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Oregon Ducks heavily favored in all but 1 game, per ESPN FPI

For a third straight week, what we see on the field has not matched with what we are told by the ESPN Football Power Index.

On Saturday, the Oregon Ducks looked as bad as we've seen them this season, losing a third game on the year, this time to the Illinois Fighting Illini, 21-10. With the loss, Oregon has all but been eliminated from the College Football Playoff, and it resulted in offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer being fired early on Sunday morning.

Going forward, it will be incredibly interesting to see how the Ducks move forward, considering that there are no longer major stakes on the line outside of pure pride. There's also a question of who is calling the offense, and who the starting quarterback will be, depending on whether or not Dante Moore returns from his concussion.

Despite all of that, ESPN's FPI still appears to be high on the Ducks. Oregon remains heavy favorites in all but one of their upcoming games, and they still have a percentile chance to make it to the CFP, according to the FPI.

Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun is seen against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs past Ball State Cardinals defensive back Willizhuan Yates (4) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 5, 2026.

Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines

Bryce Underwood #19 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates after a 13-12 win over the Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Stadium on September 05, 2026 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State’s Sparty plants an MSU flag in the field prior to a game against Boston College at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, September 6, 2025.

Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies

Sep 6, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA;  Washington Huskies running back Jayden Limar (17) carries the ball for the first down against the Washington State Cougars during the second quarter at Husky Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Oregon Ducks Season Outlook

Oregon Ducks vs. Boise State Broncos 2026

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