Twice now in 2026, this column has suffered from failures of imagination—and missed chances to truly nail bold predictions in the process.

What do we mean? On Oct. 2, we said a hangover would cause Florida to struggle in an eventual win over Missouri (the Tigers wound up 45–17 victors). Last Friday, we wrote that Cincinnati would similarly threaten Texas Tech—but the Bearcats, too, pulled off an eyebrow-raising upset.

This week, then, we’re jumping in feet first. What may have been close calls in previous editions of this column will now be upsets. Saturday is Halloween, and we aim to shock. With this new paradigm in mind, here are four bold predictions for the weekend to come in college football.

Minnesota shocks Indiana

This pick hinges on three questions, each more philosophical than the last: a) how healthy is Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover, b) how dependent is Indiana’s offensive success on Hoover’s health and c) are the Hoosiers prepared to operate without him? The answer to a) appears to be “not that healthy;” at press time Hoover is probable with a shoulder injury. The answer to b) and c) both seem to be “we don’t know,” as backup Grant Wilson has thrown five passes all season—introducing significant variance into a potential blowout on paper. That leaves Indiana a team with a banged-up starting quarterback and an untested backup, playing against a good defensive team coming off its biggest win of the season—this has 20–17 slog written all over it, and the Golden Gophers will have the better end.

On the other hand, Purdue tops Penn State

The Nittany Lions are double-digit favorites in this meeting of 3–4 teams, presumably due to the fact that their defense has been passable (ninth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per game) while the Boilermakers’ has been a wreck (123rd in the nation in scoring). There’s context missing, though: Purdue has played a significantly more difficult schedule than Penn State. If you play the AP’s current No. 14, No. 7 and No. 5 teams in back-to-back-to-back weeks, as the Boilermakers did in September with Wake Forest, UCLA and Notre Dame, chances are you’re going to give up some points. The point: these teams are more evenly matched than given credit for, and a plus performance from Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne can probably squeeze Purdue back to .500

The good version of Florida State shows up—and handles Clemson by double digits

These two teams are evenly matched on the field but worlds apart in terms of administrative desperation—where Tigers coach Dabo Swinney seems to have limitless equity from his pair of 2010s national titles, Seminoles coach Mike Norvell appears to be hanging on by a string. Norvell’s task Saturday is, effectively, to disguise a bad defense more effectively than Clemson can disguise a bad offense. Let’s put it this way: Virginia and the Tigers are only two spots apart in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, and the team in between them—Florida State—blew out the Cavaliers 38–7 at home on Oct. 3. With the Seminoles capable of doing that, and Clemson yet to score more than 28 points on FBS competition in ’26, a get-right game two weeks after a frustrating double-overtime loss to Miami feels likely.

Fresno State ends Oregon State’s reign as America’s sweetheart

With a fun offense, a Heisman candidate wide receiver (Jesse Legree), and a hot young coach (JaMarcus Shephard), the Beavers have built a reservoir of public goodwill this season, three years after the controlled demolition of the Pac-12. The dam is going to break earlier than expected, however. Oregon State—yet to visit a team with a winning record—plays Fresno State on the road Saturday, and the Bulldogs represent the best defense the Beavers have faced since starting 0–2 against Houston and Texas Tech. The road coach Matt Entz’s team has traveled so far—four blowout wins, two narrow losses, and one blowout loss—suggests Fresno State is better than its record, and the Bulldogs will prove it Saturday to shake up the Pac-12 race.

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