LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 11: Malik Nabers #1 of the New York Giants makes a catch for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the game against Mike Sainristil #0 of the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium on October 11, 2026 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

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When the 2026 NFL season kicked off, week 10’s Thursday Night Football game between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants was not seen as one that could dictate the balance of power in the NFC East.

Yet, that’s very much the case as the two teams prepare to square off from MetLife Stadium, with their respective seasons sitting at a crossroads.

Since the two teams played to a 27-27 tie one month ago, the Giants have changed quarterbacks, won two out of three and currently sit two games ahead of the Dallas Cowboys for first place. Washington, on the other hand, is 1-2 over their last three, is quickly fading from the playoff race, and is a week removed from a narrow loss to the Rams where Jayden Daniels was also sacked four times.

While it’s still early, it’s easy to say that the Thursday night game should dictate a lot – both for how the NFC East standings turn out, and where both Washington and New York’s seasons are headed.

What’s at stake for the Giants

Despite losing quarterback Jaxson Dart and linebacker Brian Burns to season-ending injuries in the first three weeks of the season, the Giants have shown themselves to be a resilient bunch in their first year under John Harbaugh.

The team came back against the Philadelphia Eagles in week nine, forced overtime after being down 24 against the New Orleans Saints, and came back to force the tie against the Commanders in October. They’ve outlasted the Cowboys and Texans. And New York doesn’t yet have a loss to another NFC East team (they’re 2-0-1 so far).

A win here would put them at 6-2-1, give them a third straight win, and effectively put the Giants in the driver’s seat for the division the rest of the way. And that lead (which would be two-and-a-half games with a win) could stretch even further if the Cowboys lose to the favored 49ers this weekend.

Winning yet another game with J.J. McCarthy under center (he and running back Cam Skattebo have both been cleared to start) would also cement be a feather in the cap of both Harbaugh and the Giants’ braintrust that its trade for the former first-round pick was a smart case of buying a distressed assets at a low point.

Though McCarthy hasn’t been setting the world on fire with New York, he’s been key to getting the offense back on track, starting with the furious comeback he led against the Saints. The former Michigan QB has thrown for 622 yards in less than three full games, is completing 63% of his throws and has some mobility as well.

He doesn’t necessarily have to replace Dart long-term. But for now, the Giants’ play under him at least keeps the team in the divisional race and provides more building-wide belief in the franchise.

Commanders’ season in the balance

Washington’s 2-5-1 record is far from straightforward – which is perhaps why the season may hinge on Thursday night’s outcome.

After a close loss to the (then fully healthy) Eagles in week one, Daniels was injured in week two, contributing to a loss to the Cowboys. While Marcus Mariota performed admirably in an upset over the Seahawks, he was knocked out of a loss to the Colts. Since Daniels returned in week five against the Giants, the team is 1-2-1, but with two narrow losses to the 49ers and Rams.

Daniels has played well over the last four games, with 791 passing yards and four touchdowns, but he’s still getting hit a considerable amount (sacked 15 times in last four games) and the run game outside of him has provided limited help.

Washington’s defense has been serviceable enough of late, allowing just 20 points per game over the last four contests. But if the offense can’t top that number, as they haven’t in their two most recent losses, those efforts are all for naught.

Lingering near last-place, it’s understandable that the Commanders weren’t as active as some others during this year’s NFL trade deadline. But failing to address offensive needs could mean they continue, and that could lead to head coach Dan Quinn losing his job.

While Quinn was lauded for guiding the Commanders to a 12-5 record in his first year, the team is just 7-17-1 since, which gets further complicated by Daniels’s absence for stretches of that timeframe. Washington owner Josh Harris hasn’t commented on Quinn’s job security, but he is widely speculated as one of the NFL coaches squarely on the “hot seat” if the team fails to turn things around.

The road ahead

Neither the Giants nor the Commanders face an overly difficult schedule the rest of the way, though the Giants’ road is slightly harder (opponents currently have a .513 winning percentage, including Thursday’s matchup with Washington).

While they’re in first place right now, New York follows up the Commanders game with the Jaguars, 49ers and Seahawks in three of the next four. Even with a win on Thursday, a good Giants team could still be staring at a 7-5-1 record in a month. A loss here would potentially doom them to a 6-6-1 record that drags them right back to the pack, depending on what the Cowboys and Commanders do.

Washington, meanwhile, rounds into an easier stretch after the Giants game and a home game against the Bengals. The Commanders will visit the Cardinals and Titans, then host the Texans and Falcons over a four-week stretch. Though they appear further back from the Giants right now, a win here could still conceivably set them up to be a similar 6-6-1.

There may not be much optimism about the winner of the NFC East’s chances. once they make the playoffs this year. But for both franchises, just making it may be enough for now. And Thursday goes a long way toward deciding which of them could still vie for that spot.