It’s silly to even talk about the MVP race until the mid-season point. There have been plenty of September MVPs that crashed and burned - hello 2025 Baker Mayfield. Once trick-or-treating gets done, though, and the calendar turns to November, then you can have logical conversations about who has been the top player in the sport thus far. The best races are ones that don’t have a clear and obvious winner - that’s why I don’t watch the NASCAR Cup. Series when they go to road courses. It’s great that Shane Van Gisbergen is really good at Sonoma, but I’ll spend that summer Sunday doing anything else but watch him beat every other car by 23 seconds.

The 2026 season has been more of a restricter plate race. Every driver needing a dance partner to keep pace with the pack to avoid being left behind while trying to avoid being swept up in the inevitable crash that wipes out half the field. Several quarterbacks have stacked high-quality performances to help separate themselves from the middle of the pack, and it’s a healthy mixture of long-standing watch guards and young gun slingers making a case for themselves as the potential new faces of the league.

As we come around turn two of the season, Joe Burrow would be the man many would have in pole position for MVP. His 23 passing touchdowns lead the NFL, as does his total EPA of 69.04, per Sumer Sports. Over his last two games, the former No. 1 overall pick has 10 total touchdowns (8 passing, 2 rushing) and his Bengals sit at 6-2, with their next game being a matchup with their fellow 6-2 AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with first place in the division on the line. In pure dropback situations, he’s practically lapping the rest of the field, posting a total EPA that is nearly 15 points higher than the next quarterback behind him.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is another popular name driving side-by-side with Burrow. He has the second-best odds to win the award at +300, per FanDuel Sportsbook, trailing only Burrow, who sits at +200. The 2024 MVP currently sits with 21 total touchdowns (12 passing, 9 rushing) and his nine rushing scores are six more than the next quarterback, while also leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He is currently third in total EPA, and his EPA per pass ranks fifth in the league while the Bills lead the NFL in points per game and yards per game.

Behind the two blue bloods, though, come a pair of younger vets who have made their way through the pack toward the front of the race. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence finished fifth in MVP voting a season ago, and he has picked up right where he left off in 2025. He has been the catalyst of the Jaguars’ offense that currently ranks fourth in points per game. He is fourth in the league in total EPA, and his 18 touchdowns rank fourth in the league while only throwing four interceptions.

As they go three-wide, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love sling shots his way past a swarm of cars and into the top four with three games of 350+ passing yards. Love is coming off arguably the best quarterback performance of the year against the New England Patriots, completing just under 80 percent of his passes for 372 yards and three touchdowns while posting a QBR of 98.

The deep ball is what sets Love apart from the rest of the pack. His 22 impact plays on passes 20+ yards downfield are the most in the NFL, as are his 842 passing yards - over 100 more than the next quarterback.

Those four guys are the ones that would be finalists for MVP if the season ended today, but there are multiple others lurking. How about Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud? Yes, his Texans are 3-5, but he has played as close to flawless football as one can. He is currently fifth in the NFL in total EPA while throwing 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. And Stroud isn’t doing this by playing it safe. His 32 impact plays are the second-most in the NFL, and he has the fourth-highest aDOT among all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Should he lead the Texans to the playoffs after an 0-4 start, he would rightfully get MVP consideration.

If you had to make me pick one for MVP today, my vote would go to Love. He leads all quarterbacks in impact plays with 40, which is eight more than Stroud in second place, and he is doing it with absolutely run game that ranks 31st in EPA per rush. Love is a throwback in every sense of the word. In an NFL where several offenses try to kill you via 1,000 cuts, Love and the Packers simply launch a spear through your chest.

The race is only half over. And like in auto racing, where you are at the halfway point matters very little. But these aforementioned signal-callers have put themselves in prime position to take the title of the NFL’s Most Valuable Player when the checkers are blowing in the wind.

That was the cold open - this is the Hot Read.

Too many general managers live life like Peter Griffin choosing the mystery box.

“A great player is a great player, but a draft pick could be anything. It could even be a great player!”

If you’re a great team contending for a championship, to hell with draft picks. And that is exactly the mentality that was put on display by the Jacksonville Jaguars and their general manager, James Gladstone.

You’d be forgiven if at first sight you thought the 36 year-old was a former child actor who played the bully in a Christmas movie, but Gladstone has taken the all-in strategies learned from Les Snead from Los Angeles all the way to Duval County. After beginning the season 6-2 and holding a comfortable lead in the AFC South, Gladstone sent a first round pick, two second round picks, a fifth-round pick, and a sixth-round pick away in respective trades for defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, former All-Pro safety Jessie Bates, and rising star defensive tackle Jordan Davis. And it’s not as if the Jaguars have been a bad defense - quite the opposite, actually. They currently rank second in defensive EPA per play and are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the league.

This is what great executives do - make an already great unit even greater while chasing a Super Bowl. And frankly speaking, this is what every Super Bowl contender, or hopeful contenders, should do. Far too much value is placed on draft picks when 90 percent of them don’t turn out to be star players. Take the Buffalo Bills, for example. Why are they holding onto draft picks? You have Josh Allen and continue to suffer heartbreaking playoff defeats that you can set your watch to - trade your first round pick for a player who can help you win a Super Bowl. And don’t try to talk to me about “cap space.” The Jaguars had less cap space than the Bills before they made all three trades. There are always ways to manipulate the cap if you truly want to.

