Retour
The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to an 8-3 start, and if you'd told Wolves fans back in early October that would be how the first three weeks would go, every single one of them would have taken it. Add in the absence of Anthony Edwards following the opening four games, and the deal sounds even better.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about the start of the season is that the Wolves remain the top defensive unit in basketball. Add in that the offense remains a top-seven unit, and Minnesota is No. 3 in point differential three weeks into the season.
We now have enough of a sample size to begin to identify some trends and try to determine why and how things are the way they are as of now. But we're still only 13% of the way through the schedule, so the next layer is to try to parse what is real and what isn't; what is likely to change versus what might just stay the same.
One of the primary concerns with the new-look Timberwolves roster was rebounding.
The Wolves' defensive rebounding was already a roller coaster over the last couple of years, and replacing Julius Randle and Naz Reid with Jonathan Kuminga and an inexperienced Joan Beringer was figured to be a bit of a risk.
Then again, Randle and Reid were relatively underwhelming on the glass relative to their positions, and the Wolves replaced poor-rebounding guards in Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo with LaMelo Ball, who is one of the best rebounding guards in the league.
So far this season, Terrence Shannon Jr. has rebounded at an incredible rate, taking his 7.8% defensive rebound rate from last season up to 15.2%—although his sample size is even smaller after missing three games with a hip injury. Joan Beringer has looked much improved on the defensive glass, and Jaden McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu have done a great job pinching down on the defensive glass while Rudy Gobert absorbs bodies in the paint.
As always, rebounding is more about effort and intention than anything else, and the Wolves have shown a genuine dedication to being good on the defensive glass this season. They are currently No. 12 in the league, which feels sustainable and will be important if they are going to remain near the top defensively.
The offensive glass has been a bit more confounding. The Wolves are No. 3 in the league in offensive rebound rate and No. 1 in plays per 100 misses, per Cleaning The Glass, meaning that they generate more opportunities to score off of offensive rebounds than any other team in the league. Their success rate, however, leaves a lot to be desired; the Wolves are No. 1 in points per 100 plays on putbacks, scoring just 103.3 points per 100 chances.
In other words, they've rebounded the ball at a high rate but are not converting, which is primarily an issue at the rim and at the free throw line (more on the free throw issues in a moment).
Given the presence of Gobert and Beringer and the knack they both have for grabbing offensive boards, the bet here is that the glasswork on the offensive end stays near the top of the league. Eventually, we should see the success rate off of offensive rebounds begin to increase as well.
The Timberwolves are not shooting enough free throws. When they get to the line, they're the worst shooting team in the league, and it isn't close.
First, the frequency. The Wolves are No. 26 in free throw rate, attempting just 18.8 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. That's down from No. 12 in the league last year and is impacted dramatically by the absence of Edwards and by replacing Randle in the Wolves' offense with Ball. (Obviously, Ball is the better offensive player, but there are trade-offs—the Wolves play much faster and generate more open shots with Ball, which is more important than Randle's impact on free-throw rate.)
Ultimately, it would not be a surprise to see the Wolves' ranking stabilize more in the middle of the pack rather than in the lower third of the league. The amount of pressure that Shannon and Ayo Dosunmu put on the rim, combined with the high volume of offensive rebounds, will surely lend itself to more trips to the charity stripe. Of course, Edwards's pending return around the time the calendar turns to 2027 will be the biggest boon by far.
When the Wolves actually get to the line, the shooting has been an unmitigated disaster. Minnesota is shooting 67% on free throws—last in the league and an insane 5.3% lower than the No. 29 team. More context: Atlanta, which is 20th in free-throw percentage, is closer to Memphis at No. 1 (8.5% difference) than the Wolves are to Atlanta (9.3% difference).
Of course, Gobert has attempted the most free throws by a wide margin (53 attempts; Kuminga is second with 36) and has been horrendous, making just 41.5%. The case of Gobert specifically is confounding; he shot a good-enough 64.1% from the line over the first 12 seasons of his career but has shot a horrific 51% going back to the start of last season.
Kuminga, who has shot the second most free throws, has also been terrible. He's made only 52.8% after coming into the season carrying a career mark of 69.9% from the line. They are by far the two biggest culprits, as Ball, Dosunmu, and Jaden McDaniels are all north of 80% individually.
It's fair to assume that this number will improve; it would defy logic to remain this bad. But Dosunmu and Shannon need to generate more free-throw attempts, and Gobert and Kuminga simply need to make a more reasonable number of their attempts. Apparently, this has been easier said than done thus far.
After the Wolves attempted 50 3-pointers in their season-opening win over Miami three weeks ago, it sure seemed like the Ball-Edwards-led backcourt would be running and gunning on a nightly basis. Yours truly predicted on the "Locked On Wolves" podcast that the Wolves would attempt 3,500 threes as a team on the season, which would have put them in the top three league-wide last year.
The Wolves are currently on pace for around 3,200 3-point attempts and are currently just No. 16 in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate. Certainly, the injury to Edwards changed the shot mix that the Wolves will have for a solid chunk of the season, and that has to be factored in. Still, Ball's Charlotte Hornets were No. 3 in the league last year in three-pointers attempted, and Ball himself has averaged nearly 9 3-point attempts per game over his career, including 10.3 per game last season.
It seems to be mostly a byproduct of the speed at which the likes of Dosunmu and Shannon are playing and the amount of pressure the Wolves are putting on the rim; they are currently tied for No. 5 in the league in shots within three feet of the basket. If you can get open shots at the rim, you take them.
Ultimately, it seems likely that the Wolves will still end up in the top third of the league in three-point attempt rate; Beringer and Gobert are the only players in the rotation who don't have 3-pointers as part of their shot diet, and both McDaniels and Dosunmu are shooting fewer threes than they have historically, with the former having the second-lowest 3-point rate of his career and the latter by far the lowest.
On the accuracy front, the Wolves look great. They are No. 8 in the NBA in three-point percentage, and they're being led by some otherworldly catch-and-shoot numbers from some of the primary beneficiaries of Ball's presence.
Dosunmu is shooting 53.6% on catch-and-shoot threes so far this season, which is seventh in the league among players attempting at least 2.5 such shot attempts per game. Kuminga has been awesome as well, making 47.4% of his catch-and-shoot long-balls on 3.5 per game, which ranks No. 15.
For context, Luke Kennard led the NBA last year by making 48.7% of catch-and-shoot threes. Dosunmu was actually No. 10 in the league last year among players who played at least half the season, making 43.9% of his shots. In other words, while Dosunmu won't make more than half of his threes all season long, it's not that crazy of an outlier.
Expect the presence of Ball to lead to a much higher success rate on catch-and-shoot threes than Wolves fans are accustomed to seeing over the course of the season. The Wolves will also get Edwards back eventually, and his presence will help buoy the overall volume of attempts.
The current shot mix for the Wolves (top five in rim attempts, middle-of-the-pack in 3-point attempt rate, and bottom five in free throws) is close to good, but not quite where Chris Finch will ultimately want it to settle. Let's keep an eye on how the Wolves' shot diet develops over the course of the season.