All eyes will be on Kimi Antonelli at the Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix, as he is on the verge of clinching his maiden F1 Drivers’ Championship. He needs a ninth-place finish this weekend, or a little bit of help, to put both hands on the trophy.

But Antonelli and his Mercedes teammates can also clinch another trophy at the Mexico City Grand Prix.

This is the first race weekend where Mercedes has a path to clinching the Constructors’ Championship, awarded to the best team each season. While the Drivers’ Championship brings individual glory, the Constructors’ Championship brings dollars. Lots of them. According to estimates, McLaren brought home nearly $180 million for winning the 2025 Constructors’ Championship, and Mercedes is in line for an even bigger haul, given how the payouts work under the sport’s Concorde Agreement. While the exact structure of payouts Mercedes has received legacy bonuses in recent years under a “previous success” bonus that incorporates how teams have fared over the previous decade.

Given that the previous decade still includes Mercedes’ run of dominance during the return of the turbocharger era starting in 2014, when the team won eight consecutive titles from 2014 through 2021, that bonus still plays a part in the team’s payout.

Returning to this weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix, here is how Mercedes can clinch the title.

Mercedes enters the Mexico City Grand Prix with 607 points, giving the team a commanding 133-point lead over Ferrari with five race weekends remaining, including this weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix:

Ferrari is the only team with a mathematical chance to catch Mercedes in the standings.

Given that each of the remaining races follows the standard Grand Prix format (and does not include an F1 Sprint race) the maximum points available to a team each weekend is 43: 25 points for a win, and 18 points for a second-place finish.

That means that to clinch the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes needs to leave the Mexico City Grand Prix with at least a 172-point lead. Because after Mexico City, four races will remain, offering a maximum of 172 points. Mercedes has already clinched the “countback” tiebreaker over Ferrari, as the Silver Arrows have won 12 races, compared to two for Ferrari, so even if the Scuderia win every remaining race, Mercedes will have more wins.

So if the teams finish level on points, the number of wins serves as the first tiebreaker, and Mercedes has clinched. that.

So how can Mercedes reach that 172-point advantage, and clinch the title in Mexico City?

They need to extend the current 133-point lead by 39 points. The first way is through a one-two finish. If either Antonelli or George Russell wins the Mexico City Grand Prix and the other driver finishes second, that would give Mercedes 43 points, moving their season total to 650.

Then, they would need Ferrari to score four points or less. That would mean one driver finishing eighth or lower (and the other finishing outside of the points) or Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc finishing in ninth or tenth place. (An eighth-place finish is worth four points, a ninth-place finish is worth two points, and a tenth-place finish is worth a single point).

If Ferrari scores just four points in Mexico City in this scenario, they would move to 478 points, exactly 172 points behind Mercedes. And with the Silver Arrows having already clinched the tiebreaker, they would be champions. But finishing one place higher for Ferrari (a seventh-place finish carries six points) would push the title another week, as Ferrari would be 170 points behind Mercedes and inside that 172-point threshold.

Or, Mercedes can clinch the title with a win from one driver and a P3 from the other. That would give the team 40 points, moving their season tally to 647.

Then, they would need Ferrari to score just a single point. That would increase their total to 475, a gap of 172 points.

However, assume for a moment that the best Mercedes can do is a P1 and a P4. That would give the team 37 points in Mexico City, and increase their season total to 644.

Even if Ferrari does not score a single point, the gap would be 170 points, still inside that 172-point threshold, pushing the championship to next weekend in Brazil.

If Mercedes clinches this weekend, it means something has happened for the first time this Formula 1 season.

Not on the Mercedes end. The Silver Arrows have finished one-two in three races this season (Australia, China, and Monza) and one-three in one other race (Austria).

But this year, Ferrari has not scored lower than eight points over a single race weekend. Their lowest total, eight, came at their home race, the Italian Grand Prix. Leclerc crashed out of the race in the early stages, and Hamilton finished sixth.

So if Mercedes clinches, it means Ferrari had their worst weekend of the season.

There is one final point to mention, which is the speculation over the final two races currently on the schedule.

F1 is set to finish the season with the Qatar Grand Prix, and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. But ongoing hostilities in the Middle East — and the reporting that the United States is set to increase operations following next week’s midterm elections — put those races squarely in doubt. While F1 and the FIA believe those races will take place as scheduled, other events in the region have already been canceled. For example, the promoters of DAKAR 2027, the rally race that was set to take place in Saudi Arabia, announced Friday morning that the event will be held in January in Portugal and Morocco.

So, hypothetically, if both Qatar and Abu Dhabi are canceled, that means only four races remain, including this weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix.

That also means that counting this weekend, a maximum of 172 points are available, and following this weekend, only 129 points are available.

With a current 133-point lead, Mercedes would just need to avoid dropping five points or more to Ferrari to clinch in this scenario.