The trade grades industrial complex will never be kind to a team giving up premium future assets to increase their shot at a championship. This was stress tested again when the Chicago Bears traded for All-Pro Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in a Thursday afternoon NFL blockbuster.

The Athletic gave the Bears a D+ for the trade while the Titans earned an A. ESPN saw it similarly, giving the Bears a C and the Titans an A. Just about the only positive grade for Chicago came from my colleague James Dator here at SB Nation, who gave the Bears a B while Tennessee, again, earned an A.

The incentive for the Titans is obvious. Tennessee is going nowhere, so landing two first-round picks plus a fourth rounder for a 29-year-old defensive tackle and a 2028 fifth-round pick is great business. For the trade to be worth it for the Bears, they probably have to win the Super Bowl, and that means the margin for error to ‘win’ the trade is razor thin.

As a member of the trade grades industrial complex myself, though, I’ve always believed that maximizing a chance at a championship is the single most important thing any team can do. It’s part of the reason why I was far more bullish on the New York Knicks trading for Karl-Anthony Towns than many of my colleagues. Of course, it also came back to bite me in horrible fashion on the Milwaukee Bucks’ Damian Lillard trade, which just never worked as well as I thought it could.

At some point, not doing the all-in trade is just as risky as doing it. There’s an opportunity cost on both sides, and the best GMs have to assess each outcome, make their decision, and pray for good luck. Trading two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner has been an abject disaster for the Indianapolis Colts. There are many who will tell you that trading two firsts for Khalil Mack back in 2018 was a bust for the Bears, because they never won the Super Bowl.

I’ll admit I was initially struck by sticker shock when the details of the trade were announced. After ruminating on it for a couple years, though, I’m fully on board. The Bears are uniquely situated to make this type of trade right now, and letting this moment pass without a splash move to improve the defense would have presented an equally treacherous what if on the opposite side of the coin.

The interior pass rusher may have surpassed the elite EDGE rusher for the most valuable player on a defense. The last few Super Bowl winners have had elite interior pass rushers. The Bears didn’t have that player before this trade, and they just landed arguably the best in the league at it now.

Basically, quarterbacks have gotten so good out of structure that EDGEs aren’t having the success they used to. Defensive tackles who can collapse the pocket quickly are having a bigger impact on advanced metrics, which is also why guards are suddenly getting paid money that used to be reserved for offensive tackles. An elite defensive tackle also opens up stunt and blitz opportunities for safeties and middle backers, which should have Bears DC Dennis Allen licking his chops.

What makes Simmons great is he’s elite as a pass rusher and a run stopper. How many defensive linemen can truly say that? Find a stat, any stat, and Simmons has been dominant in it.

‘Force multiplier’ is a buzzword that gets thrown around a lot in the NFL, but it was created for players like Simmons. His presence will make life easier for everyone on a defense that’s been overachieving so far this year.

Montez Sweat was never supposed to be the best defensive lineman on a Super Bowl contender. Now he doesn’t have to be. Grady Jarrett, at age-33, looks a lot better as a DT2 than a DT1 at this point in his career. Simmons’ ability to occupy multiple blockers and still finish plays should open things up for Austin Booker off the edge and Kyler Gordon coming on a blitz. It also means the Bears’ secondary — which has been pretty brutal in recent weeks — won’t have to cover as long or as well. Chicago’s linebackers should be a lot more effective stepping up to stop the run with Simmons drawing so much offensive attention.

The Bears probably still need to trade for a cornerback, but Simmons is the rare player who makes guys at every level of the defense better, and that’s why the price tag was so high on him.

Part of the risk in big swings like this is it usually means the player you just traded for now has all the leverage in contract negotiations. That’s not the case with Simmons. He’s already been paid on a deal that locks him up through 2030. The Titans also already paid out his bonus, so the Bears have even more flexibility the rest of this season.

The Bears essentially got a major discount on the contract because of the bonus element and how it’s structured. There should be room for the Bears to land another high-impact player at a sky-high average annual salary next year, when they can move off of players like Sweat, Jarrett, TJ Edwards, and Jaylon Johnson to create more cap flexibility.

The asset cost remains sky-high, but the Bears should have Simmons on a team-friendly cap number as long as he keeps playing at a high level and doesn’t demand a new deal.

Daryl Morey once argued that if a team has a 5% chance at a championship, they have to go all-in. Morey never won a championship as an NBA general manager, but his thought process still makes sense. Given that there’s even more variance in football, there’s extra incentive to get aggressive.

This trade took the Bears from No. 8 to No. 6 in the Super Bowl odds, according to ESPN. They are currently priced at +1100 to win it all, which equates to about 8.33%. It’s possible that the market is still underrating them. The Los Angeles Rams are still ahead of the Bears mostly because of their preseason hype, but they sure haven’t looked like a juggernaut so far. The Seahawks and 49ers are the only two other NFC teams ahead of Chicago, and sure, I can see it. The 49ers were my preseason Super Bowl pick, and I’m still feeling pretty good about that one.

The talent gap between Chicago and Seattle + San Francisco is much smaller today than it was yesterday. Just listen to Quenton Nelson, perhaps the best guard of his generation, get deflated just thinking about playing Simmons again.

The real reason the Bears can make this type of trade is because they are uniquely positioned with a quarterback and head coach who are good enough to win a Super Bowl right now.

Caleb Williams is still on a rookie contract for this season and next, and will then have a fifth-year option that will still count as a huge discount. He’s already a top-5 QB in the league in my eyes, and he’s ready to win deep into the playoffs right now at age-25. Williams will probably sign the biggest contract in the history of the sport that will kick in his sixth season, so this is the time to make it happen. He’s not the only one on a rookie deal, with top weapons Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze on a similar timeline.

And then there’s Ben Johnson, a man I’m on record saying I wouldn’t trade for Josh Allen and three first-round picks. When the Colts traded two firsts for Sauce Gardner, they were counting on Daniel “Dimes” Jones and Shane Steichen to deliver them to salvation. When the Bears traded two firsts for Mack, they needed Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy to hold up their end of the bargain.

Landing Ben and Caleb has made me realize how delusional I always was for believing in whoever they had at head coach and QB before this. It’s kind of crazy to think the Mack trade still could have worked if it wasn’t for the double-doink. That defense was damn good for at least three years following that trade, so if Simmons can take the Bears anywhere close to that level, having Ben and Caleb on the other side of the football will take care of the rest.

My long-standing take on the Bears is that they’re the only Chicago team that actually tries to win, but they’re usually too stupid to pull it off. Hiring Johnson changed the second half of that equation, and getting Williams on his rookie deal made the risk attached to this move a two-way street.

I turn 40 next year, and I’ve never seen the Bears win the Super Bowl. I feel like it’s never going to happen if they can’t get it done with this QB-coach combo. There’s never been a better time to push your chips in. Trading for Simmons is certainly risky on draft capital alone, but it’s worth it for the chance to win it all.