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If you’re a Premier League manager in the midst of a tough start, Halloween can be a scary time. In the last decade, the date of the first managerial sacking by a club that finished the previous season in the top half reads as follows: February 23, October 23, December 18, November 19, January 25, November 1, September 7, no sackings, October 28 and September 8. If you take out the trigger-happy behaviour of Todd Boehly and Evangelos Marinakis, late October is the earliest an owner tends to act - even Ole Gunnar Solskjaer earned himself three more weeks with an October 30 win at Tottenham back in 2021.
Michael Carrick might have expected to already be out of a job by now. His Manchester United side have just one win from eight league games, are already out of the Carabao Cup and suffered a 4-1 humiliation at the hands of Champions League newcomers Como. Last season’s third-place finish could be the thing that has protected him for now - the club’s ownership have given the 45-year-old a stay of execution, though it remains to be seen whether that will last beyond Saturday’s game against Chelsea. It’s a situation one of his predecessors at Old Trafford knows all too well, with Jose Mourinho similarly up against it in 2015 when in charge of United’s upcoming opponents.
Mourinho was riding the high of an achievement even more impressive than that of Carrick. His Chelsea side had won the title in 2014/15, going 16 games unbeaten from mid-January to mid-May. However, he quickly learned how quickly things can go south.
A return of 11 points from 10 matches left the London side 15th in the table ahead of a meeting with Liverpool and their recently-appointed boss Jurgen Klopp on October 31. Going into the match, some might have wondered whether Mourinho could sustain another defeat on Halloween.
Klopp warned his players to expect a wounded animal, and, sure enough, Ramires blasted the Blues into an early lead. Liverpool responded, though, with a Philippe Coutinho brace followed by a late clincher from substitute Christian Benteke.
It was no surprise to hear ‘Sacked in the morning’ chants ring out from the away end, but Mourinho clung on for a few more weeks. Carrick may well take note and recognise that even a noted improvement on Saturday might only delay the inevitable.
"The fans are not stupid, I don't need to tell them anything,” Mourinho said after the defeat. “They know how much myself and the players are trying.
"They know why they are getting bad results. The fight goes on, but sometimes there are fights very impossible to win. You go to a fight with different ammunition. I can play against any team or manager."
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Klopp compared Mourinho’s situation to his own final season at Borussia Dortmund, where a nightmare start left them in or around the relegation spots until February. "I feel for him. He's a great coach. I don't think anyone in this room doubts he's one of the best in the world,” the German said.
Mourinho’s struggles laid bare the fact that, whatever came before, you start afresh every season. It set off a pattern, too, with the 2015/16 and 2016/17 Premier League title-winning managers also departing in short order.
The Portuguese manager got less time than Claudio Ranieri or Antonio Conte in the following years. He took charge of just five more league games, picking up four points, and was dismissed after defeat at Leicester left the Blues down in 16th.
It’s hard to picture Carrick giving the same kind of embattled post-match statement if United lose on Saturday, simply because he hasn’t shown that to be his style. All he has done so far is show himself to be a good-time manager and, in fairness, that’s exactly what United needed last season and exactly what Middlesbrough needed when he was appointed at the Riverside Stadium in 2022.
The warning from Mourinho, however, is a more pointed one. If you’re clinging on to your job when Halloween rolls around, then it’s probably a case of when - not if - your time runs out.
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