Arguably the best pitcher in baseball is up for grabs this winter. Tarik Skubal is a free agent for the 2026-27 MLB offseason, easily the top available on the market, and every team should be trying to earn his services. But will they? Almost certainly not.

The 29-year-old southpaw spent the first six years of his major-league career with the Detroit Tigers before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the 2026 deadline. He won back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2024 and 2025 and earned MVP votes in both seasons. He's likely to become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history both in total value and AAV.

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Mike Axisa

Of course, the giant flashing sign floating above all of this is the expiring CBA, which will run out at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1, after which the owners are expected to lock out the players until a new deal is reached. Over the summer, the league proposed limiting free agency contracts, an offer that the players' union quickly disavowed, and the owners' demand for a salary cap is the underlying throughline of every negotiation. Perhaps that means Skubal will rush to sign on the dotted line before new rules are in place. Perhaps that means teams will wait out the negotiations until they know how much they have to spend -- and how they'll be punished if they do so.

Regardless, CBS Sports' MLB experts, three people who are very much not involved in contract negotiations, have gathered to predict where Skubal lands by the time Opening Day rolls around.

Mike Axisa: I'll go off the board a bit and say the Padres. The new ownership group didn't pay $3.9 billion for the franchise only to cheap out in their first offseason. They're moneyed and motivated, and that's usually enough to land the top free agents. It should appeal to Skubal too. The Padres are in the postseason most years, they play in a great (and largely pitcher-friendly) ballpark, and it's San Diego. How can you not love San Diego? Skubal to the Padres because the new owners want to make a big splash in their first offseason. That's my prediction.

Dayn Perry: I'll say the Mets top all offers by a margin sufficient to overcome their lack of appeal compared to the usual suspects (meaning, mostly, the Dodgers). They definitely need a stabilizing force in the rotation outside of Nolan McLean, and they also need a vibes shift after the deeply disappointing 2026 campaign. Landing the biggest fish of all on the market would provide all that and meet a clear need. The Mets will already be rebound candidates in 2027, and signing the likes of Skubal would position them as contenders. Obviously, the structure of the next CBA has bearing here, but maybe this all comes together before the lockout shuts it all down for an indeterminate period of time. 

Matt Snyder: I'll go with the easy and obvious answer and say the Dodgers. I don't think the owners win the fight for a salary cap, but there'll be enough push from the Dodgers' end before the CBA talks shut down free agency to snatch up all the talent they can to get his contract grandfathered before a new agreement.