Trade for the players you know can help you win now rather than get heart eyes for the 26th pick in the televised crap shoot known as the NFL Draft who may or may not be any good. It’s refreshing to see teams like the Rams and Jaguars use that approach rather than hoard a bunch of quote unquote “assets,” most of which, statistically, won’t pan out to much anyway. F—k them picks forever. Get good players.

The NFC South is laughable, as per, but the NFC East isn’t far behind. The New York Giants currently lead the division at 5-2-1, and no one is convinced that team is a real threat to anyone. Defensively, they’ve been solid, and it looks as if Arvell Reese has an open runway to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. But look at who they’ve played. Joe Milton, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward. They did a solid job of keeping the Texans to just 21 points, but they would have an additional loss if not for the borderline impressive incompetence put on display by the Washington Commanders, and they allowed Tyler Shough and the Saints to drop 34 on their heads at home. Offensively, they rank 24th in success rate, and neither their passing or rushing success rate is in the top 20. Can they win the division? Yes, but they are nowhere near a real contender.

The team that many thought would be a real contender (myself included) in Dallas has been woeful. Their defense finds new ways to look disoriented each week, and they are coming off a game in which they barely squeaked by the tanking Colts while having 14 penalties. They can put up points, but if they don’t score 30, they aren’t winning. As a matter of fact, Week 9 marked their first win of the year where they scored less than 30 points.

The Eagles have professionally quit on this season, trading away Jordan Davis and resorting to starting No. 3 quarterback Joe Milton after Jalen Hurts’ season was ended due to blood clots. The Commanders haven’t quit on the season, but they may as well, considering how little talent they have on offense while sitting at 2-5-1.

I’d still bet on the Cowboys finding a way to outscore their problems and win the division, but they need to find some semblance of a defense if they want that to be the case. With games against the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, and Jaguars still on the schedule, they need to find a way to split those at worst while winning every other game to get to 10-7.

The Chiefs defeated the Jets 35-12 in Week 9 to end a two-game losing streak, but there are still clear issues with this team, and most of those issues lie at the feet of head coach Andy Reid.

For starters, the usage and deployment of the Chiefs’ receivers has been a disaster. There have been 145 receivers to run at least 50 routes so far this season - Andrew Armstrong currently ranks 141st in yards per route run. Jalen Royals ranks 130th. Cyrus Allen is 84th. Which isn’t tremendous, but is far better than whatever Armstrong and Royals are doing, yet both getting considerably more snaps than Allen.

Additionally, the Chiefs being the only team who can’t successfully run a QB sneak while Reid gaslights the media when explaining why they can’t is impossible to defend. As is trotting out Harrison Butker, who has missed nearly two dozen kicks over the past two seasons an missed yet another one on Sunday.

None of this takes away Reid’s three Super Bowl rings or changes the fact that he’ll walk into the Hall of Fame. The game passes everyone by, though, and it’s clear that he is being left behind. The Chiefs will remain in the mix because they are the Chiefs and they have Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, a good offensive line, and a good defense, but as a franchise, they need to have conversations about life after Andy.

One play can be the difference between being 6-3 and 5-4. For the Cleveland Browns, that was exactly their fate on Sunday. After a terrific catch-and-run for a touchdown by Harold Fannin in overtime, the Browns decided to go for the win, as there were less than two minutes to play in the extra period. Shedeur Sanders rolled to his right and fired a pass to Denzel Boston that was incomplete, sealing a 23-22 win for the New Orleans Saints, who themselves saw their record go to 3-5 and a tie for the division lead rather than falling to 2-6.

Houston is 3-5, but their offense and defense are both coming to life in unison. With games against the Browns, Colts, and Lamar Jackson-less Ravens on the docket, they should be 6-5 by the time a crucial Sunday night game in Pittsburgh rolls around in Week 13.

After this season, why would he want to stay? And why should the Chargers run this back? With a new regime likely taking over, rip the band-aid completely off and ship Herbert way for two first-round picks.

With Puka Nacua heading to IR, who will the Rams throw to? With their connections to Jacksonville (James Gladstone came from the Rams), will they add Brian Thomas Jr? On top of that, do they maybe even swoop in to steal Josh Downs from the Chiefs and Steelers? They need to do something.

I’ll continue to harp on the fact that I said they’d miss the playoffs in the preseason, and at 5-4, they don’t look like a complete team. Defensively, they are tremendous, but the Bears showed that you can put up points on that unit. Offensively, it’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and… Tory Horton? Cooper Kupp? There just isn’t a lot there.

We’ll have to see if Garrett Wilson is a Chief before the trade deadline later today, but for this week’s prediction, I’ll take a look at the Vikings, who saw Carson Wentz put up a QBR of 2.3 in a 23-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. Before Tuesday is over, they will bring in a new quarterback in the form of Geno Smith, who gets shipped from the Jets for a third-round pick.