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Women’s Super League predictions: Chelsea and Man City expected to remain locked at the summit
Women’s Super League predictions: Chelsea and Man City expected to remain locked at the summit

The Women's Super League table is starting to take shape as the campaign reaches its ninth instalment, with plenty of intriguing fixtures ahead this weekend.

Chelsea lead champions Manchester City on goal difference at the top of the table, and the two title favourites get MD9 underway against Everton and West Ham, respectively.

The battle for third is also heating up, as London City Lionesses take on Birmingham City, while Tottenham will be looking to keep pace with a positive result against Brighton.

Manchester United are also in the mix, and square off against Aston Villa next, with Arsenal making the trip to Anfield to lock horns with Liverpool.  

At the opposite end of the table, Charlton Athletic remain rooted to the bottom and face a huge six-pointer against Crystal Palace as they try to get their season off the ground.

But who will be the winners and losers this time around? With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we delve into the pre-match insights.

MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM

The weekend's action begins at the Joie Stadium as Manchester City host West Ham, with Andree Jeglertz's side aiming to set the pace alongside Chelsea at the summit. 

City came away with a 2-1 win against the London City Lionesses last time out, and they face a West Ham side who produced a statement win over their own against Liverpool.

The Citizens are aiming to become the third reigning champions to take 25+ points from their opening nine games of a WSL season (W7 D1 so far) after Chelsea in 2024-25 (27 points) and the Citizens themselves in 2017-18 (25).

City have also won each of their last 16 WSL home games, winning their last three despite conceding twice in each. Prior to the Citizens’ current run, no team in WSL history had even conceded more than once in back-to-back home matches but still won them both.

And that run is expected to continue here, with City winning 81.3% of the Opta supercomputer's data-led simulations, with West Ham given a 7.1% chance of taking all three points. The likelihood of a draw is rated at 11.6%. 

City's position as overwhelming favourites owes to their strong record in this fixture. They have won 13 of their 15 WSL games against West Ham (D1 L1), completing the double over the Hammers in three of the last four seasons.

And West Ham will have to be wary of Khadija Shaw, who is on her best run of consecutive WSL starts scored in (eight) and has netted in 13 of her 19 appearances in the competition in 2026. 

CHELSEA V EVERTON

In Saturday's only other game, Chelsea welcome Everton to Stamford Bridge as they look to build on their emphatic 6-0 victory over Charlton Athletic last time out. 

After drawing with Aston Villa on MD1, Chelsea have since won seven WSL games in a row, their best winning streak in the same top-flight season since winning their first nine matches under Sonia Bompastor in 2024-25.

The Blues have also scored 18 goals across their last four WSL games, netting exactly three times twice and exactly six times twice. They have only twice before scored more than two goals in five consecutive matches in the competition, in runs ending in December 2022 and November 2023.

But they face an Everton team have kept three clean sheets in eight WSL games this season, only one fewer than they managed across the whole of the 2025-26 campaign (four in 22). However, the Opta supercomputer has a clear winner at Stamford Bridge. 

Chelsea are handed an 83.7% win probability, higher than any other team on MD9, while Everton's chances of a surprise victory are handed just a 6.1% chance of happening. 

On MD8 vs Manchester United, Everton ended a run of 22 consecutive WSL games without drawing. The Toffees last drew back-to-back league matches in October 2024, and their hopes of a stalemate are rated at 10.2%.

ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED

Sunday's action begins at Villa Park as Manchester United aim to continue their upward trajectory under Eva Olid against Aston Villa.

United are unbeaten in their last six WSL matches (W3 D3), after losing their opening two of the season. The Red Devils have, however, drawn their last two games and could record three consecutive top-flight draws for the first time since November 2024.

They have struggled in the final third, scoring just nine goals in their opening eight WSL games this season, their fewest ever at this stage of a campaign. United's 12 points are also their joint-fewest after eight matches, alongside 2019-20 and 2021-22.

But their points total of 12 comes from an Expected Points (xP) total of just eight in the WSL this season. Only Man City (+6, 22 vs 16 xP) and opponents Villa (+5, 10 vs 5 xP) have exceeded their xP by more than the Red Devils (+4).

The Opta supercomputer has predicted United to add another three to that tally, assigning them a 51.8% win probability, with a draw also handed a 23.1% chance of happening. 

United face a Villa side who are unbeaten in their last four WSL games (W2 D2), their longest run without defeat since between September and November 2025 (five). However, the Villans have won only one of their 12 WSL meetings with this weekend's opponents (D2 L9), reflecting a 25.1% win probability.

LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL

Anfield is the venue once again for a clash involving Liverpool and Arsenal, with this encounter coming a week after Mikel Arteta's side won 1-0 on Merseyside. 

