ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy is backing No. 3 Georgia to bounce back from its first loss of the season against No. 17 Florida on Saturday, with the rivalry moving to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium this year.

The former Alabama quarterback took the Bulldogs to win 34-20 on his Always College Football podcast ahead of the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. “Florida’s road win at Texas was legitimate. But Georgia’s front takes away the run game,” McElroy said.

Why is McElroy backing Georgia?

Georgia rose to No. 1 after a 20-17 win at Alabama on Oct. 10, then lost 27-24 at home to Auburn a week later. Quarterback Gunner Stockton threw two interceptions in that loss after taking a hard hit on the game’s first play, and Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Stockton showed no concussion symptoms.

“Now, he did have a stinger in his shoulder, and that can affect you,” Smart said.

Auburn followed that upset with a 38-17 home loss to LSU, a result that led Paul Finebaum to call the Georgia win “fluky.” McElroy sees Georgia’s offense returning to form after the bye, mainly because of where Florida’s defense has struggled.

“The two biggest matchups in the game both belong to Georgia’s offense: the short passing game against a defense that has struggled to stop it, and third down against a defense that has struggled to get off the field,” McElroy said.

Florida’s quarterback decision

Florida coach Jon Sumrall still hasn’t picked a starter between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. Philo, a Georgia Tech transfer, started the first six games and completed 70.5% of his passes for 1,341 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions before a shoulder injury. Jones threw two touchdowns in his first career start, a 27-24 upset at then-No. 7 Texas.

“Both guys are available,” Sumrall said. “I’m not going to name a starter today. We need both guys ready to play.”

Smart said Georgia has to prepare for both. “One beat Ole Miss handily. One beat Texas on the road,” Smart said.

The win in Austin snapped a two-game skid that included lopsided losses to Missouri (45-17) and South Carolina (38-19). Sumrall knows the stakes are different this week. “Florida-Georgia is different. Anybody that says otherwise is insane,” Sumrall said.

What gives Florida a chance?

Florida’s path runs through running back Jadan Baugh, an Atlanta native playing a rivalry game close to home. McElroy pointed out that Sumrall’s teams are 37-3 when they rush for 125 yards or more, which would let the Gators shorten the game against a Georgia front that allows under 3 yards per carry.

Penalties are the other concern for a Florida offense built on long drives. McElroy said keeping the flag count under six would leave “the upset path very, very open.”

Georgia’s conservative approach could also keep the Gators within range. “Georgia goes for it on fourth down less than any team in the FBS,” McElroy said. “That’s a formula for winning comfortably without covering a massive number, because punts and field goals leave the door ajar.”

Georgia has won the last five meetings, including a 24-20 win in Jacksonville last season.