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3 Matchups Colts Must Win to Upset Jaguars in Week 8

The Colts are in freefall, but beating Jacksonville comes down to three critical matchups, starting in the trenches.

Oct 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) reacts after rushing for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-5, their general manager is gone, and Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner have been traded. This franchise is falling apart from the inside out.

Although the rebuild has begun, the players left behind haven't appeared to quit. They just fought undefeated Minnesota in a 16-10 loss.

Now comes a 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars team fresh off its bye. Do the Colts roll over, or fight for the team being dismantled around them?

If they choose to fight, here are the battles they need to focus on.

Jaguars Pass Rush vs. Colts' New Offensive Line

Indianapolis Colts guard Jalen Farmer (62) walks on the field Monday, Aug. 3, 2026, during practice at Colts Camp at Grand Park in Westfield. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Minnesota blitzed Daniel Jones on an absurd 85.2% of his dropbacks last week. Now the Colts have to protect him without Quenton Nelson.

Jones averaged just 2.57 seconds to throw and was sacked four times. If he doesn't have time to make decisions, this offense isn't going anywhere.

Rookie Jalen Farmer is set for his first start at left guard, replacing a future Hall of Famer who owned that spot since 2018. Nobody expects Farmer to be Big Q, but hopefully Nelson left some of his greatness behind in that room.

Jacksonville has just 11 sacks through six games, but Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can still wreck a game. This new combination has to hold up.

Colts Secondary vs. Jaguars Passing Game

Oct 11, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) in action in the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trevor Lawrence has repeatedly hurt the Colts through the air, and he's thrown 14 touchdowns against just four interceptions this season.

Per Pro Football Focus, Lawrence ranks fifth in passing grade against man coverage. Indianapolis plays man at the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Sauce Gardner returns from a calf injury, and all eyes should be on him. As a likely franchise cornerstone of the next era, Gardner needs to remind everyone why Indy invested so much in him.

Speaking of which, rookie linebacker CJ Allen is set to make his first start after seven weeks of rotational play. Colts' defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo said earlier this week that Allen was in line to start against the Minnesota Vikings, but a late week ankle injury sidelined him once more.

After a brutal stretch of (mainly injury-related) setbacks to kick off his career, CJ Allen is set to make his first start, and, if all goes as planned, begin to showcase that he'll be the incoming era's next leader of the defense.

With longtime franchise pillar DeForest Buckner now across the country, Justin Walley ruled out, and Cam Taylor-Britt on injured reserve, there isn't much room for mistakes.

If Lawrence starts picking the Colts apart, Jacksonville can do whatever it wants offensively.

Jaguars Run Defense vs. Jonathan Taylor

Oct 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is probably the most important matchup of the afternoon.

Jonathan Taylor is at the center of NFL trade rumors as we approach the November 10th deadline, but the Colts' longtime captain and star rusher is focused on his work. Taylor has not requested a trade, but trade talks grow louder as we inch closer to the aforementioned deadline.

Jacksonville owns the league's second-highest run-defense grade (76.3), per PFF, and allows a league-best 3.2 yards per carry. That's a brutal assignment for Jonathan Taylor and an offensive line adjusting to life without Quenton Nelson.

Taylor has 587 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including 95 yards and a score against Minnesota.

When JT gets rolling, the Colts move the chains, score points and compete. When he's shut down, defenses force Jones to throw, pressure piles up and the offense becomes stationary.

Simple formula: Get JT hot, compete on Sunday.

Indianapolis hasn't won in Jacksonville since 2014. The rebuild may already be underway, but this team can still decide whether it goes down swinging.

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