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Week 9 of the college football season is here, and we once again have a shakeup in the latest AP Poll, with No. 2 BYU losing to UCF and No. 8 Texas Tech losing to Cincinnati.
As I do every week, I'm going to give you my pick to win every game involving a team currently ranked in the top 25 of this week's AP Poll. We don't care about point spreads in this piece; we only care about picking winners.
Pick: Notre Dame -6500
Wisconsin has to be able to run the ball to be an effective offense. Unfortunately, Iowa has one of the best run defenses in the nation, ranking second in opponent EPA per rush and seventh in opponent rush success rate. Not being able to run the ball means the Hawkeyes are going to have an advantage in this game. The Wisconsin defense is good, but they're a full step below the Hawkeyes' defense.
I'll bet Iowa as a home favorite in this one.
Pick: Iowa -170
Texas Tech showed its true colors against Cincinnati last week. The Red Raiders simply aren't as good a team as the betting market says they are. Arizona ranks right next to them in adjusted net EPA per play at 27th compared to 25th, but the Wildcats outrank them significantly in net success rate, ranking 14th in the country compared to Texas Tech at 32nd.
Texas Tech's offense is average at best, ranking outside the top 50 in almost every metric. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have one of the best passing attacks in the country, ranking fourth in EPA per pass. The wrong team is favored in this game.
Pick: Arizona +140
Pick: SMU -360
Pick: Ole Miss -535
In arguably the biggest ranked vs. ranked game of the week, Florida is going to be let down by its defense. The Gators' offense can overwhelm inferior teams, but when they play elite teams like Georgia, their defense loses them the game. The Florida defense ranks 125th in the country in opponent success rate, making it one of the worst defenses in college football.
The Bulldogs should be able to cruise to a win on Saturday.
Pick: Georgia -440
Pick: BYU -750
Pick: Indiana -1450
Northwestern continues to be underrated, and the odds for this game should be much closer than they are. The one weakness the Wildcats have is that teams have been able to run the ball on them effectively. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they're one of the worst running offenses in the country, ranking 117th in EPA per rush and 114th in rush success rate. I'm all in on the Wildcats to win this game.
Pick: Northwestern +140
Pick: Utah -258
Pick: Wake Forest -520
Pick: UCLA -1800
Pick: Iowa State +270
Ohio State will be playing in its first game with Luke Fahey at quarterback, but I think they can overcome that fact and beat a USC team that has struggled significantly on defense this season. The Ohio State defense remains elite, ranking fifth in the country in both opponent-adjusted EPA per play and opponent success rate.
Pick: Ohio State -245
Pick: Miami -675
Pick: Texas -1450
Pick: Missouri -380
Pick: Boise State -440
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
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