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The Jaguars' Case for the No. 1 Seed After Major Trades: Getting Past Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance for the No. 1 seed, and here is who they will have to get past to get it.

Aug 21, 2026; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen during the first quarter of the preseason game against the Carolina Panthers at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to do something they have not done in over 25 years: win the AFC's top seed.

There is still an entire half of the season left to play after Week 9, but the 6-2 Jaguars have been as good, if not better, as any of the top teams in the AFC. The Jaguars haven't walked into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed since 1999, but there feels like a very real chance that could change this year if the Jaguars continue down their current path.

This is even more true after the wild Monday the Jaguars had. Jacksonville already looked like one of the best teams, if not the best overall, in football before they added Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis, and Davon Godchaux in some critical blockbuster moves ahead of the trade deadline.

So, what case do the Jaguars have moving forward when it comes to the race for the No. 1 seed? We break it down below, starting with their biggest competition.

The Case Over the Buffalo Bills

Jan 11, 2026; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after an AFC Wild Card Round game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jaguars' biggest rival for the No. 1 seed looks like the Buffalo Bills, who beat the Jaguars in a heartbreaker in the Wild Card round last year. The Bills were likely the only thing standing between the Jaguars and the Super Bowl a year ago, and there is a good chance they are once again going to be their primary hurdle. That is why getting a piece like Bates before the Bills could jump was so critical,

The Bills do still get to play both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins twice, but they also have the Broncos, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers on the schedule. The Jaguars only have to play one of those teams over the second-half of the season, and the Bills have already proven that they are indeed human after several close wins against teams with worse records. They could drop at least two of those games, which could be all the Jaguars need.

The Case Over the Denver Broncos

Nov 8, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to pass against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Broncos are sitting at 7-2 and already beat the Jaguars earlier this season at Mile High, giving them an edge over Jacksonville if their records end up the same. That gives the Broncos their most notable advantage over the Jaguars when it comes to the pursuit of a No. 1 seed, and the Broncos also do not have many tough games left. They still get to play bad teams like the Raiders twice, the olphins, the Jets, and the Chargers. They have games that could be close against the Bills and Steelers, but it is an easy slate.

With that said, the Broncos do not always making things look easy. They had close calls with both the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Chargers, and their offense looks average at best with the way Bo Nix is playing. The Broncos rank No. 16 on offensive EPA/Play, and it simply doesn't look like they have the firepower to be able to sail through their second-half schedule with no concerns.

The Case Over the Kansas City Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) part ways after the game of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

After a 5-0 start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs have come back to earth. They beat the New York Jets on Sunday, but this was only after back-to-back losses to playoff teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, and right now the Chiefs' only win against a team with a winning record came in Week 1 against the Broncos. The Chiefs other wins came against teams witha combined record of 9-34. The Chiefs have not been as impressive as their record might suggest, in short.

Kansas City still has some tough games moving forward against the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and the New England Patriots if they ever decide to get serious this season. That is a much tougher schedule than the Jaguars have moving forward, and the Chiefs are from looking like a team that is capable of going on some kind of juggernaut run through their second-half schedule.

The Case Over the AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) scrambles before being brought down on a play in the third quarter of the NFL Week 4 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. The Bengals fell to 2-2 on the season with a 22-17 loss at home. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The AFC North is a weird place, man. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are at the top of the division at 6-2 and look like the most likely teams to represent the division in the playoffs. The Cleveland Browns are still alive at 5-4 but they are not as good as even their near-.500 record indicates, while the 4-5 Ravens have floundered without Lamar Jackson under center as they deal with injuries.

The Jaguars have already defeated the Bengals in Cincinnati, a game that was close in score but not nearly as close on the field. The Jaguars had two touchdowns and an interception into Bengals' territory called back that game, and it is clear the Jaguars' defensive boosts could go a long way against Joe Burrow, especially the addition of Bates. The Bengals, like the Jaguars, have an easy schedule the rest of the way, but their high-volume passing game could have them lose a game they shouldn't like they almost did against the Tennessee Titans.

As for the Steelers, the Jaguars will see them at home on Monday Night Football on Dec. 14. The Steelers passing game is brutal, though they do rank No. 1 in rushing EPA/Play and No. 7 in rushing success rate. Adding Davis to the mix after losing Davon Hamilton should go a long way in that matchup, but it doesn't appear the Steelers have the horses in the passing game to earn the top seed anyways.

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