Cap advocates want a $245.3 million ceiling, but Scott Boras sees a problem with that approach. The agent for star left-hander Tarik Skubal pointed to the New York Yankees, who carried a $342.8 million payroll before being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS, as an example of why spending does not guarantee postseason success.

In an interview with Baseball Is Dead, agent Scott Boras said, “In the NBA, that’s pretty much true. When you have better teams with better records, you’re going to win in the playoffs almost 80% of the time.” Boras turned to MLB’s October odds and said, “But in baseball, it’s about 58% to 60% of the time. They say the playoffs are a crapshoot.”

Boras cited the 58-60% win rate to argue that payroll alone does not guarantee playoff success. He was responding to owners who want a $245.3 million cap and a $171.2 million floor for 2027.

The NBA model already incurs costs, as Jaylen Brown, a Boston Celtics star, joined the Philadelphia 76ers in July, in part due to salary cap constraints.

The crapshoot label has a structural basis. Since a game has only 27 outs, a dominant pitching outing, a bad bounce, or a cold streak at the plate can topple a team that won 100 games. Still, eight of the last 10 champions ranked top 10 in CBT payroll.

From there, Boras shifted to the Yankees. In that same Baseball Is Dead interview, he said, “Well, the Yankees have been in the playoffs 17 years in a row and haven’t won.”

The 17-year streak is not literal, as the Yankees sat out October in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2023. Their title drought dating to 2009 is real, though, and the Rays swept a $342.8 million roster in this year’s ALDS.

Boras then closed his remarks on Baseball Is Dead by rejecting a cap outright, saying, “Our current system allows all of that to happen, and we’re not going to see that happen in cap systems.”

The World Series backs his timing. The Brewers beat the Rays in five games with a combined opening payroll of $241.8 million, while the Los Angeles Dodgers, at a league-high $433.1 million, were eliminated before the Fall Classic.

Owners, led by commissioner Rob Manfred, read the same numbers differently. Nine clubs cleared the $244 million tax line in 2026, the Dodgers owed $183 million in tax, and the Miami Marlins sat at just $84 million.

Process, not payroll, is the counterargument. According to MLB Network, the Rays list 80 scouting staffers and the Brewers 64, two of baseball’s largest departments, and both rank among the top seven in analytics staffing.

Contracts are another point of contention. Owners want individual deals capped at 15% of a team’s payroll and free-agent contracts limited to five or six years. Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million Dodgers deal, with 97% of the money deferred, is a prime example of the contract structures they want to restrict.

Time is running short. The CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1. The 2022 lockout delayed Opening Day by only a week, but the 1994 strike lasted 232 days, erased 948 games, and cost baseball its World Series.

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