There are only 40 left-handed starting pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings over the last two seasons.

Only seven of them have been able to record an fWAR above 7.0, and two of the pitchers on the list will be free agents this winter. I think the main name is pretty easy to recognize, because he is the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and the 2024 pitching Triple Crown winner, Tarik Skubal.

He is not the pitcher leading the way over the period we are analyzing since 2025, but he has an 11.9 fWAR, the highest among all the free agents who will be available this offseason. Skubal finished the regular season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and came fairly close to Cristopher Sanchez, who has led all left-handed pitchers with 12.7 fWAR over the last two campaigns.

Who appears behind Skubal? He might not be among your most sought-after free agents right now, since he regressed in 2026, but Baltimore Orioles left-hander Trevor Rogers is the most consistent arm behind Skubal among the elite options on the market for those looking for left-handed pitchers or starting pitchers in general. Rogers has a 19-14 record, a 3.52 xERA, and a 3.81 xFIP, which have earned him 7.3 fWAR, closing out the list of left-handers with at least 150 innings and an fWAR above 7.0 since 2025.

Rogers, 28, had an impressive 2025 and, despite his debut being delayed until late May because of an injury to his right knee, finished with a 9-3 record, a 1.81 ERA in 109 ⅔ innings, and a 3.3 fWAR, his best since he accumulated 4.3 with the Miami Marlins in 2021. He came back stronger and, although his 2026 campaign was not as dominant, he threw the most innings of his career (169 ⅔) and increased his fWAR to 4.0, which shows his impact in the league much better than his 4.03 ERA.

Why should the Blue Jays have Rogers in their plans?

We still do not have certainty about several of the key decisions the Jays will face, and how they will address their starting pitching problems in particular. That inevitably means Toronto will have to turn its attention to the free-agent market. That said, I think Rogers has everything it takes to be a pitcher of interest for a rotation that lacks left-handed arms capable of providing value. Each of the Jays’ most recent experiences with left-handed pitchers has been disappointing.

The best of all the most recent versions we have seen over the last five seasons was the impact of Yusei Kikuchi, who finished with 3.9 fWAR in 74 starts over a couple of full campaigns, after recovering from a deficient first year in which he finished with a 5.19 ERA and -0.9 fWAR in 2022. Hyun Jin Ryu was the most consistent, but when his contract with Toronto ended, he decided to return to South Korea to play for the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO. Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin have been two intermittent pieces who could not stabilize themselves in 2026 because of their inconsistencies and injuries.

So all of this puts Rogers in an excellent position for the Toronto Blue Jays to begin weighing the possibilities of strengthening their rotation with a left-handed arm. It could be expensive, but if Rogers is healthy, I think the move is worth it. The short-term investment would add a left-hander who has shown he can be consistent over the last two campaigns, and the Blue Jays would have a different strength within a rotation with absences, which gets its best impact from right-handed arms.