Bristol Rovers extended their winless run to five games in all competitions with a 2-1 home defeat to Salford City on Tuesday night. Despite a brilliant run of form to end last season, Rovers now find themselves 16th in League Two, with their campaign beginning to show many of the teething problems that plagued Darrell Clarke’s side a year ago.

In both situations, expectations were high going into the season: Clarke guided Rovers into the play-offs before an unexpected drop-off in form – a club record 10 straight defeats – led to a premature winter feeling of ‘what could’ve been’ and ultimately DC’s departure. Steve Evans isn’t in that situation just yet, and you imagine has plenty of credit in the bank after masterminding last season’s recovery, plus the dozen game wins record at home that extended into this season, but needs to find answers.

Rovers will host Swindon Town on Saturday after losing to Salford in midweek, in the next opportunity to turn things around. The Robins seemed the perfect opposition to help change the Gas’ fortunes too, however pulled off a brilliant 3-1 away win against Barnet Town most recently, and now pose a somewhat more threatening proposition in the weekend’s early kick-off.

Before that game, here are some current thoughts and analysis on Rovers’ current situation…

Dynamic Salford Too Good For Rovers In First Half

In what should’ve been a game between the two most fancied sides for promotion, only one actually looked like a side deserving to be at the top of the table. In fact that’s exactly what Salford are, having done a reverse-Rovers in effect: Peter Cklamovski got off to the worst start as manager with three successive losses, but the Ammies are unbeaten in the nine league games since, and have a little cushion of four points on Barnet – though the Bees have two games in hand.

What was most striking about Salford’s performance at The Mem was their dynamic nature. Numerous times throughout the opening exchanges, Kallum Cesay and Luke Molyneux caused havoc on the right, with the former consistently making vertical runs behind Ciaran Kelly and the latter engaging Jack Sparkes with his trickery. The pair gave the Rovers a torrid time of it, so it’s therefore not a surprise that they played big parts in the two goals: Cesay found space in the box before a collision with Shaq Forde allowed Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu to curl into the top corner, while Molyneux dumfounded Sparkes to cross for Daniel Udoh to squeeze in the second – far too easily getting goal side of Kelly in the box.

The Ammies completely dominated throughout the half, with plenty of rotational play and crisp passing leading Evans to admit post-match: “I think there is no doubt a conversation at half-time reflected how we gave them too much respect as players.” In fairness to Rovers, they limited the visitors to just two shots on target despite the seeming domination, and could’ve got one back just after the half hour mark if Forde had put his left footed shot into either corner.

Nonetheless, the early goal after only six minutes certainly dampened the spirits (not the coats – it was actually a fairly dry autumnal evening) of the Gasheads in attendance, who only got their mojo back when a few refereeing decisions perhaps went against them – such as a drag back offence on Alfie Kilgour inside the area. But the mood was set by Salford’s play. You could say the Ammies are what Rovers were a month ago: dynamic.

Back Five, Long Balls, and a Second Half Push

It’s not a bad way of summarising the game in a snappy line. As it always does, the back three/five will draw attention for being picked over what has become standard for Evans this season: 4-2-3-1. That said, the Scot hasn’t picked the 4-2-3-1 in any of the last five matches, as he desperately looks for options to freshen things up and return to winning ways.

One of the key things that made the back three so successful last season, however, was exactly that: it felt like a back three. Across the brilliant run to end the season where Rovers lost just once in the final 14, Yusuf Akhamrich added a winger’s potency on the right, with the baton then passed on to Joel Senior, who had the necessary energy to bomb up and down the flank throughout the 90. Tom James has had a great start to his Gas career, but he doesn’t quite fit the bill in either way, instead getting his two goals courtesy of his technique and typically inverted position.

Akhamrich and Senior in turn gave some much needed breathing room to Sparkes on the opposite flank, who had shouldered the creative burden to that point. In midweek, Sparkes was too easily beaten by Molyneux to put the cross in for Udoh, almost losing his footing as he tried to sort his feet out, before slowly trudging back to the halfway line with his head down. He did make up for it with his first goal since the end of March though, and generally looked quite good in possession, but the match showed the two sides of his game. This season, 100% of his starts have come at wingback (if you count the flexible setup in York).

Wingbacks are arguably the most important part of their system, and although Rovers have a couple of rather good ones, they have to play high and wide and always make themselves available as an outlet. Their positioning encourages the wide centre backs to spread and drive with the ball, rather than sitting on top of their teammates as the shape comes closer to resembling a five. After the first goal went in for Salford, it seemed like a portion of the early energy had been zapped, and the willingness to try to get on the ball and play had gone.

Instead, Rovers opted for a long ball game. Brad Young completed just 10/42 (24%) of his long balls and Kelly 1/11 (9%), while Ellis Harrison won only 6/19 (32%) of his aerial duels. Of course, you can’t expect 100% records across these metrics, but it goes to show why Gasheads were getting frustrated with their side. Rovers had much more joy in the second half when they looked to work the ball down the flanks; admittedly the outcome of many of those attacks were unsuccessful crosses (Kelly completing 1/4 (0%) and Sparkes 1/8 (25%)), but Salford were pinned in after the break and offered little more than on the break.

