Dodge’s return to NASCAR marks a significant moment for the sport, which will once again have four manufacturers competing at the highest level. But while the announcement has generated plenty of excitement, Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn’t expecting the returning brand to have an easy ride when it finally hits the track.

After a 14-year absence, Dodge is finally bringing its muscle back to NASCAR’s premier division. The manufacturer officially confirmed its 2027 Cup Series return at the SEMA Show in Las Vegas, with Kaulig Racing preparing to field two Dodge Charger entries.

While the comeback has generated plenty of excitement, the NASCAR Hall of Famer believes the combination of a new OEM and a developing Cup organization could make the initial transition particularly difficult.

“They know that, and they’re not ready for it, but they know it’s going to be part of the process. It’s going to be some tough road. It’s going to be a tough road ahead,” he added.

Dale Jr. believes Dodge will need considerable time to establish itself against Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. He pointed to Toyota’s arrival in the Cup Series in 2007 as an example of why a new manufacturer should not expect immediate success.

Toyota entered NASCAR’s premier division with four major organizations: Joe Gibbs Racing, Bill Davis Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, and Team Red Bull. Despite that backing, its inaugural season produced no victories. Dave Blaney secured Toyota’s first Cup pole at New Hampshire in June 2007, but the manufacturer had to wait until March 2008 for Kyle Busch to deliver its maiden victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the No. 18 JGR Toyota.

Toyota’s progress came in stages. Kyle Busch won eight races in 2008 overall. However, its first major championship at NASCAR’s top level took longer. Busch secured Toyota’s first Cup Series drivers’ title in 2015, followed by the manufacturer’s first Cup Series championship in 2016.

That development curve is precisely what Dale Jr. expects Dodge to experience. He also believes an immediate breakthrough could create an entirely different problem. If a new manufacturer enters such a technically advanced competition and starts winning immediately, established competitors will inevitably question whether it has a competitive advantage. Dodge will need time to develop its equipment without attracting that kind of scrutiny.

Kaulig Racing’s current position adds another challenge. Dale Jr. described the organization as a scrappy team that has managed to get results but is not yet an A-level or even B-level Cup operation. He estimated its competitive standing somewhere between 15th and 25th, suggesting that building a new manufacturer program around the team will require significant improvement.

The team’s recent results offer some context. In 2025, AJ Allmendinger finished 26th in the driver standings, recording two top-five and seven top-10 finishes. Ty Dillon ended the season 33rd with one top-10 result. Allmendinger also secured a pole at Bristol, but neither driver managed a race victory.

The 2026 campaign has brought limited progress. Through 35 races, Allmendinger sits 25th in the standings with one top-five and four top-10 finishes. Dillon is 34th without a top-10 result. Although the team has shown occasional flashes of competitiveness, it has not consistently challenged the established front-running organizations.

The development schedule makes the task even more demanding. Dodge could have taken three years to prepare its comeback, but Stellantis executive Tim Kuniskis opted for a much faster approach.

“Everyone said it was impossible to get back in one year. We said, ‘watch this,’” Kuniskis explained. He acknowledged that developing the program on an accelerated schedule would make the process considerably harder. NASCAR has confirmed that Dodge’s car cleared the initial wind-tunnel stage, although production-panel approval remained part of the development process.

Dodge does have a championship-winning history to build upon. Its previous Cup Series stint from 2001 through 2012 produced 57 victories. Brad Keselowski delivered its final championship in 2012, winning five races in the No. 2 Team Penske Dodge. However, Penske switched to Ford for 2013, leaving Dodge without a Cup Series operation.

Despite his concerns, Dale Jr. sees a potential fit between Dodge’s unapologetic attitude and Kaulig’s scrappy identity. Both sides appear willing to challenge the established order. But as his warning makes clear, returning to NASCAR is one thing. Building a competitive Cup Series operation is an entirely different battle.

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