The Opta supercomputer predicts a similar result to follow, given Arsenal have won 21 WSL games against Liverpool (D2 L4), the joint-most victories any team has over a single opponent in the competition, level with their 21 wins over Everton.

Arsenal are assigned a 64% win probability compared to Liverpool's total of 16.8%, while a draw is predicted to happen in 19.2% of the 10,000 data-led simulations. 

Arsenal have, however, taken just 10 points from their eight league games this season (W2 D4 L2) but have never before failed to win more than 10 points from their opening nine matches of a WSL season. The Gunners have also won just one of their last seven matches (D4 L2), their fewest ever over a seven-match spell in the WSL.

But they come up against a Liverpool team who are winless in four WSL games (D1 L3) for the first time since their 15-match run without victory between April 2025 and January 2026. The Reds have, however, lost only two of their last 11 home matches in the league (W4 D5).

The Reds are also without a win in their last five matches (D1 L4), last having a longer run without victory across all competitions as a top-flight side in January 2019 under Victoria Jepson (nine games). Gareth Taylor, meanwhile, has never gone six without victory in his managerial career.

TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON

While the focus has been on Chelsea, Man City and London City, Tottenham have gone quietly about their business and sit fourth in the WSL heading into MD9. 

Spurs have won three league games by 3+ goals and lost two league games by 3+ goals so far this season. The average margin of result in their WSL games in 2026-27 (for or against) is 3.3, the highest of any side in a campaign when excluding the Spring Series.

They are also averaging 21.5 shots per game in the WSL this season, comfortably above their previous best of 13.6 in 2023-24. After just eight matches, their 172 attempts already represent 60% of last season's 22-game total (286), while their 23 goals from an xG of 18.1 give them the biggest positive differential in the division this term (+4.9).

And their next games sees them face sixth-place Brighton, who have won back-to-back WSL games for the second time in 2026 (also between March and April). The Seagulls last won three in a row in the top-flight in November 2021 under Hope Powell.

However, Brighton have won only one of their seven WSL away games against Spurs (D2 L4), 1-0 in March 2025 through a Fran Kirby goal, while Tottenham are out for three consecutive league wins over this weekend's opponents for the first time since December 2020.

The Opta supercomputer has had its say, and Spurs are backed to go three for three against Brighton. They are assigned a 49.6% win probability compared to the Seagulls' 25% chance of taking all three points. A draw is given a likelihood of 25.4%. 

CRYSTAL PALACE V CHARLTON ATHLETIC

It's been a difficult start to life in the WSL for Charlton, who remain the only team yet to put a point on the board so far this season, with a trip to Crystal Palace up next.

Charlton are only the fifth team to lose each of their opening eight games of a WSL campaign, and the first since Leicester City in 2022-23. Of the previous four to do so, three have finished in the bottom two positions come the end of the season, and all four have finished in the bottom three places.

But among teams to play in more than one WSL season, only Yeovil Town (4%) and Doncaster Rovers Belles (10%) have a worse win rate in home games than Palace (13%), though a win in this game would see the Eagles eclipse their points tally at home (currently three) from their only previous WSL campaign (five in 2024-25).

And Sunday's basement battle could have implications for both Palace and Charlton's campaigns, and the Opta supercomputer has sided with the Eagles to land a huge three points.

Palace are handed a 53.9% win probability to Charlton's 22.4% chance of victory, while a draw is predicted to happen in 23.7% of those outcomes.

Despite Palace's position as favourites, they have won only one of their last six league meetings with Charlton (D1 L4), though it was the most recent, 3-2 at Selhurst Park in last season's WSL2.

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V BIRMINGHAM CITY

The weekend's action concludes at the Copperjax Community Stadium as London City Lionesses aim to return to winning ways against Birmingham City.

London City were beaten 2-1 by Man City last time out, but they have won five of their last six WSL home games (L1), having won just three of their first nine (D1 L5) in the competition. They could, however, lose consecutive home league games for the first time since a run of four between December 2025 and March 2026.

And they face a Birmingham side who have taken four points from their last three WSL games (W1 D1 L1), twice as many as across their opening five this season (D2 L3).

However, following their 4-1 defeat to Spurs last time out, the Blues could lose successive matches in the competition for the first time since May 2022 (vs Chelsea and Man City).

London City are winless in their last four league games against Birmingham (D1 L3), since a 1-0 away win in February 2023 in the WSL, but that stretch is expected to end here.

The pre-match predictions are in, and London City are assigned a 66.4% win probability to Birmingham's 15.3%, while a draw is given an 18.3% chance of happening.

And you can expect goals, too. London City have scored in each of their last 13 WSL games, since a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal in March, more than doubling their previous longest scoring streak (six). They have netted 30 goals during this run, compared with just 18 across their first 17 WSL matches.

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