Back
How will this year's World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports' Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.
In real life, the Milwaukee Brewers have three more chances to close out the 2026 World Series, so the pressure won't really start ramping up unless they have to return home still looking for that clinching victory.
In USA TODAY Sports' annual Simulated World Series, the Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are on much more even footing, with each team winning twice on the other's home field. Game 5, in this sense, is more pivotal than it is a potential endpoint.
Also in our version of the series, the Rays have ace Drew Rasmussen available to pitch on full rest after starting him in Game 1. The result was a classic pitcher's duel against Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, with both pitchers putting up goose eggs ... until Tampa Bay broke through in the eighth for a 3-0 win.
The stage was set for a classic pitching matchup, with Rasmussen and Misiorowski fully rested − and with fresh bullpens behind them thanks to a blowout Brewers win in Game 4.
For seven innings, the bullpens remained quiet as the two aces carved up hitters with ease.
The Rays got two runners on base in the first, but Jonny DeLuca was no match for the Miz and grounded out.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen was super-sharp. He pitched around an error and a stolen base in the Milwaukee fourth when the Rays retired lead runner Jackson Chourio at third base on a poor bunt by Brice Turang.
The Brewers didn't get a hit off the Rays right-hander until the sixth inning, when Sal Frelick roped a one-out single to right field. But he was cut down by Fortes trying to steal second. Rasmussen got out of a jam later in the inning after David Hamilton singled, stole second and went to third on catcher Nick Fortes' throwing error. Chourio grounded out to end the threat.
The Rays finally cracked the ice in the eighth against lefty reliever Aaron Ashby, who had just entered the game for Misiorowski. Second baseman Nick Madrigal led off with a single and moved to second on a sacrifice bunt by Taylor Walls. After Yandy Diaz walked, Jonathan Aranda grouned a left-on-left single to right, but Madrigal was cut down at the plate on a perfect throw from Sal Frelick for the second out.
With runners on the corners, pinch-hitter Ryan Vilade plated the game's first run with a clean single to center. And Junior Caminero provided the exclamation point with a two-run double for a 3-0 lead.
The Rays wouldn't even need closer Bryan Baker to finish things out. Rasmussen remained in the game for the ninth inning to retire the Brewers in order and complete the shutout.
There's not much the Rays can do about that, except maybe sit first baseman Jonathan Aranda or left fielder Chandler Simpson. In Sim Series Game 5, both of those lefty hitters started with the only lineup change from Game 1 being Ben Williamson starting at second base over switch-hitter Richie Palacios.
In real life, the Rays still need to win three in a row, so there isn't much difference in Rasmussen pitching Game 5 or Game 6. But after they used Game 1 starter Nick Martinez in relief and will likely need to go to a bullpen game, they might be wishing they had their ace on the mound − and an extra day of rest to refresh the bullpen.
Also in the sixth, Sal Frelick was cut down trying to steal second with one out.
Rays catcher Nick Fortes was almost exactly average in throwing out runners during the regular season with 15 outs in 75 attempts (20%). The Brewers' William Contreras was much better, going 15-for-54 (28%). Dynasty League Baseball accounts for the proficiency of each catcher in throwing runners out. Fortes has a zero arm rating (average), while Contreras is a -2, which is above average. (The ratings range from +4 to -4.)
Through the first five games of the Sim Series, the Rays have not attempted a stolen base on Contreras, while the Brewers are 6-for-9 on their attempts vs. Fortes.