Michael Carrick has been given a stay of execution by Manchester United after the club considered making a fourth managerial change in four years following their defeat by Bournemouth.

Carrick, the club's eighth permanent boss since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013, came under major scrutiny after their poor start to the season continued with the 3-0 loss at Old Trafford.

But what if United aren't an elite team underperforming - what if they are in fact a mid-table team whose results have made them look better than they are in the post-Ferguson era?

What if the managers aren't really to blame?

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Man Utd managers have overperformed

United's managers have paid the price for the club's struggles over the course of the last decade, but research for Between the Lines shows they have mostly overperformed in terms of points won in the Premier League relative to 'expected' points.

United's total of 669 points is the fifth-highest in the Premier League in that timeframe. But the Sky Sports expected points model, which factors the quality of a team's scoring chances for and against by game, puts United on 613, meaning they have taken 56 points more than expected.

Since 2016, only Everton have outperformed their expected points by a bigger margin among Premier League clubs.

This type of overperformance can be explained by a variety of factors, including clinical finishing, good goalkeeping, wasteful opponents and simply luck. But it has been a theme of the last decade at United and raises questions of their true level.

On a per-game basis, Carrick ranks as the biggest overperformer of their recent managers, averaging 1.85 points per game from an expected average of 1.37 over the course of his tenure.

He has underperformed this season, taking three points less than expected. But last season, he guided United to a third-placed finish on 71 points with an expected total of 61. United 'should' have finished two places lower, based on the expected table.

Erik ten Hag, Ralf Rangnick, Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer also overperformed relative to expected points while in charge of United, with Ruben Amorim the only exception since 2016.

Carrick's exploits last season raised expectations. If he could take United from seventh to third in the space of a few months, what could he achieve over the course of a full season?

But results flattered their performances - and not for the first time.

Last season was the eighth of the last 10 in which United have finished higher than expected, based on the quality of their performances. While United fans want a return to their glorious past, the underlying numbers betray a mid-table team.

Between 2021/22 and 2025/26, United's average expected finishing position was ninth. Our expected points model shows that in the 2023/24 season, when they finished eighth under Ten Hag, they should actually have finished significantly lower, in 14th.

Poor recruitment the bigger issue

United's consistently mediocre performance levels raise questions about the quality of their squad - and that despite having a net spend 40 per cent higher than any other club's since 2016 at £1.4bn.

United's net spend rank among Premier League clubs has been higher than their expected points rank in eight of the last 10 seasons. Damningly, they haven't registered a higher expected points rank than net spend rank in any of those seasons.

The numbers lay bare the club's poor recruitment over the last decade. The managers are not blameless, of course. But the issues at the club clearly run deeper than the men in the dugout.

"The reason people are there in the dressing room is because someone recommended them," said Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville on his podcast after Sunday's defeat to Bournemouth.

"Michael Carrick hasn't picked all those players out on that pitch. That's not Michael Carrick's job. So, who's the head of recruitment? Who's the sporting director?

"That's where all eyes should be looking now."

Those roles are currently filled by Christopher Vivell and Jason Wilcox respectively. The latter was the subject of public criticism from defender Lisandro Martinez after United's recent defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

Since Wilcox's arrival in April 2024, initially as technical director, success stories in the market have been few and far between, with Manuel Ugarte, Matthijs De Ligt, Leny Yoro, Joshua Zirkzee and Benjamin Sesko among those yet to justify their price tags.

The problems go back further, with other expensive signings, including Rasmus Hojlund, Antony, Jadon Sancho, Raphael Varane and Romelu Lukaku predating the appointments of Wilcox and Vivell.

But the cumulative result is a squad which cost far more than it is now worth. In fact, according to Transfermarkt's fees paid and valuations, only Spurs have a higher negative difference between squad cost and value than United among Premier League clubs.

While the majority of clubs have created value, United are one of only six to have done the opposite.

Until the club can resolve the recruitment issues which have left them lacking the quality to compete at the desired level, their managers will continue to suffer the consequences.