Rangers find themselves firmly in the thick of the Scottish Premiership title race under Derek McInnes, sitting second in the standings. Yet, as the season approaches its demanding winter stretch, a deeper examination of the underlying numbers reveals a ticking clock on their championship ambitions.

At first glance, the defensive side of the ledger looks remarkably stable and capable of sustaining a title charge. Through 10 matches, Rangers actually edge Celtic on expected goals conceded (10.7 to 10.8) while shipping just seven actual goals – virtually identical to the league leaders (six goals conceded).

However, a severe chasm opens up dramatically at the opposite end of the pitch. While Celtic have plundered 25 goals, Rangers have managed only 17, leaving them four points adrift in the Scottish Premiership table.

Rangers take more touches in the opposition box than anyone else

A superficial glance might suggest that Rangers simply struggle to enter the final third or dominate territorial battles. In reality, comprehensive FotMob data reveals the exact opposite: Rangers actually lead the entire Scottish Premiership with 396 touches in the opposition box, out-ranking Celtic’s 369.

The key takeaway is that while Rangers have the ball in the opposition box far more than anyone else, what they do from those positions remains the central issue.

They do not create as high a volume of ‘big chances’ as Celtic (35 vs 53). However, the individual quality of the chances Rangers do generate remains exceptionally high – evidenced by their robust 24.2 team xG.

The figures point to two related problems: Rangers are creating fewer big chances than Celtic, and they are not converting their existing opportunities efficiently enough. Their high number of opposition-box touches is not translating into the same volume of clear scoring opportunities, while the underperformance of key attackers is compounding the issue.

While Rangers boast an overall expected goals (xG) tally of 24.2, their actual output of 17 goals highlights a severe, ongoing underperformance. That creative-to-clinical disconnect is heavily influenced by individual struggles in the final third.

Minsu Kim and Djeidi Gassama are part of the problem

While forward Ryan Don Naderi (5.4 xG, 5 goals) and others have missed chances, they are performing virtually on par with their underlying expectations. By contrast, Minsu Kim (2.6 xG, 0 goals) and Djeidi Gassama (2.4 xG, 0 goals) stick out like sore thumbs.

Together, Kim and Gassama carry an expected goals tally of 5.0 xG between them without scoring a single league goal. Combined with the fact that they top Rangers’ internal shots per 90 charts (8.9 combined), their inefficiency as primary wide threats is contributing to the team’s goal-scoring shortfall.

Dominating penalty box entries means nothing if the killer instinct is missing; McInnes must extract greater efficiency from his wide forwards to bridge the gap.

Celtic’s goal tally has been boosted by emphatic wins, including a 5-1 victory over Kilmarnock and a 7-1 demolition of Hearts. Those results highlight the scale of their attacking threat, while also illustrating how a handful of high-scoring matches can widen the gap in raw goal totals.

By contrast, Rangers have scored more than twice in a match on only two occasions this season: a 3-1 win over Kilmarnock and Saturday’s 4-0 victory against St Johnstone.

Why last three games point towards an upward trend

Despite these attacking friction points, recent weeks offer genuine cause for encouragement under McInnes’s tactical stewardship.

Since the international break, Rangers have scored at least two goals in all three of their league outings, suggesting their attacking output may be beginning to improve. While they may not completely bridge the gap to their peak expected metrics overnight, closing that finishing deficit will naturally translate into tight, tense scorelines turning into decisive three points.

With both teams level on matches played, Rangers cannot afford to let the goal-scoring gap widen any further. If McInnes can harness his side’s league-leading box presence and get players like Gassama and Minsu firing when it counts, that four-point gap at the top can be hunted down.