Cowboys and the University of Central Florida (UCF) Knights at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026.

There is clear consensus that Oklahoma State will play in the Texas Bowl and most likely face Oklahoma. They have played in the Texas Bowl twice, losing in 2019 and winning in 2023. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have met 118 times, making it one of college football's oldest rivalries. After years apart due to conference realignment, college football fans would love to see this rivalry renewed in a bowl game.

Oct 9, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) as seen during warmups prior to a game against the BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Most likely, the Cyclones will not make a bowl game. They are 3-4 with their final games against Oklahoma State, Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF and Kansas State. ESPN Analytics does not favor Iowa State to win any of those games. If they lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, the Cyclones will finish the season 0-5 against ranked teams.

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