You might have to go all the way back to WrestleMania VII to find a WWE premium live event with so much uncertainty and venue drama ahead of the event. At this point, it appears we are moving ahead with holding Crown Jewel in Saudi Arabia, but it will not take place at the original outdoor venue in Riyadh because of security concerns. Instead, it’ll take place inside the ANB Arena and will feature four matches, all of which include very top tier talent.

Now, whether they’re the most exciting matches in the world, however, is another matter entirely. It kind of depends on whether you care about long-term booking. The concept of Crown Jewel is that it brings together the world champions on both the men’s and women’s sides to compete in what’s essentially a who’s better match. The result doesn’t typically have any long-term repercussions. It’s just a showcase for the biggest names in WWE to compete, which is both fun and largely toothless.

This year, we’re getting a card that includes showcase matches featuring Roman Reigns vs Sami Zayn and Liv Morgan vs Chelsea Green. Neither has been built like a WrestleMania main event, but there’s definitely some intrigue and fun to be had in each. We’re also getting a tag team championship match featuring The Vision and the latest round of the Randy Orton and Cody Rhodes feud that feels like it’s been going on for ten years. Before I get into what I think is going to happen though, you can check out my prediction record for the biggest WWE events so far this year, as well as my overall success for every PLE since WrestleMania 38.

Cody Rhodes vs Randy Orton

Cody Rhodes defeated Randy Orton during the main event of night one at WrestleMania 42 in the midst of the very divisive Pat McAfee storyline. Orton then got his revenge on Rhodes at Saturday Night’s Main Event back in September. Now we’re getting a third match, and the story they’re telling is pretty clear. In order to beat Orton, Rhodes is going to need to go to a much darker place than normal and probably punt the Viper’s head to win the match. It’s not the sort of thing a traditional good guy would do, but everyone involved seems to feel Cody needs a bit of a spark and new direction after four years of being a mid 90s Bret Hart style babyface.

The crowd still loves Rhodes and Orton, but I don’t think anyone is looking for the feud to continue after this match. That’s why Rhodes is almost certainly going to win. We’ve done this dance about whether he’s going to get more heelish and evil for much of his title run, and either it needs to happen or not. We can’t just keep teasing it. He needs to punt Orton in the head and then we need to see the fallout of what that means for his character.

Predicted Winner: Cody Rhodes

Bron Breakker and Austin Theory (Champions) vs Penta and Je’Von Evans for The World Tag Team Championships

It’s no secret that WWE’s tag team division is an absolute mess right now, and nothing symbolizes the company’s failing multi-year strategy more than this match. No one involved here is a tag team wrestler or even wrestles tag team matches on a regular basis. Breakker and Theory just hold the belts because it’s a cheap way to give The Vision some level of credibility since they don’t have any of the major titles. It’s the same thing we’ve repeatedly seen with The Judgment Day and other lower main event performers who need something to do.

As someone who loves tag team wrestling, matches like this are uniquely frustrating. That’s not to say the actual in-ring work will be bad. Everyone involved here is very capable and will put on a terrific show, but the whole exercise is basically pointless when we know Penta is way more concerned about cashing in his Money In The Bank briefcase, and Bron is way more concerned about finally winning his first world championship. This is just something for each of them to do because Triple H and company aren’t ready to pull the trigger in the main event scene.

I think The Vision is probably going to retain here because it just feels like The World Tag Team Championships would get in the way for Penta, but ultimately, it doesn’t really matter because no one involved in this match even aspires to be a tag team champion.

Predicted Winner: The Vision

Liv Morgan vs Chelsea Green for The Crown Jewel Championship

The real story here is whether Tiffany Stratton is going to cash in her Money In The Bank briefcase during this match. She’s been repeatedly teasing pulling the trigger on Liv Morgan since she shockingly beat Roxanne Perez in the stipulation match, but many fans, myself included, think she’s going to eventually cash in on her BFF Chelsea Green instead. That’s a much better long-term storyline and will allow Stratton to take her character in a more exciting direction since she’s been kind of stuck in the mud.

If Tiffy Time doesn’t get involved in this match, Liv Morgan should win. I’m not saying she’s for sure going to win, but if WWE cares anything at all about logic, she should win. Morgan is one of WWE’s strongest in-ring female performers, and while Chelsea Green is fine enough in the ring, there’s been a lot of fan talk about how sloppy and slow some of her recent matches have been. That’s not entirely been her fault, but she’s still been a part of some bad in-ring work. The whole point of Crown Jewel is supposed to be for fans to get a dream match where we get to see who would win what’s essentially an in-ring technical contest. That’s clearly Morgan.

I think there’s a high likelihood this match ends up with a bunch of shenanigans and maybe a cash-in. If it’s just a straight up wrestling contest though, Morgan should clearly win.

Predicted Winner: Liv Morgan

Roman Reigns vs Sami Zayn for The Crown Jewel Championship

The only thing that matters in this match is whether the 946 interfere in it. WWE is not going to let Sami Zayn beat Roman Reigns in a straight up match, and even if they were open to the possibility, it wouldn’t make sense for their characters. Roman is repeatedly depicted as a dominant champion who is now winning matches without his family’s help. Zayn is repeatedly shown hanging on to his WWE Championship by desperate, narrow margins. A loss wouldn’t really hurt him, whereas with Roman, it would cost him some real aura points and chip away at his character.

My guess is they’re not going to interfere. We have seen a clear effort from WWE over the past year or two to keep all the shenanigans and outside noise away from Roman’s matches. The goal of almost all of them has simply been to put on a banger and prove Reigns is a fantastic in-ring worker and not just a visually-appealing package with a good entrance and strong catch phrases. I think that trend continues here, and I think he gets the best of Zayn in a competitive but ultimately clean match that Roman wins.