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In the Week 7 edition of "Thursday Night Football," the Chicago Bears play host to the New England Patriots.
Chicago is coming off a win in Caleb Williams' return to the lineup, having held on for a 31-23 victory in a game that moved the Bears to 4-2 on the season. The Bears bounced back from their dispiriting loss to the division rival Green Bay Packers the week before, when the offense looked like a disaster with backup Tyson Bagent under center. Chicago will look to keep the good times rolling here.
New England also won what — on the surface — looked like a close game against the New York Jets, but finished with a seven-point margin of victory thanks only to a late field goal. The Patriots have won three consecutive games after starting the season 1-2, and their quarterback has found a groove after looking nearly broken to start the year. The Pats, too, are looking to keep the train on the tracks on Thursday night.
Will the Bears capture another win, or will the Patriots continue their hot streak? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Drake Maye has found himself over the last three weeks, completing 66 of 103 passes for 878 yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception after going just 51-of-80 for 585 yards, one touchdown, and six picks through the first three games of the season. Maye has rediscovered the deep ball, in particular, going 12-of-20 for 350 yards and four scores on throws beyond 15 yards in the last three games, per Tru Media. Before that, he was just 9-of-20 for 281 yards and four interceptions on those throws.
Maye finished with a strong game against the Jets despite A.J. Brown looking horrifyingly bad in his return from an ankle injury. Brown dropped (at least) three passes and turned his 10 targets into only 27 yards. Maye also lost Romeo Doubs to a shoulder injury on an early-game touchdown pass, so he was working with a limited receiving corps behind Brown. Still, he threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns without turning the ball over.
Brown will presumably be better here, and Chicago hasn't been great against outside receivers, but last week's return of Kyler Gordon could lead to slot man Demario Douglas having a tougher go of things than he has over the last few weeks. Kyle Williams could get in on the action with Doubs sidelined, though Efton Chism has been getting more snaps because the Patriots trust him as a blocker.
Chicago checks in a surprising eighth in opponents' EPA per dropback so far this season, per Tru Media, thanks to a high sack rate and a few timely interceptions. Opponents have averaged 8.4 yards per attempt against the Bears, though, indicating that you can indeed move the ball through the air if you can get a pass off and avoid a turnover.
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has generated pressure at an above-average rate (39.7% of dropbacks) despite working with a somewhat limited group up front, and the Patriots will be without two starting guards here. So, the running backs (particularly Rhamondre Stevenson) will have to be on their game in pass protection on Thursday night.
The Patriots have struggled to run the ball thus far this season, with Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Corey Kiner combining for an average of just 3.9 yards per carry on 151 rushing attempts. Stevenson leads the way in the backfield largely because the Patriots trust him the most in short yardage and pass protection, but he hasn't been efficient or explosive. Henderson had an explosive rushing touchdown on his first run of the season but has failed to record one since.
Kiner was a little-used third-stringer until he salted away the game against the Jets last Sunday. He could perhaps work his way into more touches after a nice showing in that game, given the rushing struggles of the two leads and the fact that Henderson also fumbled against New York.
The Bears have allowed opponents 4.4 yards per carry on running-back rushes so far this season, with much of the success coming by way of yards before contact. It may be difficult for the Patriots to generate those types of yards with their injury issues along the offensive line, and their backs haven't exactly done the best job of breaking tackles this year, so the challenge of moving the offense down the field will likely fall squarely on Maye's right shoulder.
Caleb Williams returned last week from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury and looked no worse for wear. Williams completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown. The Bears kept things simple for him with a 3.9-yard average depth of throw (eighth-lowest for any quarterback in a single game this season), per Tru Media, and he was extremely efficient as a result.
Williams has only played in three games so far this year, but he's leading the league with a 72.5% completion rate and is up to a career-best 7.8 yards per attempt. And that's despite a truly awful game against the Vikings in Week 2, where he went 15-of-26 for just 138 yards and an interception. In his first couple of appearances, it seemed like journeyman wideout Kalif Raymond (14 targets in Weeks 1 and 2) was his primary option, but on Sunday, it was Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland — the most expected options — leading the way with eight and seven targets, respectively. Rome Odunze saw five looks.
Given the way they're each deployed, it seems likely that Odunze will see a bunch of Christian Gonzalez's coverage on Thursday night — especially with Carlton Davis III ruled out. Odunze is the biggest of the trio and plays most often on the perimeter, and he also tends to run the most routes. If that's the way things go, we should expect the passing game to flow through Burden and Loveland yet again.
The Patriots have allowed opponents to complete 31 of 46 passes for 301 yards on throws to the slot this season, per Tru Media. Burden could have a nice night working inside if he's on the field more often than he was last week (eight targets on only 18 routes), though Marcus Jones does have an interception this season and is allowing only 1.46 yards per coverage snap in the slot, per Pro Football Focus.
By contrast, New England has allowed only 29 catches for 279 yards to tight ends to date, so Loveland may not find the coverage as friendly. The Bears would do well to line him up all over the formation rather than solely in line, and perhaps use multi-tight end sets where he plays more of a receiver role, and Cole Kmet or Sam Roush handles the blocking aspects of the position.
The Bears also tried against Atlanta to do what they do best: run the ball with volume. D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (the latter filling in for the injured Kyle Monangai) combined for 29 carries. They ran for only 96 yards on those totes, but they did find the end zone three times.
Chicago's offensive line actually created some nice push, generating 1.45 yards before contact per carry, according to Tru Media, but the backs slumped to only 1.83 yards after contact, as they combined for only four broken tackles. (For context, consider that the Seahawks' running backs combined for 10 in their awful game against the Broncos on Thursday night.)
The Pats have allowed only 3.9 yards per rush this season, thanks in part to yielding an average of only 0.75 yards before contact. Swift and Johnson (Monangai is out again) will have to do a better job of breaking tackles this time around if they want to generate yardage and create favorable down-and-distance scenarios for Williams and the passing game.
I see this being a high-scoring game, what with two offenses that can pile up points quickly. Chicago's offense in two non-rain/non-Brian Flores games with Caleb Williams under center has been electric, particularly on the ground, and Caleb Williams opens things up for the passing game. New England is struggling to run the ball, but Drake Maye has been on fire as of late. I'll lean toward the Bears here because of the Patriots' injury issues along the offensive line, which could hold the run game back further and put even more on Maye's shoulders.
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