Phil Parkinson knows exactly where Wrexham were this time last year.

“We were similar at this stage last year,” he said after Friday’s 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United. “We were patchy and we worked with the group on an understanding as to what it means to play for this club. We got it and nearly got in the play-offs. We have to get that level with this group.”

He’s right about the similarity. Going into Friday, Wrexham’s record after 12 games in the Championship was identical to a year ago: three wins, five draws and four defeats. Game 13 is where the two seasons split.

Last season, Wrexham beat previously unbeaten leaders Coventry City 3-2 on the final Friday of October, with Kieffer Moore scoring a hat-trick. It sparked a run that took them to seventh, just short of the play-offs. This time, Ben Brereton Diaz’s first-half goal at Bramall Lane left Wrexham with one shot on target and Parkinson questioning his players.

“I don’t feel we have got the consistent effort level and desire every week,” he said after Friday’s defeat. “That’s what our fans are used to seeing.”

The numbers suggest Wrexham aren’t much worse than last season

If this group lacks the fight of last year’s, the data doesn’t show it clearly. After 13 games last season, Wrexham’s expected goals difference was -0.7, according to FotMob. This season it’s -1.3. They’re creating slightly less, with 14.2xG compared with 16.4, but they’re also giving away fewer chances: 15.5xG against compared with 17.1.

Ultimately, the actual difference is what’s happening in both boxes. Last season, Wrexham scored 1.6 more goals than their xG suggested and conceded 1.1 fewer than expected. This season, they’ve conceded 3.5 more than expected. That’s a swing of around five goals, enough to explain the three points between the two campaigns.

FotMob’s expected points model makes the same case. It rates this season’s Wrexham as worth 17 points, exactly the total last year’s side had at this stage. In reality, they have 14.

That isn’t to say Parkinson is wrong. Effort and desire don’t show up in xG. But not everyone agrees the problem is mentality. Some supporters argue it’s structural, with Wrexham struggling to get out when they win the ball, especially with Josh Windass, Nathan Broadhead and Callum O’Hare all missing on Friday.

Middlesbrough are the perfect test for Wrexham

If Wrexham need a statement like last year’s Coventry win, Wednesday’s visitors offer the perfect opportunity for one.

Middlesbrough are the league leaders, and according to FotMob’s expected points table, are deservedly so. Their 28.0xG is the highest in the Championship, almost exactly double Wrexham’s 14.2, and only Wolves have conceded fewer quality chances.

The Racecourse could be a tense place if things go wrong early, and Wolves visit on Saturday too. But a year ago, one big home win against one of the division’s best sides changed Wrexham’s season. Parkinson will be hoping history repeats itself.