Safety above all else—that’s what Formula 1 emphasises time and again. But now, as tensions with Iran threaten to escalate again, that principle seems less important.

As the drivers waited for the rain to ease during qualifying for the São Paulo Grand Prix, Stefano Domenicali spoke to Viaplay. “Safety first,” said the Formula 1 CEO, explaining why conditions at a soaking-wet Interlagos were too dangerous for qualifying to resume. It was an understandable decision. Nobody wanted to see a serious accident.

Safety first. That was the guiding principle on Saturday in Brazil, but apparently not when looking ahead to the Grands Prix in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Experts warn that the risk of the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating again is growing, yet Formula One Management (FOM) insists it is safe enough to race.

Domenicali and his team seem ready to send thousands of people to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the coming weeks, even as the US government is strongly advising its citizens to think carefully before travelling to the region. It warns of the risk of terrorist attacks and says airspace could be closed for some time.

'Iran could strike first at any moment'

Two days after the United States carried out a brief attack on Iran, Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told the Arab news channel Al Jazeera that another attack on Iran remains ‘absolutely possible’, despite voters in the United States and Israel having expressed opposition to the war at the polls.

"They are monitoring US and Israeli actions more and more closely. The intensity has also increased over the past 48 hours," he said. "A few days ago, after the electoral bloodbath in the elections, I thought an escalation by Trump in Iran was less likely. But by now, it once again seems absolutely possible."

"I think we have to consider the possibility that Iran may try to pre-empt a major US-Israeli attack by striking first. Particularly if the Iranians become convinced that a US-Israeli attack is inevitable."

FOM undoubtedly sees reports like these too, but so far it seems to be ignoring them completely. Formula 1 apparently has sources claiming that there is nothing to worry about. Who are these sources? Most likely the authorities in Qatar and the Emirates, who naturally have every reason to assure Formula 1 that the region is absolutely safe. Does FOM also have a direct line to Iran’s supreme leader so it can find out about his plans in advance?

It is supposedly so safe that an evacuation plan has been drawn up in case violence does break out. The teams and drivers will soon know exactly where the shelters are. Safety first. There is no such plan for a Grand Prix at Silverstone or Monza, even though those venues are just as safe as the Middle East, aren’t they?

It’s all about money

Ultimately, the decision to go to Qatar and Abu Dhabi—or not—has nothing to do with safety. All FOM sees is money, and a lot of it. If the sport doesn’t travel to the Middle East, it will miss out on tens of millions. Let’s be realistic: if these races barely made a penny, they would have been dropped from the calendar long ago.

At the same time, there is a chance that Qatar and Abu Dhabi will have to be cancelled at the last minute because of the renewed conflict, by then, it could be too late to switch to Imola. In that case, the Las Vegas Grand Prix would be the final race of the season. The F1 season would then comprise 21 races, below the minimum number agreed with broadcasters.

For broadcasters such as Sky Sports, which pays FOM £200 million a year, that would be a major blow (for example, because of lost advertising revenue). It cannot be ruled out that broadcasters would file a claim against Formula 1 if there are not enough races. This is a problem that could, incidentally, be avoided by choosing Imola as the season finale now. With Imola included, F1 would have 22 Grands Prix this season.

A decision will be made in the coming week: will every effort be made to race in the Middle East? If so, preparations in Imola will be halted, with the risk that the season will end after Las Vegas. For now, that is a very real possibility—one that could easily have been avoided.