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Celtic’s European problems are not just about fine margins, poor luck or one bad defensive moment. The numbers point to something much bigger.
Across eight of their biggest games this season, Celtic have conceded 170 shots. That works out at more than 21 per match.
LASK had 20 at Celtic Park and 40 in Austria. Rangers had 13 at Ibrox and 15 at Celtic Park. Ferencvaros had 14, Benfica had 26, Hearts still managed 20 despite losing 7-1, and Celta Vigo had 22 on Thursday night.
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For a team trying to control games, that is nowhere near sustainable.
The Celta Vigo defeat was the latest example. Celtic got themselves in front through Mika Baur, had a chance to make it 2-0 through Liam Scales, then allowed the match to drift back towards their own box.
Javi Rodriguez’s winner came from outside the area after Celtic failed to clear properly. That has become a familiar issue. Too many second balls are landing in areas where a Celtic midfielder should be protecting the back line.
That brings the summer window back into focus.
Celtic wanted a ball-winning midfielder, but the deal they tried to do did not happen.
After Celtic failed to reach the Champions League, the move for Gvidas Gineitis was scrapped in favour of Oliver Sorensen, who had been identified as an alternative loan option once the original deal became unworkable.
Sorensen arrived, but he has not started life at Celtic strongly. He has also been used further forward at times, which only adds to the question of whether Celtic ever properly replaced the physical, defensive presence they were trying to sign.
Callum McGregor is still being asked to do too much control work. Mika Baur and Benjamin Nygren can offer energy and output, but Celtic still look exposed when the first press is beaten.
It is not just that Celtic are conceding goals. It is that opponents are getting too many chances to take them.
O’Neill and Shaun Maloney have both spoken about the need to improve without the ball. The evidence keeps showing up against stronger opposition.
Until Celtic fix the protection in front of the defence, the same pattern will keep appearing: pressure builds, clearances drop loose, and opponents get another chance to punish them.