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Supercomputer predicts all six Nations Championship results – including potential Scotland shock
Finn Russell

The Nations Championship continues this weekend as the best from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres battle it out for global superiority.

Using thousands of simulations, the latest supercomputer predictions for the global tournament have weighed in on every match in round four.

Is South Africa expected to continue their winning start? Will Scotland finally beat the All Blacks? Could Japan make history by beating Wales in Cardiff?

The supercomputer also looks at intriguing matches involving England, Australia, Ireland and Argentina.

Here is what the supercomputer is expecting from round four.

Ireland vs Argentina 

Prediction: Ireland win (77%)

The opening match of the Northern Hemisphere edition to the inaugural Nations Championship could be one of the more physical Test matches this weekend.

Ireland, who currently sit third in the World Rugby rankings, face Los Pumas in Dublin, as the supercomputer predicts a narrow victory for Andy Farrell’s side.

Home advantage here seems decisive, and after beginning their campaign in July with an eye-catching, hard-fought victory against Australia, it should give Ireland a lot of confidence.

However, they followed this with an underwhelming performance against Japan in Canberra and a 40-21 defeat against New Zealand. Argentina lost only once in July, to England, and secured back-to-back wins against Scotland and Wales.

That said, the supercomputer leans toward Ireland kick-starting their November with a narrow win, giving Argentina a 23% chance of winning at Aviva Stadium on Friday.

Italy vs South Africa 

Prediction: South Africa win (87%)

Italy’s November could not have begun with a tougher assignment. The Azzurri welcome the back-to-back World Champions, South Africa, to Turin, and it is little surprise to see what the supercomputer predicts.

There shouldn’t be any shock here, especially after Italy were unable to record a victory, conceding 131 points across three games (Japan, 27, New Zealand, 47, and Australia, 57)

For the Springboks, the predicted champions of the Nations Championship, they are better suited heading into this month’s action, with comfortable wins against England, Scotland, and Wales.

The supercomputer is heavily backing South Africa, but don't forget they enter the contest off a defeat, so that predicted big win may not be a foregone conclusion.

Scotland vs New Zealand 

Prediction: New Zealand win (69%)

Up next is one of the more intriguing encounters of round four. This could be the best of the weekend.

Despite arriving in November with only one victory to start their Nations Championship campaign, Scotland will have plenty of confidence that they can produce a first-ever win against the All Blacks.

The supercomputer sees the match as relatively close, but after a dominant start in July with victories against France, Italy, and Ireland, there’s only one winner at Murrayfield.

Even with the added bonus of a home crowd in Edinburgh, it could be a nail-biter. But the supercomputer still predicts the All Blacks to win by at least nine points.

Wales vs Japan 

Prediction: Wales win (55%)

From one potential classic to this one, the closest contest of the weekend is in Cardiff, where Steve Tandy’s Wales are given a slight edge over Eddie Jones’ Japan.

It’s quick to forget what happened last year when the pair met at Principality Stadium; many had Japan winning that day. Wales hold a slight edge on Saturday, but with it so close, the supercomputer says it could be a coin flip.

Like Wales, the Brave Blossoms secured one victory in July and recently lost to Fiji, so it is understandable that the supercomputer is edging toward another narrow win for Wales (by four).

France vs Fiji 

Prediction: France win (88%)

The best team currently in the Northern Hemisphere against the weakest in the Southern Hemisphere. It shouldn't be a shock that the supercomputer thinks France will win easily in Lyon.

France’s July needs context, especially given that many of their heavy hitters were absent. Even then, they still scored 42 points against both Australia and Japan in comfortable wins.

Fiji enters the contest with a confidence-boosting victory over Japan, but the supercomputer is struggling to erase what unfolded in the ‘Southern Hemisphere’ part of the Nations Championship.

Fiji lost to Wales, England, and Scotland and has a 12% chance of pulling off a massive upset against the back-to-back Six Nations champions, France.

England vs Australia

Prediction: England win (75%)

England are heavily backed to put aside Australia at Allianz Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Steve Borthwick’s side is given just a 25% chance of losing, with Australia seemingly given a mountain to climb to get a positive result in south-west London.

England proved, after a heavy 45-21 defeat against the Springboks in Johannesburg, that they can bounce back. They did so with a comfortable 73-8 triumph over Fiji and a hard-fought 31-24 victory against Argentina.

Australia, under head coach Les Kiss, are starting to build their identity, and with the 2027 Rugby World Cup on the horizon, which they are hosting, a bright November campaign is needed.

However, the supercomputer predicts they'll start with at least a defeat.

They recently beat South Africa, but after a draw with Los Pumas and back-to-back defeats to the All Blacks, it's no wonder England are given the victory.

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