Cklamovski’s team were, before that, a good showing of what the Gas were like last season though. Molyneux’s trickery combined with his side’s overall movement, grit, and inclination across the pitch are always going to be the ingredients for a successful side, but it means very little unless you utilise it and play on the front foot with confidence. For the talent Rovers had on the pitch, it took until after a presumed half-time rollocking to do that and make the most of their home advantage by bringing the crowd onside. As Evans pointed to after the game: “My experience tells me we play as we played in that second half and we’ll win a lot of games.”

Avoidable Tommy Leigh Absence Continues To Be Costly

You have to feel that the absence of Tommy Leigh is becoming costly. Naturally others need to step up and fill the void, but the 26-year-old was in such good form that it’s possibly easier said than done. After scoring a penalty on the opening day off the bench, Leigh subsequently started the next five in the league, averaging a rating of 7.65 on FotMob before getting sent off in the fifth game in Grimsby. Following four successive wins – three of which came at home – it was the game that brought everything crashing down. Was naming four successive unchanged teams a factor? Maybe.

Leigh was the match winner a week prior against Rotherham United, and the standout performer a few days before that as his assist and workmanlike display helped Rovers on their way to beating Colchester United. All that made his straight dismissal against the Mariners more frustrating, compounding on what had already been another tricky away day. To rub it in further, Leigh then saw red again on his return against Barnet, in the 85th minute. The feeling was that he should have been replaced by that point, clearly fatigued after a period without a game, but the midfielder still should’ve known better.

Jack Aitchison then came in for Leigh in Gillingham, but has since found himself sidelined with injury. Although Rovers have more recently signed Arvin Appiah, Evans struggled to find the balance in attack in the absence of his attacking midfielders, switching to a back three for the win over Exeter City as Forde moved into the 10 – ironically kept out of the role he thrived in at the back end of last season until then. That worked against a somewhat blunt Grecians, though the Gas are now back to being winless, and miss the creativity Leigh brought.

Forde is someone who continues to come in for plenty of criticism, in spite of being a regular starter for Rovers now. Last season Evans revived Forde’s career in BS7, moving him into the central role with Akhamrich or Senior on the right, and reaped the rewards for the confidence shown in the young attacker. Still, Forde can’t do it all alone, and with Leigh out, Bobby Kamwa dealing with a niggle, and Appiah perhaps not ready to start yet, much of the creative burden is placed on his shoulders. Admittedly, Forde should do better with several of the attacking positions he finds himself in, but it’s fair to say the causes for this run of form extends beyond just that.

Leigh will remain out for the next two games and only return in November for the FA Cup home tie against Cambridge United. Until then, Evans must desperately search for the formula to get his side back in the goals, with Kamwa and Appiah sure to come into the side sooner rather than later to ease the pressure on Forde.

Front Foot Approach Needed To Get Gasheads Excited: Swindon Predicted XI

“We need a win for everyone: we need a win for ourselves, the players need a win, players’ families need a win, and more and more importantly the fans need a win – we need to believe again,” said Evans after the midweek defeat. You do get the feeling that Saturday’s clash with Swindon has quite a bit riding on it, and Rovers need to make the most of home advantage to come out on top.

Part of that, as discussed at reasonable length in this piece, is to ensure the Gas play on the front foot. While the back three isn’t necessarily a defensive setup, for the reasons mentioned above, Salford ensured it became a five as Rovers struggled to get out much in the first half hour. Bringing in at least one of Appiah or more likely Kamwa would see a return to 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, and give a much clearer outlet down the flanks. Although he’s only played 103 minutes across three appearances so far, Appiah has looked sharp in his limited play time. A start for him would bring some added technical ability to the side, albeit his best position is up for debate – maybe he would get the most involved from the 10.

In the middle, Clinton Mola was again a top performer against Salford despite the result. His place is under no question, and alongside him Keenan Gough will remain. Evans only has Richie Smallwood and Reiss Russell-Denny as midfield alternatives – unless Ryan de Haviland makes a surprise appearance – but Swindon seems like a game where the pace and physicality of the derby could be a mismatch for the pair. Frustratingly, it is exactly a game you would want Leigh for, able to bring some much needed bite and determination as the third midfielder.

Tom James and Kofi Balmer both remain relative untouchables at the back, and will almost certainly play in front of Brad Young no matter the system. If a back four is used, Ben Purrington probably replaces Sparkes at left back to bring his experience and defensive ability. That leaves only one place for Kilgour and Kelly, and it feels like with Rovers needing a bit of grit at the moment, Kilgour would get the nod in that 50/50.

Up front is a close call once again, but with only one place in this prediction, it goes to Harrison. Cavegn had just 16 touches last time out, and despite Harrison’s penalty miss and duel win rate, the 32-year-old’s physicality remains a much needed presence at the moment with how the Gas are playing. The Welshman’s ability to defend danger in his own box also can’t be underestimated: a crucial skill in an encounter Rovers can’t really afford to fall behind to a set play in.

A more likely setup could be one where Smallwood comes in to skipper the side in place of Forde as Evans looks to set up a tough proposition to break down. The 3-5-2 shape is the one Salford used very successfully in midweek, but the Ammies had the athleticism in the middle of the park to ensure they remained fluid.

Ultimately, Rovers must put their best foot forward and play their way; that may well be continuing with the shape that worked well for the second 45, but whether it is or not, Evans must ensure his side play football that gets the supporters excited. The backing of the Gasheads will be a vital factor for success against Swindon.